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MarketRenderUpdated 4 Oct 2026, 00:08 UTC00:08 UTC
Rule set flip-line-v1.0, append-only

Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.

A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.

Arkham's 4-hour trend26 Jul 2023 to now
274flips
3 days 12 hourstypical run
15 dayslongest run
BullishBearish

What happened after Arkham's 4-hour flips

After bullish flips the median price was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.

90 days after a bullish flip−14.7%Median of 128 flips; 9 are too recent
90 days after a bearish flip−19.1%Median of 127 flips; 10 are too recent
90 days after any day−12.9%1,076 days since 26 Jul 2023
What happened after Arkham's 4-hour flips
Which flipsDays laterFlips countedMedian changeRange of the medianOrdinary daysAgainst ordinary days
After bullish flips7137 of 137−2.8%−4.9% to +0.4% (91%)−4.8% to +0.3%within the range of ordinary days
30133 of 137−8.1%−13.4% to −5.4% (92%)−12.0% to 0.0%within the range of ordinary days
90128 of 137−14.7%−24.9% to −4.5% (91%)−25.1% to −1.3%within the range of ordinary days
After bearish flips7136 of 137−1.6%−4.9% to +0.3% (93%)−5.0% to +0.2%within the range of ordinary days
30133 of 137−7.6%−11.0% to −2.3% (92%)−12.0% to 0.0%within the range of ordinary days
90127 of 137−19.1%−24.6% to −6.2% (92%)−24.2% to −0.9%within the range of ordinary days
Any day since 26 Jul 2023, for comparison71,159 days−2.5%–––
301,136 days−5.9%–––
901,076 days−12.9%–––

Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.

Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.

Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.

The latest 19 flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.

Prices are 4-hour closes on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.

How soon flips were reversed

How soon flips were reversed
Which flipsFlipsReversed within 3 candles (12 hours)
After bullish flips1375 of 137
After bearish flips1372 of 137

A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 12 hours. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.

Arkham's 4-hour line has flipped 85.9 times a year since 26 Jul 2023, 20:00 UTC.

On 4-hour candles the line flips often, and nearly every flip is reversed within 30 days, so the 7-, 30- and 90-day columns mostly show where the market drifted, not what the flip did.

Arkham, 4-hour flips: 137 bullish flips of 274

Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.

