How this is measured

We tested whether other settings for the trend line, or other rules, would have followed the price swings more closely than the published one. None did on every measure we fixed before looking, so the published line stays as it is.

In all we tried 57 settings and filters in 103 combinations of rule and candle size on daily and weekly candles; the last study also scored five of the rules on 4-hour candles. They ran on 129 coins with at least three years of history, and the last study added 91 more (220 coins in all). Two alternatives to the whole-market score were tested too, breadth alone and Bitcoin alone; neither came out ahead on every measure. Monthly lines and the lines measured in Bitcoin were not tested.

The last study, of 10 October 2026, dated every rise and fall of 20% or more on daily candles after the fact, from one turning point to the next (10,161 such swings on 220 coins), and asked how closely each rule followed them. 22.8% of the published line's 10,818 flips pointed against the swing under way, and it never turned with 19.7% of the swings before they ended. Calmer settings changed the label less often and missed more swings: a calmer setting of the same line (a wider band) had 4.3 percentage points fewer flips against the swing and missed 5.3 points more swings, on the same coins and dates. For swings of 15% to 30% the published line followed them most closely of the rules tried; on larger moves of 40% or more, the rules agreed with the swing about as often. Swings dated afterwards describe the past; they are not a forecast.

For altcoins on daily candles, after 2022, line factors from 2 to 3 gave similar results: the 30-day gap between what followed bullish and bearish flips was 2.4 to 5.0 points, against 3.4 for the published setting, and none of the 90-day differences was clear. Before 2022 the published setting was at the low end of that range, and a factor of 1.5 separated what followed clearly less in both periods. For Bitcoin, one series with 45 daily flips since 2022, the evidence is too thin to defend or replace its setting. That the published setting sat in a flat area does not show it was chosen without hindsight.

Rules that wait for extra closes, demand a margin beyond the line, or use a slower factor changed the label less often or later. They did not clearly improve how well it separated what followed after 2022, and the margin rules fell further from the peak before turning bearish. Filters that go neutral when the trend looks weak made the label change more often, not less (daily: 15 to 86 changes per coin per year, against 14), and the flips they let through were followed by much the same results as the rest.

For altcoins on weekly candles the published setting sits next to a cliff: a wider band turned later and separated what followed less (the 90-day gap fell by 12 to 26 points; the 95% intervals are wide, because they rest on only 19 calendar quarters). Bitcoin's weekly line has only 4 flips since 2022 and shows no such pattern.

Coins tend to turn together: on 69% of the days we looked at (each coin on each day), a coin's daily trend matched Bitcoin's. About 50% would be expected by chance; it was 63% to 65% in 2025 and 2026, and 80% in 2022. After 2022 the 30-day median gap between bullish and bearish flips was +3.3 points, but “about zero” (−0.2 points, 95% interval −0.7 to +0.2) once each flip is compared with all coins on the same dates. That holds for medians; by averages the same-date gap is +2.4 points (95% interval 0.2 to 5.2), driven by a few large rises. The 95% interval for the raw gap includes zero.

On 4-hour candles, scored against the same daily swings, the published line flipped about 89 times a year per coin and 44.8% of its flips pointed against the swing under way.

From 11 Oct 2026, the daily state of market-v2.0 is compared with that of market-v1.2 on live candles only, candles that closed after the rules were fixed. Each rise and fall of 20% or more in the total market value is dated after the fact, and three things are counted for each rule set: the swings it never turned with, the days it pointed the same way as the swing under way, and its flips that went against the swing.

Until 11 Oct 2028 every figure is descriptive only. Then market-v2.0 is judged against market-v1.2 under bounds fixed before the test began: at most 5 percentage points more swings missed, at most 3 points fewer days pointing with the swing, at most 5 points more flips against it, and no interval entirely on the far side. Swings of 30% or more, weekly candles and the median coin are read beside it, as named secondary readings.