Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Arkham's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 27 of 27 | −3.5% | −7.9% to +1.4% (95%) | −6.7% to +2.0% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 26 of 27 | −7.8% | −13.9% to +4.9% (92%) | −16.8% to +0.4% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 25 of 27 | −18.4% | −30.1% to +6.4% (96%) | −34.4% to −1.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 26 of 26 | −2.5% | −5.8% to +5.0% (92%) | −7.1% to +1.4% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 25 of 26 | −1.3% | −20.6% to +4.8% (96%) | −16.4% to +1.6% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 25 of 26 | −26.3% | −35.8% to −0.9% (96%) | −34.4% to −1.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 18 Aug 2023, for comparison | 7 | 1,136 days | −3.0% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 1,113 days | −8.2% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,053 days | −22.3% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest three flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 27 | 1 of 27 |
| After bearish flips | 26 | 1 of 26 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Arkham's daily line has flipped 17.0 times a year since 18 Aug 2023.
Arkham, daily flips: 53 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep 2026Lasted 12 days so far | Bull | 0.000001474 BTC | +8.5% | not yet | not yet | +6.8% so far |
| 4 Sep 2026Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.000001328 BTC | −2.5% | not yet | not yet | +11.0% |
| 23 Aug 2026Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.000001456 BTC | −6.2% | +5.5% | not yet | −8.8% |
| 10 Jun 2026Lasted 74 days | Bear | 0.000001792 BTC | +12.9% | −0.2% | −22.6% | −18.7% |
| 21 May 2026Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.000001739 BTC | +7.8% | +18.0% | −22.7% | +3.0% |
| 17 May 2026Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000001492 BTC | +18.4% | +39.7% | −3.1% | +16.5% |
| 6 May 2026Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000001660 BTC | −0.2% | +14.5% | −10.4% | −10.1% |
| 27 Apr 2026Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.000001492 BTC | −2.2% | +30.4% | +10.7% | +11.3% |
| 15 Apr 2026Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.000001509 BTC | +1.4% | +4.9% | +12.7% | −1.2% |
| 20 Mar 2026Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.000001532 BTC | −6.6% | +15.8% | +37.9% | −1.5% |
| 13 Mar 2026Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000001593 BTC | −3.9% | −13.9% | +20.0% | −3.9% |
| 12 Jan 2026Lasted 60 days | Bear | 0.000002136 BTC | −5.0% | −20.4% | −35.8% | −25.4% |
| 3 Jan 2026Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.000002273 BTC | −0.3% | −24.6% | −36.9% | −6.0% |
| 22 Sep 2025Lasted 103 days | Bear | 0.000004882 BTC | −7.9% | −35.5% | −56.1% | −53.4% |
| 8 Sep 2025Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.000005167 BTC | +1.0% | −15.9% | −53.5% | −5.5% |
| 4 Sep 2025Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000004154 BTC | +35.3% | +4.8% | −37.9% | +24.4% |
| 9 Aug 2025Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.000004662 BTC | +2.0% | +10.8% | −27.2% | −10.9% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.000004623 BTC | −5.8% | +3.6% | −29.3% | +0.9% |
| 29 Jun 2025Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.000004504 BTC | −7.9% | −0.8% | +5.3% | +2.6% |
| 16 May 2025Lasted 44 days | Bear | 0.000006340 BTC | −3.4% | −29.6% | −26.3% | −29.0% |
| 9 May 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000006176 BTC | +2.7% | −19.3% | −30.1% | +2.7% |
| 3 May 2025Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.000005560 BTC | +23.2% | −5.0% | −27.1% | +11.1% |
| 19 Apr 2025Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.000006065 BTC | +9.4% | +0.7% | −21.1% | −8.3% |
| 31 Mar 2025Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.000006130 BTC | −9.3% | +1.0% | −26.5% | −1.1% |
| 22 Mar 2025Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.000007478 BTC | −13.6% | −22.7% | −43.6% | −18.0% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 103 days | Bear | 0.00001986 BTC | −5.4% | −28.0% | −69.3% | −62.3% |
| 30 Nov 2024Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00002501 BTC | −3.5% | −38.3% | −69.2% | −20.6% |
| 12 Nov 2024Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.00002491 BTC | −12.2% | −16.7% | −72.7% | +0.4% |
| 6 Nov 2024Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00002811 BTC | −18.8% | −10.0% | −71.2% | −11.4% |
| 25 Oct 2024Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.00002244 BTC | +7.5% | −0.7% | −47.5% | +25.2% |
| 20 Sep 2024Lasted 35 days | Bull | 0.00001894 BTC | +20.7% | +38.3% | −18.4% | +18.5% |
| 17 Sep 2024Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.00001665 BTC | +39.6% | +53.7% | +12.9% | +13.8% |
| 12 Sep 2024Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00001875 BTC | −4.9% | +53.6% | +6.7% | −11.2% |
| 29 Aug 2024Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.00001808 BTC | −7.4% | +24.4% | +27.8% | +3.7% |
| 23 Aug 2024Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00002010 BTC | −9.4% | −7.8% | +6.4% | −10.1% |
| 1 Jul 2024Lasted 53 days | Bear | 0.00002496 BTC | −1.7% | −21.5% | −0.9% | −19.5% |
| 24 Jun 2024Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00003224 BTC | −22.6% | −35.1% | −42.5% | −22.6% |
| 8 Jun 2024Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.00003253 BTC | −13.4% | −24.6% | −46.6% | −0.9% |
| 31 May 2024Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00003857 BTC | −10.2% | −26.0% | −53.1% | −15.6% |
| 16 May 2024Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.00003549 BTC | −2.0% | −20.6% | −51.4% | +8.7% |
| 20 Apr 2024Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.00003115 BTC | +8.1% | +16.5% | −21.1% | +13.9% |
| 19 Mar 2024Lasted 32 days | Bear | 0.00003844 BTC | +5.8% | −31.1% | −33.9% | −19.0% |
| 16 Feb 2024Lasted 32 days | Bull | 0.00001473 BTC | +79.1% | +193.7% | +140.9% | +161.0% |
| 4 Feb 2024Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.00001185 BTC | +5.0% | +202.2% | +202.5% | +24.2% |
| 16 Jan 2024Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.00001425 BTC | −12.9% | −11.5% | +72.0% | −16.8% |
| 6 Jan 2024Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00001250 BTC | +3.5% | −3.4% | +157.0% | +14.0% |
| 2 Dec 2023Lasted 35 days | Bull | 0.00001357 BTC | −12.3% | +1.2% | +216.4% | −7.9% |
| 17 Nov 2023Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.00001166 BTC | +7.2% | +25.5% | +8.1% | +16.4% |
| 11 Nov 2023Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00001158 BTC | −2.6% | −0.5% | +9.2% | +0.7% |
| 3 Oct 2023Lasted 39 days | Bear | 0.00001392 BTC | −11.7% | −27.2% | −1.3% | −16.8% |
| 30 Sep 2023Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.00001541 BTC | −13.9% | −25.6% | −6.3% | −9.7% |
| 4 Sep 2023Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.00001468 BTC | −9.9% | −1.3% | −10.7% | +5.0% |
| 18 Aug 2023Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.00001554 BTC | −4.1% | −13.5% | −17.1% | −5.5% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 18 Aug 2023, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
53 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.