Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Aptos's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 31 of 31 | −3.8% | −6.8% to +1.9% (93%) | −5.5% to +1.4% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 30 of 31 | −9.0% | −16.3% to −4.3% (90%) | −15.2% to −4.1% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 29 of 31 | −25.4% | −29.7% to −13.4% (94%) | −32.3% to −17.2% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 30 of 30 | −0.4% | −5.9% to +1.9% (90%) | −5.9% to +1.2% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 29 of 30 | −9.1% | −16.2% to −1.9% (94%) | −14.6% to −3.2% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 29 of 30 | −26.6% | −31.0% to −13.4% (94%) | −32.3% to −17.2% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 2 Jan 2023, for comparison | 7 | 1,364 days | −2.5% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 1,341 days | −9.1% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,281 days | −26.3% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest three flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 31 | 2 of 31 |
| After bearish flips | 30 | 1 of 30 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Aptos's daily line has flipped 16.3 times a year since 2 Jan 2023.
Aptos, daily flips: 61 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026Lasted 15 days so far | Bull | 0.000009050 BTC | +14.6% | not yet | not yet | +4.8% so far |
| 15 Sep 2026Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.000007231 BTC | +33.0% | not yet | not yet | +25.2% |
| 2 Sep 2026Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.000007577 BTC | +5.7% | +23.9% | not yet | −4.6% |
| 15 May 2026Lasted 110 days | Bear | 0.00001249 BTC | −0.4% | −17.1% | −29.4% | −39.3% |
| 16 Apr 2026Lasted 29 days | Bull | 0.00001331 BTC | −8.6% | −9.0% | −27.7% | −6.1% |
| 30 Mar 2026Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.00001334 BTC | −8.6% | −2.0% | −27.8% | −0.2% |
| 20 Mar 2026Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00001405 BTC | +4.6% | −12.3% | −27.3% | −5.1% |
| 12 Mar 2026Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.00001300 BTC | +4.4% | −9.1% | −22.3% | +8.1% |
| 25 Feb 2026Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.00001478 BTC | −6.1% | −0.6% | −13.4% | −12.1% |
| 16 Jan 2026Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.00001872 BTC | −7.4% | −27.5% | −28.9% | −21.0% |
| 27 Dec 2025Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.00001997 BTC | +5.0% | −12.1% | −26.4% | −6.2% |
| 21 Nov 2025Lasted 36 days | Bear | 0.00002813 BTC | −15.6% | −36.9% | −54.1% | −29.0% |
| 7 Nov 2025Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.00003063 BTC | +0.9% | −38.3% | −46.5% | −8.1% |
| 10 Oct 2025Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.00003249 BTC | −7.7% | −4.8% | −38.6% | −5.7% |
| 1 Oct 2025Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00004111 BTC | +2.1% | −27.7% | −52.8% | −21.0% |
| 15 Sep 2025Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.00003796 BTC | +0.6% | −16.2% | −51.8% | +8.3% |
| 9 Aug 2025Lasted 37 days | Bull | 0.00004107 BTC | −1.6% | −4.3% | −25.4% | −7.6% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.00004051 BTC | −5.9% | +1.3% | −26.6% | +1.4% |
| 17 Jul 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00004439 BTC | −11.9% | −9.0% | −28.4% | −8.7% |
| 4 Jul 2025Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00004078 BTC | +1.9% | −9.3% | +6.3% | +8.8% |
| 24 Jun 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00004673 BTC | −9.1% | −16.3% | −18.3% | −12.7% |
| 15 May 2025Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.00005120 BTC | −0.1% | −17.4% | −20.0% | −8.7% |
| 10 May 2025Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00005797 BTC | −15.1% | −22.5% | −31.4% | −11.7% |
| 3 May 2025Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.00005407 BTC | +7.2% | −14.6% | −31.0% | +7.2% |
| 20 Apr 2025Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00005952 BTC | −3.8% | −19.0% | −24.1% | −9.2% |
