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Market score +85. Market value $2.93tn, +6.0% in 30 days. 24h volume $72.4bn, −59.1% in 30 days. Dominance BTC 58.2%, ETH 11.2%. Stablecoins $311.9bn, +1.4% in 30 days. Fear and greed 65, greed

MarketRenderUpdated 4 Oct 2026, 00:08 UTC00:08 UTC
Rule set flip-line-v1.1, append-only

Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.

A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.

Cap's 4-hour trend in Bitcoin1 Jul 2026 to now
24flips
4 days 4 hourstypical run
13 days 20 hourslongest run
BullishBearishFlip

What happened after Cap's 4-hour flips, measured in Bitcoin

After bearish flips the median price in Bitcoin was still higher 30 days later. A bearish flip did not by itself mean the price went down.

90 days after a bullish flip+144.6%Median of 1 flip; 11 are too recent
90 days after a bearish flip+56.2%Median of 1 flip; 11 are too recent
90 days after any daytoo little history5 days since 1 Jul 2026
What happened after Cap's 4-hour flips, measured in Bitcoin
Which flipsDays laterFlips countedMedian changeRange of the medianOrdinary daysAgainst ordinary days
After bullish flips711 of 12+3.6%−26.9% to +26.2% (93%)−11.0% to +31.3%within the range of ordinary days
307 of 12+140.9%−31.0% to +241.1% (98%)too little history–
901 of 12+144.6%–too little history–
After bearish flips711 of 12+6.5%−18.7% to +26.9% (93%)−11.0% to +31.3%within the range of ordinary days
308 of 12+22.9%+9.0% to +216.5% (93%)too little history–
901 of 12+56.2%–too little history–
Any day since 1 Jul 2026, for comparison788 days+4.9%–––
3065 daystoo little history–––
905 daystoo little history–––

Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.

Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.

Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.

The latest 22 flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.

Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Coinbase. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.

How soon flips were reversed

How soon flips were reversed
Which flipsFlipsReversed within 3 candles (12 hours)
After bullish flips121 of 12
After bearish flips120 of 12

A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 12 hours. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.

There is less than a year of flips here, too little to count flips a year.

On 4-hour candles the line flips often, and nearly every flip is reversed within 30 days, so the 7-, 30- and 90-day columns mostly show where the market drifted, not what the flip did.

Cap, 4-hour flips: 24 flips

Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.

Cap, 4-hour flips: 24 flips
Candle closedFlipped toPrice at the flip7 days later30 days later90 days laterUntil the next flip
2 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours so farBull0.0000009853 BTCnot yetnot yetnot yet−17.4% so far
2 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 16 hoursBear0.0000008235 BTCnot yetnot yetnot yet+19.7%
23 Sep 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 8 days 4 hoursBull0.0000005993 BTC+19.3%not yetnot yet+37.4%
19 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hoursBear0.0000005814 BTC+6.5%not yetnot yet+3.1%
19 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 4 hoursBull0.0000008468 BTC−26.9%not yetnot yet−31.3%
17 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hoursBear0.0000007173 BTC−12.3%not yetnot yet+18.1%
13 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hoursBull0.0000005973 BTC−1.8%not yetnot yet+20.1%
11 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hoursBear0.0000005660 BTC+26.9%not yetnot yet+5.5%
7 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hoursBull0.0000005916 BTC+3.6%not yetnot yet−4.3%
3 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hoursBear0.0000008039 BTC−24.7%+9.0%not yet−26.4%
28 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days 16 hoursBull0.0000008854 BTC−32.0%−31.0%not yet−9.2%
20 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 8 days 12 hoursBear0.0000009789 BTC−8.6%−29.5%not yet−9.6%
6 Aug 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 13 days 20 hoursBull0.0000004931 BTC+76.2%+14.5%not yet+98.5%
1 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hoursBear0.0000004937 BTC+12.7%+77.9%not yet−0.1%
27 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 daysBull0.0000003671 BTC+26.2%+140.9%not yet+34.5%
25 Jul 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hoursBear0.0000003788 BTC+65.0%+135.1%not yet−3.1%
23 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hoursBull0.0000003202 BTC+28.2%+167.4%not yet+18.3%
21 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hoursBear0.0000002882 BTC+31.3%+239.6%not yet+11.1%
16 Jul 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hoursBull0.0000003027 BTC+5.8%+241.1%not yet−4.8%
14 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hoursBear0.0000002745 BTC+17.8%+216.5%not yet+10.2%
13 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 20 hoursBull0.0000003011 BTC−4.4%+187.7%not yet−8.8%
6 Jul 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 7 days 8 hoursBear0.0000003275 BTC−18.7%+20.7%not yet−8.1%
5 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hoursBull0.0000003584 BTC−30.4%+21.2%+144.6%−8.6%
1 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hoursBear0.0000004330 BTC−23.5%+22.9%+56.2%−17.2%

How to read this

Closed candles only

Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.

Compare with any day

The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 1 Jul 2026, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.

A small sample

Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.

24 flips are a small sample. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.