Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Basic Attention's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 56 of 56 | −1.6% | −3.0% to +0.9% (92%) | −4.0% to +0.7% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 55 of 56 | −7.7% | −11.1% to −3.5% (94%) | −10.6% to −1.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 55 of 56 | −16.3% | −20.4% to −7.7% (94%) | −21.6% to −7.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 56 of 56 | −0.9% | −3.0% to +0.5% (92%) | −4.0% to +0.7% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 56 of 56 | −8.0% | −12.3% to +0.3% (92%) | −10.8% to −1.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 55 of 56 | −11.0% | −19.6% to −6.7% (94%) | −21.6% to −7.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 3 Apr 2019, for comparison | 7 | 2,734 days | −1.6% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 2,711 days | −6.2% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 2,651 days | −15.6% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest two flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 56 | 2 of 56 |
| After bearish flips | 56 | 2 of 56 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Basic Attention's daily line has flipped 14.9 times a year since 3 Apr 2019.
Basic Attention, daily flips: 112 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Sep 2026Lasted 26 days so far | Bull | 0.0000009404 BTC | +5.7% | not yet | not yet | +18.8% so far |
| 12 Jul 2026Lasted 57 days | Bear | 0.000001304 BTC | −8.2% | −24.4% | not yet | −27.9% |
| 5 Jul 2026Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000001422 BTC | −8.3% | −28.0% | −21.4% | −8.3% |
| 5 Jun 2026Lasted 30 days | Bear | 0.000001391 BTC | −0.7% | +2.3% | −37.0% | +2.3% |
| 3 May 2026Lasted 33 days | Bull | 0.000001361 BTC | +0.6% | +14.8% | −23.6% | +2.2% |
| 30 Apr 2026Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.000001263 BTC | +4.5% | +28.4% | −18.4% | +7.8% |
| 20 Apr 2026Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000001427 BTC | −6.7% | −11.1% | −16.1% | −11.5% |
| 10 Apr 2026Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.000001364 BTC | −0.9% | +0.3% | −1.3% | +4.6% |
| 24 Mar 2026Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000001542 BTC | −8.5% | −14.5% | −9.1% | −11.6% |
| 26 Feb 2026Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.000001688 BTC | −14.5% | −16.2% | −20.2% | −8.6% |
| 9 Feb 2026Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000001845 BTC | +1.4% | −25.0% | −25.8% | −8.5% |
| 17 Dec 2025Lasted 54 days | Bear | 0.000002442 BTC | +3.9% | −15.3% | −40.8% | −24.4% |
| 22 Nov 2025Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.000002304 BTC | +27.7% | +3.5% | −22.0% | +6.0% |
| 14 Nov 2025Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.000001729 BTC | +20.5% | +62.3% | +13.4% | +33.2% |
| 12 Oct 2025Lasted 33 days | Bull | 0.000001534 BTC | +17.6% | +32.0% | +47.0% | +12.8% |
| 10 Oct 2025Lasted 2 days | Bear | 0.000001187 BTC | +49.9% | +70.1% | +94.0% | +29.2% |
| 9 Oct 2025Lasted 1 day | Bull | 0.000001420 BTC | +23.4% | +46.8% | +64.8% | −16.4% |
| 15 Sep 2025Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.000001339 BTC | −3.8% | +22.7% | +109.6% | +6.0% |
| 16 Aug 2025Lasted 30 days | Bull | 0.000001438 BTC | −4.6% | −6.9% | +20.3% | −6.9% |
| 11 Aug 2025Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.000001244 BTC | +6.0% | +12.5% | +62.4% | +15.6% |
| 29 Jul 2025Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.000001444 BTC | −9.8% | −1.9% | +4.0% | −13.9% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.000001325 BTC | +7.3% | +2.3% | +21.8% | +8.9% |
| 28 Jun 2025Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.000001190 BTC | −3.8% | +13.3% | +9.5% | +11.4% |
| 16 May 2025Lasted 43 days | Bear | 0.000001455 BTC | −6.7% | −18.0% | −13.9% | −18.2% |
| 9 May 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000001567 BTC | −7.2% | −19.9% | −17.0% | −7.2% |
| 4 May 2025Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.000001479 BTC | +7.2% | −13.8% | −13.3% | +6.0% |
| 20 Apr 2025Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.000001566 BTC | −1.3% | −10.4% | −11.6% | −5.6% |
| 18 Jan 2025Lasted 92 days | Bear | 0.000002381 BTC | −8.2% | −18.8% | −36.8% | −34.2% |
| 24 Dec 2024Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.000002829 BTC | −12.1% | −21.9% | −37.0% | −15.8% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.000002832 BTC | −7.7% | −8.4% | −35.5% | −0.1% |