| 4 Mar 2025Lasted 47 days | Bear | 0.00006244 BTC | +2.5% | −2.6% | −26.0% | −4.7% |
| 26 Feb 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00007015 BTC | −2.3% | −6.3% | −29.7% | −11.0% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 79 days | Bear | 0.0001228 BTC | +6.9% | −22.8% | −43.4% | −42.9% |
| 3 Dec 2024Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0001514 BTC | −20.5% | −36.7% | −56.0% | −18.9% |
| 13 Nov 2024Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.0001297 BTC | −3.7% | +8.0% | −52.7% | +16.7% |
| 11 Nov 2024Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.0001548 BTC | −13.9% | −17.8% | −60.4% | −16.2% |
| 25 Oct 2024Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.0001342 BTC | −4.1% | −4.7% | −40.3% | +15.3% |
| 19 Sep 2024Lasted 36 days | Bull | 0.0001082 BTC | +14.5% | +31.3% | +9.1% | +24.0% |
| 5 Sep 2024Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.0001029 BTC | +3.3% | +34.9% | +39.4% | +5.2% |
| 27 Aug 2024Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.0001150 BTC | −7.2% | +7.7% | +10.6% | −10.5% |
| 17 Aug 2024Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00009800 BTC | +13.7% | +0.8% | +33.2% | +17.3% |
| 10 Aug 2024Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.0001029 BTC | −4.8% | +7.3% | +23.4% | −4.8% |
| 25 Jul 2024Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.0001006 BTC | −2.5% | +10.8% | +48.0% | +2.3% |
| 17 Jul 2024Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.0001100 BTC | −5.3% | −8.6% | +41.9% | −8.5% |
| 7 Jun 2024Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.0001239 BTC | −6.0% | −19.3% | −16.9% | −11.2% |
| 27 May 2024Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.0001391 BTC | −6.8% | −19.1% | −17.8% | −11.0% |
| 4 Apr 2024Lasted 53 days | Bear | 0.0002067 BTC | −18.1% | −30.9% | −47.0% | −32.7% |
| 28 Feb 2024Lasted 36 days | Bull | 0.0001981 BTC | +4.6% | +24.4% | −30.9% | +4.3% |
| 8 Feb 2024Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.0001934 BTC | +1.3% | −0.5% | −27.4% | +2.4% |
| 13 Jan 2024Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.0002335 BTC | −11.9% | −21.4% | −37.7% | −17.2% |
| 3 Jan 2024Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.0002114 BTC | −9.9% | +3.0% | +6.2% | +10.4% |
| 24 Dec 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0002166 BTC | +2.5% | +1.2% | +16.5% | −2.4% |
| 18 Dec 2023Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.0001847 BTC | +29.3% | +18.1% | +11.0% | +17.2% |
| 8 Dec 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0001923 BTC | +1.9% | +0.3% | +3.0% | −3.9% |
| 29 Nov 2023Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.0001855 BTC | −9.1% | +24.0% | −6.0% | +3.6% |
| 21 Oct 2023Lasted 39 days | Bull | 0.0001854 BTC | +8.3% | +3.7% | +11.1% | +0.1% |
| 3 Oct 2023Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.0001950 BTC | −8.0% | −1.9% | +15.3% | −4.9% |
| 24 Sep 2023Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.0002029 BTC | −0.1% | −8.5% | +5.1% | −3.9% |
| 15 Aug 2023Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.0002236 BTC | +0.4% | −12.0% | −10.1% | −9.3% |
| 9 Aug 2023Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0002505 BTC | −14.1% | −15.0% | −18.0% | −10.7% |
| 2 Aug 2023Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.0002351 BTC | +6.5% | −9.3% | −13.4% | +6.5% |
| 17 Jul 2023Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.0002593 BTC | −6.8% | −17.0% | −30.0% | −9.3% |
| 5 Jun 2023Lasted 42 days | Bear | 0.0003154 BTC | −23.4% | −22.7% | −33.3% | −17.8% |
| 2 Jun 2023Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.0003319 BTC | −15.3% | −27.9% | −36.0% | −5.0% |
| 9 Feb 2023Lasted 113 days | Bear | 0.0006121 BTC | +2.0% | −16.7% | −49.1% | −45.8% |
| 2 Jan 2023Lasted 38 days | Bull | 0.0002255 BTC | +34.5% | +241.3% | +91.4% | +171.4% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 2 Jan 2023, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
61 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.