Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Numeraire's weekly flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. The bullish median is outside the range of ordinary days, which about 1 cell in 20 is by chance alone.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 7 of 7 | −15.1% | −39.6% to +34.8% (98%) | −8.1% to +5.3% | outside the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 7 of 7 | −10.7% | −38.6% to +4.3% (98%) | −17.6% to +12.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 7 of 7 | −38.8% | −47.1% to +2.6% (98%) | −32.2% to +14.5% | outside the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 7 of 7 | +1.1% | −22.3% to +11.6% (98%) | −8.1% to +5.3% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 7 of 7 | −8.6% | −33.1% to +15.2% (98%) | −17.6% to +12.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 6 of 7 | −27.8% | −41.3% to +67.6% (97%) | −38.1% to +8.8% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 16 May 2021, for comparison | 7 | 1,959 days | −1.6% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 1,936 days | −4.9% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,876 days | −10.9% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest flip is too recent to count in the 90 day column.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 weeks) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 1 of 7 |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 0 of 7 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 weeks. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Numeraire's weekly line has flipped 2.6 times a year since 16 May 2021.
Numeraire, weekly flips: 14 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2026Lasted 5 weeks so far | Bear | 0.0001189 BTC | −4.6% | −4.3% | not yet | +3.2% so far |
| 17 May 2026Lasted 14 weeks | Bull | 0.0001255 BTC | −14.1% | +3.3% | +2.6% | −5.3% |
| 12 Oct 2025Lasted 31 weeks | Bear | 0.0001184 BTC | +4.0% | −12.3% | −5.6% | +6.0% |
| 31 Aug 2025Lasted 6 weeks | Bull | 0.0001368 BTC | +34.8% | +4.3% | −9.9% | −13.5% |
| 14 Apr 2024Lasted 72 weeks | Bear | 0.0003785 BTC | +8.5% | +4.5% | −41.3% | −63.8% |
| 4 Feb 2024Lasted 10 weeks | Bull | 0.0006420 BTC | −22.0% | −18.9% | −38.8% | −41.1% |
| 10 Sep 2023Lasted 21 weeks | Bear | 0.0005120 BTC | −8.3% | −13.1% | −27.8% | +25.4% |
| 3 Sep 2023Lasted 1 week | Bull | 0.0007497 BTC | −31.7% | −38.6% | −46.7% | −31.7% |
| 26 Mar 2023Lasted 23 weeks | Bear | 0.0006511 BTC | +1.1% | −8.6% | −33.7% | +15.1% |
| 3 Jul 2022Lasted 38 weeks | Bull | 0.0008894 BTC | −15.1% | +3.4% | −14.3% | −26.8% |
| 8 May 2022Lasted 8 weeks | Bear | 0.0005617 BTC | −22.3% | −33.1% | +67.6% | +58.3% |
| 27 Feb 2022Lasted 10 weeks | Bull | 0.0007730 BTC | −3.0% | −10.7% | −47.1% | −27.3% |
| 27 Jun 2021Lasted 35 weeks | Bear | 0.0008186 BTC | +11.6% | +15.2% | +19.8% | −5.6% |
| 16 May 2021Lasted 6 weeks | Bull | 0.001641 BTC | −39.6% | −38.2% | −46.1% | −50.1% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 16 May 2021, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
14 flips are a small sample. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.