| 16 Nov 2024Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.000002393 BTC | +6.7% | +9.2% | −18.7% | +18.3% |
| 30 Sep 2024Lasted 47 days | Bear | 0.000002827 BTC | −1.2% | −17.1% | −10.2% | −15.3% |
| 11 Sep 2024Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.000002920 BTC | −1.9% | −5.1% | −5.3% | −3.2% |
| 31 Aug 2024Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.000002766 BTC | +4.3% | +2.2% | +21.8% | +5.6% |
| 22 Aug 2024Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.000002938 BTC | −5.2% | +4.9% | −25.8% | −5.9% |
| 22 Jul 2024Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.000002873 BTC | 0.0% | +0.1% | −7.1% | +2.3% |
| 27 Jun 2024Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.000003201 BTC | −7.4% | −8.7% | −6.2% | −10.2% |
| 17 Mar 2024Lasted 102 days | Bear | 0.000004603 BTC | +0.2% | −17.2% | −30.0% | −30.5% |
| 2 Mar 2024Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.000005377 BTC | −1.6% | −15.7% | −33.1% | −14.4% |
| 27 Feb 2024Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000004692 BTC | +0.6% | +1.4% | −23.2% | +14.6% |
| 17 Feb 2024Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000004885 BTC | +2.4% | −9.9% | −25.0% | −4.0% |
| 30 Jan 2024Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.000005198 BTC | −3.3% | −12.3% | −25.0% | −6.0% |
| 11 Jan 2024Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.000005680 BTC | −1.8% | −15.6% | −19.5% | −8.5% |
| 4 Jan 2024Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.000005601 BTC | +1.4% | −9.7% | −22.6% | +1.4% |
| 25 Dec 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000006051 BTC | −1.9% | −11.0% | −23.8% | −7.4% |
| 21 Nov 2023Lasted 34 days | Bear | 0.000005501 BTC | +1.6% | +1.3% | −8.2% | +10.0% |
| 12 Nov 2023Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.000006516 BTC | −7.6% | −12.2% | −26.5% | −15.6% |
| 24 Oct 2023Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.000005922 BTC | +1.2% | −4.4% | −7.7% | +10.0% |
| 22 Oct 2023Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.000006655 BTC | −10.9% | −17.3% | −16.3% | −11.0% |
| 18 Oct 2023Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000006144 BTC | −5.7% | +1.8% | −7.1% | +8.3% |
| 8 Oct 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000006620 BTC | −2.7% | −7.7% | −20.4% | −7.2% |
| 4 Oct 2023Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000006285 BTC | −0.5% | −4.1% | −5.2% | +5.3% |
| 16 Sep 2023Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.000006645 BTC | +0.1% | −3.5% | −16.3% | −5.4% |
| 15 Aug 2023Lasted 32 days | Bear | 0.000006856 BTC | −3.0% | −5.2% | −8.0% | −3.1% |
| 24 Jun 2023Lasted 52 days | Bull | 0.000006519 BTC | +4.6% | +3.8% | +1.2% | +5.2% |
| 31 May 2023Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.000007843 BTC | −4.7% | −16.5% | −17.2% | −16.9% |
| 18 May 2023Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.000008292 BTC | −1.5% | −20.6% | −21.4% | −5.4% |
| 11 Apr 2023Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.000009308 BTC | +0.7% | −15.6% | −33.1% | −10.9% |
| 1 Apr 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000009556 BTC | +5.8% | −12.3% | −31.5% | −2.6% |
| 4 Mar 2023Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.00001161 BTC | −12.4% | −15.3% | −31.5% | −17.7% |
| 8 Jan 2023Lasted 55 days | Bull | 0.00001096 BTC | +1.9% | +17.8% | −7.7% | +5.9% |
| 9 Nov 2022Lasted 60 days | Bear | 0.00001451 BTC | −6.9% | −9.7% | −11.0% | −24.5% |
| 2 Nov 2022Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00001525 BTC | −4.8% | −9.2% | −28.4% | −4.8% |
| 17 Aug 2022Lasted 77 days | Bear | 0.00001761 BTC | −2.2% | −8.0% | −22.5% | −13.4% |
| 5 Aug 2022Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00001840 BTC | +3.8% | −5.0% | −13.0% | −4.3% |
| 17 Jul 2022Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.00001843 BTC | −6.9% | −2.1% | −19.6% | −0.2% |
| 14 Jun 2022Lasted 33 days | Bull | 0.00001321 BTC | +36.4% | +42.9% | +19.8% | +39.6% |
| 5 Apr 2022Lasted 70 days | Bear | 0.00001848 BTC | −2.9% | −13.1% | +8.6% | −28.5% |
| 13 Mar 2022Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.00001785 BTC | +11.3% | +0.6% | −34.1% | +3.5% |
| 8 Jan 2022Lasted 64 days | Bear | 0.00002450 BTC | +0.7% | −9.8% | −28.4% | −27.1% |
| 3 Jan 2022Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00002803 BTC | −14.8% | −21.8% | −27.2% | −12.6% |
| 3 Dec 2021Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.00002392 BTC | −5.5% | +14.9% | −29.9% | +17.2% |
