Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
No flips have been recorded on these candles yet.
What happened after Lighter's weekly flips, measured in Bitcoin
There are too few flips here to say anything about what follows them.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 30 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 90 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 30 | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 90 | – | – | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Bitstamp. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 weeks) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 0 | – |
| After bearish flips | 0 | – |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 weeks. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
No flips have been recorded on these candles yet.
Lighter, weekly flips: 0 flips
No flips have been recorded for this coin on this timeframe yet.
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
There are no flips here yet. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.