Arkham, 4-hour flips: 137 bullish flips of 274
Candle closedFlipped toPrice at the flip7 days later30 days later90 days laterUntil the next flip
25 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 daysBull$0.1328−0.5%not yetnot yet−0.6%
17 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 daysBull$0.1011+20.5%not yetnot yet+20.7%
13 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hoursBull$0.1038+8.7%not yetnot yet−4.7%
7 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hoursBull$0.1136−10.4%not yetnot yet−6.1%
23 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 7 days 8 hoursBull$0.1125+0.2%+13.5%not yet−5.7%
19 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hoursBull$0.08930+23.2%+14.1%not yet+15.8%
5 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 6 daysBull$0.09690−2.2%+12.9%not yet−1.4%
21 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hoursBull$0.1080−6.4%−13.7%not yet−0.5%
15 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hoursBull$0.1128−0.5%−17.2%not yet−3.6%
3 Jul 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 daysBull$0.1209−7.8%−23.5%+9.6%−5.2%
11 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 6 days 20 hoursBull$0.1215+7.4%−5.6%−10.5%+6.1%
3 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 20 hoursBull$0.1523−21.0%−25.3%−29.2%−13.7%
30 May 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hoursBull$0.1480−21.6%−23.4%−21.9%−10.7%
23 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hoursBull$0.1404+0.8%−9.0%−30.6%+3.1%
20 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hoursBull$0.1244+23.6%+6.9%−28.7%+3.0%
13 May 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 16 hoursBull$0.1465−20.1%−17.0%−34.3%−9.3%
8 May 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 4 daysBull$0.1440−5.7%−20.8%−33.5%−5.8%
6 May 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 dayBull$0.1314+6.2%+2.7%−28.2%−1.6%
2 May 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hoursBull$0.1154+24.9%+24.1%−18.4%+1.0%
14 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 7 days 20 hoursBull$0.1030+29.6%+27.6%+7.1%+18.5%
6 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 6 days 20 hoursBull$0.09800−1.0%+25.0%+20.8%−2.0%
1 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hoursBull$0.1010+1.0%+9.2%+13.9%−5.9%
25 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hoursBull$0.1080−10.2%+13.2%+16.7%−6.5%
11 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 6 days 16 hoursBull$0.1060+14.2%−5.7%+14.5%+8.5%
1 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 5 days 16 hoursBull$0.1090−7.3%−12.8%+29.8%−5.5%
25 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hoursBull$0.1110−2.7%−8.1%+31.3%−1.8%
20 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hoursBull$0.1140−4.4%−9.6%+9.0%−4.4%
14 Feb 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hoursBull$0.1230−6.5%−4.1%+10.4%−5.7%
6 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 16 hoursBull$0.1270−9.4%−20.5%+6.5%−9.4%
29 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 8 hoursBull$0.1810−26.0%−40.3%−37.9%−10.5%
17 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hoursBull$0.2180−18.8%−45.4%−42.4%−11.0%
13 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hoursBull$0.2120−11.3%−46.2%−54.2%−2.4%
1 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 daysBull$0.1840+14.7%−17.4%−47.3%+14.1%
28 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hoursBull$0.1920+7.3%−12.5%−50.5%−4.7%
19 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hoursBull$0.1940−8.2%+8.8%−42.8%−5.2%
9 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 20 hoursBull$0.2320−15.1%−9.1%−57.3%−3.9%
2 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 daysBull$0.2370−5.1%−26.2%−55.7%−4.6%
27 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 daysBull$0.2580−6.6%−28.3%−59.3%−6.6%
20 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 8 hoursBull$0.2860−12.6%−31.1%−59.1%−7.3%
7 Nov 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days 16 hoursBull$0.3230−4.6%−30.3%−58.5%+0.3%
1 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hoursBull$0.3440+2.0%−32.0%−54.9%−3.8%
25 Oct 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hoursBull$0.3660−10.9%−35.5%−51.9%−2.2%
21 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 12 hoursBull$0.3840−4.2%−28.6%−49.5%−8.3%
13 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 daysBull$0.4060−8.6%−20.2%−49.5%−9.6%
5 Oct 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hoursBull$0.5610−41.2%−47.2%−64.2%−5.9%
1 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hoursBull$0.5220−0.2%−39.1%−64.8%+0.6%