| 29 Oct 2021Lasted 35 days | Bull | 0.00001370 BTC | +16.1% | +111.2% | +64.1% | +74.6% |
| 7 Sep 2021Lasted 52 days | Bear | 0.00001659 BTC | 0.0% | −17.8% | +62.6% | −17.4% |
| 15 Aug 2021Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.00001728 BTC | +2.3% | −3.9% | +2.7% | −4.0% |
| 9 Aug 2021Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00001517 BTC | +12.4% | +10.3% | +4.0% | +13.9% |
| 1 Aug 2021Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00001654 BTC | −7.1% | +4.6% | +21.4% | −8.3% |
| 15 Jul 2021Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.00001590 BTC | −0.1% | +4.2% | −22.6% | +4.0% |
| 30 Jun 2021Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.00001757 BTC | +3.1% | −17.2% | −19.4% | −9.5% |
| 11 Jun 2021Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.00001732 BTC | −1.6% | −5.1% | +1.1% | +1.5% |
| 26 May 2021Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00002265 BTC | −6.3% | −27.6% | −24.2% | −23.5% |
| 19 May 2021Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.00002030 BTC | +11.6% | −16.0% | −18.9% | +11.6% |
| 6 May 2021Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00002489 BTC | −3.5% | −15.1% | −32.3% | −18.5% |
| 22 Apr 2021Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.00002066 BTC | +7.4% | −12.0% | −24.2% | +20.5% |
| 3 Mar 2021Lasted 50 days | Bull | 0.00001512 BTC | −3.0% | +34.4% | +34.6% | +36.6% |
| 23 Feb 2021Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.000009748 BTC | +27.6% | +95.1% | +91.9% | +55.1% |
| 17 Jan 2021Lasted 37 days | Bull | 0.000007636 BTC | +29.3% | +48.5% | +221.2% | +27.7% |
| 11 Dec 2020Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.00001125 BTC | −4.0% | −40.0% | +23.5% | −32.1% |
| 21 Nov 2020Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.00001249 BTC | +3.7% | −21.2% | −12.1% | −10.0% |
| 2 Sep 2020Lasted 80 days | Bear | 0.00002779 BTC | −9.6% | −23.8% | −54.9% | −55.0% |
| 16 Aug 2020Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.00002724 BTC | +26.8% | −16.2% | −55.1% | +2.0% |
| 21 Jul 2020Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.00002773 BTC | −17.0% | +9.8% | −34.3% | −1.8% |
| 8 May 2020Lasted 74 days | Bull | 0.00002326 BTC | −8.2% | +3.5% | −5.4% | +19.2% |
| 29 Apr 2020Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.00002208 BTC | −11.6% | +0.5% | +4.3% | +5.3% |
| 9 Apr 2020Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.00002360 BTC | −1.4% | −3.5% | +18.7% | −6.5% |
| 16 Feb 2020Lasted 53 days | Bear | 0.00002654 BTC | +4.6% | −16.6% | −18.3% | −11.1% |
| 4 Feb 2020Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00002642 BTC | +8.4% | −2.1% | −20.4% | +0.4% |
| 7 Jan 2020Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.00002360 BTC | +3.1% | +15.0% | −6.7% | +12.0% |
| 28 Dec 2019Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00002538 BTC | +0.9% | −0.1% | −13.7% | −7.0% |
| 26 Nov 2019Lasted 32 days | Bear | 0.00002838 BTC | −5.1% | −19.3% | −6.4% | −10.6% |
| 13 Nov 2019Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00002897 BTC | −0.6% | −10.8% | −1.2% | −2.0% |
| 26 Oct 2019Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.00002554 BTC | −1.7% | +12.3% | −3.6% | +13.5% |
| 18 Sep 2019Lasted 38 days | Bull | 0.00001941 BTC | −1.8% | +41.9% | +20.4% | +31.6% |
| 5 Sep 2019Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00001637 BTC | +0.5% | +47.9% | +54.2% | +18.6% |
| 24 Aug 2019Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00002003 BTC | −7.8% | −3.9% | +50.6% | −18.3% |
| 1 Aug 2019Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.00002279 BTC | −23.3% | −19.0% | +12.3% | −12.1% |
| 27 Jul 2019Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00002858 BTC | −24.0% | −36.7% | +1.8% | −20.3% |
| 15 Jul 2019Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.00002281 BTC | +4.0% | −26.6% | +7.8% | +25.3% |
| 1 Jul 2019Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.00003135 BTC | −22.7% | −21.9% | −37.1% | −27.3% |
| 3 May 2019Lasted 59 days | Bear | 0.00006550 BTC | −12.9% | −37.3% | −65.2% | −52.1% |
| 17 Apr 2019Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00006427 BTC | +19.0% | −21.4% | −66.4% | +1.9% |
| 3 Apr 2019Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.00005741 BTC | −4.2% | +14.1% | −48.3% | +11.9% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 3 Apr 2019, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
112 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.