Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Canton's 4-hour flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bearish flips the median price in Bitcoin was still higher 7 days later. A bearish flip did not by itself mean the price went down. After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 7 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 5 of 5 | −0.4% | −10.9% to +17.1% (94%) | −8.8% to +12.2% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 1 of 5 | +7.3% | – | too little history | – | |
| 90 | 0 of 5 | not yet | – | too little history | – | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 5 of 6 | +10.6% | −8.0% to +23.5% (94%) | −8.8% to +12.2% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 2 of 6 | −3.1% | −3.1% to +5.5% (50%) | too little history | – | |
| 90 | 0 of 6 | not yet | – | too little history | – | |
| Any day since 27 Aug 2026, for comparison | 7 | 31 days | −0.8% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 8 days | too little history | – | – | – | |
| 90 | – | too little history | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest eleven flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Bitstamp. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (12 hours) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 5 | 0 of 5 |
| After bearish flips | 6 | 0 of 6 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 12 hours. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
There is less than a year of flips here, too little to count flips a year.
On 4-hour candles the line flips often, and nearly every flip is reversed within 30 days, so the 7-, 30- and 90-day columns mostly show where the market drifted, not what the flip did.
Canton, 4-hour flips: 11 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hours so far | Bear | 0.000001587 BTC | not yet | not yet | not yet | −8.3% so far |
| 25 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days | Bull | 0.000001422 BTC | −0.4% | not yet | not yet | +11.6% |
| 23 Sep 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | 0.000001271 BTC | +16.7% | not yet | not yet | +11.9% |
| 21 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bull | 0.000001390 BTC | +17.1% | not yet | not yet | −8.6% |
| 20 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bear | 0.000001296 BTC | +23.5% | not yet | not yet | +7.2% |
| 17 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bull | 0.000001319 BTC | −1.5% | not yet | not yet | −1.7% |
| 16 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bear | 0.000001196 BTC | +10.6% | not yet | not yet | +10.3% |
| 15 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bull | 0.000001267 BTC | +5.9% | not yet | not yet | −5.7% |
| 2 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 12 days 20 hours | Bear | 0.000001460 BTC | −8.0% | −3.1% | not yet | −13.2% |
| 29 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bull | 0.000001517 BTC | −10.9% | +7.3% | not yet | −3.8% |
| 27 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bear | 0.000001462 BTC | −2.7% | +5.5% | not yet | +3.8% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 27 Aug 2026, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
Eleven flips are a small sample. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.