29 Sep 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hoursBull$0.5370−0.6%−33.9%−64.2%−5.4%
17 Sep 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hoursBull$0.6380−16.3%−43.7%−69.1%−3.4%
7 Sep 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 8 days 8 hoursBull$0.4840+37.2%+15.9%−54.8%+26.4%
22 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hoursBull$0.5330−2.8%+15.8%−48.6%−3.8%
12 Aug 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hoursBull$0.5470−3.7%+14.1%−38.0%+2.7%
7 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 4 daysBull$0.4980+23.1%−4.2%−41.2%+4.0%
4 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 dayBull$0.4810+12.5%−0.2%−24.5%−3.5%
27 Jul 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 dayBull$0.5730−22.3%−16.1%−36.1%−5.8%
16 Jul 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 6 days 8 hoursBull$0.5580+13.3%−0.9%−24.9%+5.4%
14 Jul 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 20 hoursBull$0.5660+7.2%−4.1%−41.7%−9.5%
9 Jul 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hoursBull$0.4620+20.8%+9.7%+21.4%+11.3%
2 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 daysBull$0.4660−3.0%+2.8%+10.3%−3.9%
29 Jun 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hoursBull$0.4580−4.1%+16.8%+14.8%−2.0%
23 Jun 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 daysBull$0.4160+17.3%+51.9%+48.3%+3.1%
16 Jun 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hoursBull$0.4920−20.3%+13.4%+35.0%−6.5%
8 Jun 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hoursBull$0.5290−12.3%−15.9%−9.8%+1.3%
26 May 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hoursBull$0.6890−19.0%−33.1%−19.7%−7.1%
18 May 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hoursBull$0.6890−4.1%−31.1%−20.5%−4.6%
13 May 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hoursBull$0.7910−18.5%−32.2%−31.6%−14.5%
8 May 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 daysBull$0.5300+38.7%−5.5%−11.3%+24.5%
18 Apr 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 12 days 8 hoursBull$0.4830+16.6%+29.2%+15.5%+18.2%
9 Apr 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 5 days 20 hoursBull$0.4600−0.7%+29.1%−3.3%+0.7%
19 Mar 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 7 days 16 hoursBull$0.5570+14.9%−16.2%−14.7%+8.4%
17 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 dayBull$0.5440+14.5%−16.0%−14.7%−5.0%
11 Mar 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days 16 hoursBull$0.5740−4.9%−19.3%−8.2%−12.7%
6 Mar 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hoursBull$0.5800−9.8%−14.0%−4.8%−7.9%
27 Feb 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hoursBull$0.6480−10.5%−11.0%+6.6%−3.7%
23 Feb 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hoursBull$0.7200−12.2%−10.8%−8.7%−10.1%
21 Feb 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 8 hoursBull$0.7130−10.9%−12.1%−4.5%−6.9%
11 Feb 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 6 days 12 hoursBull$0.7110−4.4%−26.4%+0.7%−6.2%
30 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hoursBull$1.16−34.0%−44.0%−49.8%−4.2%
15 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hoursBull$1.34−8.2%−49.2%−65.0%+2.1%
2 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 5 days 16 hoursBull$1.49−8.9%−21.4%−65.9%+5.9%
24 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hoursBull$1.63−12.3%−25.2%−61.8%−9.0%
12 Dec 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hoursBull$2.12−19.6%−35.0%−75.6%−10.5%
3 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 16 hoursBull$2.38−18.8%−37.3%−71.1%+0.2%
28 Nov 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hoursBull$2.21+7.0%−32.6%−72.4%+1.4%
17 Nov 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 7 days 12 hoursBull$2.25−4.9%−11.2%−68.2%−9.9%
4 Nov 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 9 daysBull$1.67+32.1%+43.4%−37.8%+23.3%
29 Oct 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hoursBull$1.58+3.1%+40.2%−23.6%+0.9%
11 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days 4 hoursBull$1.53+13.0%+45.9%−10.9%+12.3%
6 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hoursBull$1.47+24.2%+11.1%+13.5%−4.0%
19 Sep 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 11 days 16 hoursBull$1.06+40.4%+69.0%+79.1%+41.0%
9 Sep 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 7 daysBull$0.9900+2.0%+37.6%+143.3%+2.0%
18 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days 16 hoursBull$1.07+23.9%−6.4%+93.0%+17.3%
5 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days 4 hoursBull$0.9950+1.6%−3.2%+59.6%+3.3%
