Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Aethir's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 14 of 14 | −2.2% | −9.1% to +4.4% (94%) | −9.2% to +2.7% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 13 of 14 | −8.8% | −18.9% to +3.7% (91%) | −23.2% to +5.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 11 of 14 | −22.9% | −25.6% to −15.6% (93%) | −41.2% to −9.8% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 13 of 13 | +6.2% | −3.8% to +10.4% (91%) | −8.7% to +3.7% | outside the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 12 of 13 | −2.5% | −19.9% to +24.3% (96%) | −27.7% to +3.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 11 of 13 | −20.7% | −27.5% to −15.1% (93%) | −41.2% to −9.8% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 10 Apr 2025, for comparison | 7 | 535 days | −2.8% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 512 days | −7.5% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 452 days | −21.1% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest five flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Coinbase. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 14 | 1 of 14 |
| After bearish flips | 13 | 1 of 13 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Aethir's daily line has flipped 18.2 times a year since 10 Apr 2025.
Aethir, daily flips: 27 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026Lasted 14 days so far | Bull | 0.00000006561 BTC | +15.2% | not yet | not yet | +31.4% so far |
| 4 Sep 2026Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.00000005752 BTC | +4.7% | not yet | not yet | +14.1% |
| 23 Aug 2026Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00000006265 BTC | −2.2% | +6.2% | not yet | −8.2% |
| 27 Jul 2026Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.00000006374 BTC | −3.8% | +0.8% | not yet | −1.7% |
| 19 Jul 2026Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00000007189 BTC | −6.5% | −18.9% | not yet | −11.3% |
| 4 Jun 2026Lasted 45 days | Bear | 0.00000007460 BTC | −5.9% | −2.5% | −19.7% | −3.6% |
| 26 May 2026Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00000008796 BTC | −9.1% | −21.0% | −25.6% | −15.2% |
| 15 May 2026Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.00000007754 BTC | +6.2% | −6.4% | −20.7% | +13.4% |
| 6 May 2026Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00000008141 BTC | +0.7% | −13.1% | −25.0% | −4.8% |
| 24 Mar 2026Lasted 43 days | Bear | 0.00000009698 BTC | +8.2% | −19.9% | −24.1% | −16.0% |
| 19 Mar 2026Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00000009854 BTC | +8.2% | −20.1% | −24.9% | −1.6% |
| 14 Mar 2026Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.00000008142 BTC | +41.1% | +7.7% | −15.1% | +21.0% |
| 27 Feb 2026Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.00000009019 BTC | +4.4% | +15.5% | −10.7% | −9.7% |
| 21 Feb 2026Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00000008197 BTC | +10.4% | +24.3% | +0.4% | +10.0% |
| 14 Feb 2026Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00000009386 BTC | −12.7% | −6.8% | −17.4% | −12.7% |
| 15 Jan 2026Lasted 30 days | Bear | 0.0000001050 BTC | −7.8% | −10.6% | −21.4% | −10.6% |
| 5 Jan 2026Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0000001276 BTC | −15.6% | −29.7% | −22.9% | −17.7% |
| 30 Sep 2025Lasted 97 days | Bear | 0.0000004145 BTC | +7.7% | −44.9% | −74.3% | −69.2% |
| 8 Sep 2025Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.0000004064 BTC | +37.0% | +3.7% | −63.6% | +2.0% |
| 4 Sep 2025Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.0000002699 BTC | +59.0% | +58.6% | −41.4% | +50.6% |
| 4 Aug 2025Lasted 31 days | Bull | 0.0000003103 BTC | −6.7% | −10.1% | −15.6% | −13.0% |
| 1 Aug 2025Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.0000002713 BTC | +14.2% | +5.7% | −15.8% | +14.4% |
| 15 Jul 2025Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.0000002810 BTC | +4.0% | +2.3% | +53.5% | −3.5% |
| 12 Jun 2025Lasted 33 days | Bear | 0.0000004251 BTC | −27.2% | −42.7% | −5.9% | −33.9% |
| 2 May 2025Lasted 41 days | Bull | 0.0000003523 BTC | −0.8% | +28.1% | −19.9% | +20.7% |
| 13 Apr 2025Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.0000003358 BTC | −3.4% | +39.1% | −27.5% | +4.9% |
| 10 Apr 2025Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.0000003997 BTC | −21.6% | −8.8% | −38.4% | −16.0% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 10 Apr 2025, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
27 flips are a small sample. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.