Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Cap's 4-hour flips
After bearish flips the median price was still higher 30 days later. A bearish flip did not by itself mean the price went down.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 12 of 13 | −1.6% | −29.6% to +17.9% (96%) | −8.0% to +25.4% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 7 of 13 | +132.4% | +1.9% to +255.2% (98%) | too little history | – | |
| 90 | 1 of 13 | +227.6% | – | too little history | – | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 12 of 13 | +2.1% | −18.4% to +23.0% (96%) | −8.0% to +25.4% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 8 of 13 | +66.5% | +18.6% to +199.4% (93%) | too little history | – | |
| 90 | 1 of 13 | +153.6% | – | too little history | – | |
| Any day since 2 Jul 2026, for comparison | 7 | 88 days | +9.0% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 65 days | too little history | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 5 days | too little history | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest 24 flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are 4-hour closes on Coinbase. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (12 hours) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 13 | 2 of 13 |
| After bearish flips | 13 | 1 of 13 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 12 hours. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
There is less than a year of flips here, too little to count flips a year.
On 4-hour candles the line flips often, and nearly every flip is reversed within 30 days, so the 7-, 30- and 90-day columns mostly show where the market drifted, not what the flip did.
Cap, 4-hour flips: 13 bullish flips of 26
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours so far | Bull | $0.08407 | not yet | not yet | not yet | −18.0% so far |
| 23 Sep 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 8 days 4 hours | Bull | $0.05065 | +18.0% | not yet | not yet | +37.9% |
| 19 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 4 hours | Bull | $0.06883 | −24.3% | not yet | not yet | −31.0% |
| 15 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | $0.06671 | −31.2% | not yet | not yet | −14.1% |
| 13 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bull | $0.04682 | +1.8% | not yet | not yet | +23.0% |
| 7 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hours | Bull | $0.04696 | +0.2% | not yet | not yet | −7.2% |
| 3 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 4 hours | Bull | $0.07266 | −34.8% | +1.9% | not yet | −14.1% |
| 6 Aug 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 14 days 20 hours | Bull | $0.03179 | +73.3% | +41.5% | not yet | +103.7% |
| 30 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bull | $0.03010 | −7.6% | +132.4% | not yet | +3.2% |
| 26 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bull | $0.02314 | +17.9% | +197.4% | not yet | +3.4% |
| 16 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 9 days 8 hours | Bull | $0.01830 | +15.6% | +255.2% | not yet | +26.3% |
| 13 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | $0.01892 | −1.6% | +190.8% | not yet | −9.4% |
| 5 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bull | $0.02261 | −29.6% | +21.9% | +227.6% | −8.4% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 2 Jul 2026, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
26 flips are a small sample. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.