26 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hoursBull$1.44−15.0%−7.7%+17.5%−3.5%
14 Jul 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 8 days 16 hoursBull$1.40+14.3%−25.5%+10.0%+6.4%
10 Jul 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hoursBull$1.48+9.0%−26.6%−1.6%−8.9%
25 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hoursBull$1.94−19.2%−29.7%−39.4%−4.9%
20 Jun 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 daysBull$1.73+15.0%−5.4%−42.1%+0.1%
12 Jun 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 dayBull$2.29−30.3%−40.6%−54.3%−11.7%
27 May 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 11 days 4 hoursBull$2.33+6.6%−13.9%−43.0%+5.4%
15 May 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 7 days 20 hoursBull$2.46+2.9%−18.5%−57.5%−3.7%
9 May 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hoursBull$2.56−5.4%−6.0%−61.0%−1.8%
3 May 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 16 hoursBull$2.02+33.0%+25.6%−37.3%+21.6%
28 Apr 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 dayBull$2.21+3.6%+5.8%−34.1%−10.4%
15 Apr 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 9 days 8 hoursBull$1.65+30.5%+35.4%−17.0%+27.7%
8 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 20 hoursBull$2.36−32.8%+5.3%−35.7%−5.8%
1 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hoursBull$2.68−15.9%−28.4%−34.3%−11.7%
25 Mar 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hoursBull$2.77−5.5%−19.3%−32.6%−0.4%
17 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hoursBull$3.10−14.6%−49.9%−39.7%−18.9%
6 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hoursBull$2.63+19.6%−17.0%−6.5%+20.6%
28 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hoursBull$1.85+23.1%+47.7%+26.3%+25.1%
22 Feb 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days 20 hoursBull$1.27+72.3%+99.4%+99.6%+13.7%
6 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 13 days 8 hoursBull$0.5265+17.3%+458.8%+400.0%+91.6%
30 Jan 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hoursBull$0.5604−8.0%+289.4%+257.7%−6.5%
26 Jan 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hoursBull$0.5305+0.5%+166.0%+295.1%−2.0%
16 Jan 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hoursBull$0.6005−16.2%+11.0%+163.8%−8.6%
11 Jan 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hoursBull$0.5567+11.7%+7.0%+261.1%−2.8%
4 Jan 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hoursBull$0.6210−10.4%−14.9%+298.8%−12.7%
2 Jan 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hoursBull$0.6228−13.7%−13.4%+319.6%−12.8%
19 Dec 2023, 08:00 UTCLasted 8 daysBull$0.6717+0.4%−7.4%+340.4%−5.3%
15 Dec 2023, 00:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hoursBull$0.4975+45.6%+11.4%+504.9%+6.7%
8 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hoursBull$0.5407−8.0%+1.6%+444.1%−6.6%
6 Dec 2023, 04:00 UTCLasted 20 hoursBull$0.5511−13.6%+13.2%+354.7%−11.1%
28 Nov 2023, 20:00 UTCLasted 5 days 16 hoursBull$0.4661+8.4%+36.9%+250.4%+6.7%
24 Nov 2023, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hoursBull$0.4380+1.2%+50.5%+171.3%+2.8%
10 Nov 2023, 12:00 UTCLasted 6 days 4 hoursBull$0.4257+9.4%+22.2%+34.7%+13.2%
9 Nov 2023, 04:00 UTCLasted 16 hoursBull$0.4013+33.0%+37.3%+30.1%−9.2%
5 Nov 2023, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hoursBull$0.3816+12.6%+32.4%+38.4%−4.8%
19 Oct 2023, 08:00 UTCLasted 12 days 8 hoursBull$0.3081+25.6%+38.6%+99.6%+17.7%
16 Oct 2023, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hoursBull$0.3418−4.9%+39.2%+62.2%−7.7%
5 Oct 2023, 04:00 UTCLasted 8 hoursBull$0.4214−19.9%−16.7%+51.9%−9.3%
25 Sep 2023, 20:00 UTCLasted 7 days 16 hoursBull$0.3814+17.0%−4.3%+72.9%+5.8%
18 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hoursBull$0.3885−8.3%−21.5%+36.1%−4.6%
15 Sep 2023, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hoursBull$0.3576+4.7%−7.4%+34.8%−0.7%
29 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 daysBull$0.3908−3.0%−1.9%+17.0%+12.7%
18 Aug 2023, 08:00 UTCLasted 6 days 20 hoursBull$0.4038+2.0%−7.8%+32.2%−1.2%
13 Aug 2023, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hoursBull$0.4431−9.3%−24.9%−6.5%−6.9%
26 Jul 2023, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 daysBull$0.5685−10.9%−27.5%−38.5%−11.1%

How to read this

Closed candles only

Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.

Compare with any day

The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 26 Jul 2023, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.

A small sample

Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.

274 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.