Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Cardano's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 65 of 65 | −2.4% | −3.4% to 0.0% (92%) | −3.5% to +0.5% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 63 of 65 | −6.3% | −10.1% to −1.7% (92%) | −10.0% to −0.1% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 61 of 65 | −10.8% | −18.3% to −4.6% (93%) | −18.2% to −3.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 65 of 65 | −2.4% | −3.4% to −1.3% (92%) | −3.5% to +0.5% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 64 of 65 | −7.3% | −14.2% to −2.6% (94%) | −10.3% to −0.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 61 of 65 | −14.2% | −18.0% to −7.9% (93%) | −18.2% to −3.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 10 Jan 2018, for comparison | 7 | 3,182 days | −1.6% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 3,159 days | −5.2% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 3,099 days | −11.9% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest eight flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are daily closes of the native ADA/BTC market on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 65 | 1 of 65 |
| After bearish flips | 65 | 4 of 65 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Cardano's daily line has flipped 14.9 times a year since 10 Jan 2018.
Cardano, daily flips: 130 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026Lasted 15 days so far | Bull | 0.000002770 BTC | +11.2% | not yet | not yet | +4.0% so far |
| 16 Sep 2026Lasted 2 days | Bear | 0.000002570 BTC | +10.1% | not yet | not yet | +7.8% |
| 6 Sep 2026Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000002780 BTC | −4.7% | not yet | not yet | −7.6% |
| 28 Aug 2026Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.000002610 BTC | +1.5% | +15.7% | not yet | +6.5% |
| 21 Aug 2026Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000002920 BTC | −10.6% | −3.8% | not yet | −10.6% |
| 17 Aug 2026Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000002700 BTC | +3.7% | −4.8% | not yet | +8.1% |
| 31 Jul 2026Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000002670 BTC | +16.1% | −7.1% | not yet | +1.1% |
| 8 Jul 2026Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.000002690 BTC | −5.2% | +15.2% | not yet | −0.7% |
| 2 Jul 2026Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000002620 BTC | +0.4% | +5.7% | +12.2% | +2.7% |
| 19 May 2026Lasted 44 days | Bear | 0.000003230 BTC | −2.2% | −19.5% | −16.4% | −18.9% |
| 8 May 2026Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000003410 BTC | −2.9% | −23.5% | −8.5% | −5.3% |
| 3 Mar 2026Lasted 66 days | Bear | 0.000003850 BTC | −2.9% | −7.0% | −16.1% | −11.4% |
| 14 Feb 2026Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000004220 BTC | −2.6% | −8.1% | −21.6% | −8.8% |
| 18 Jan 2026Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.000004010 BTC | −2.5% | +3.7% | −18.0% | +5.2% |
| 2 Jan 2026Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.000004380 BTC | −1.4% | −15.3% | −18.3% | −8.4% |
| 12 Dec 2025Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.000004530 BTC | −5.7% | −5.1% | −17.4% | −3.3% |
| 9 Dec 2025Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.000005070 BTC | −13.2% | −14.4% | −26.4% | −10.7% |
| 3 Nov 2025Lasted 36 days | Bear | 0.000005190 BTC | +7.9% | −7.3% | −28.5% | −2.3% |
| 12 Oct 2025Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.000006090 BTC | −1.3% | −11.3% | −29.4% | −14.8% |
| 15 Sep 2025Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.000007480 BTC | −2.1% | −19.3% | −39.8% | −18.6% |
| 12 Aug 2025Lasted 34 days | Bull | 0.000007010 BTC | +7.0% | +10.4% | −20.1% | +6.7% |
| 28 Jul 2025Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.000006710 BTC | −2.1% | +13.9% | −11.3% | +4.5% |
| 10 Jul 2025Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.000005840 BTC | +17.8% | +18.0% | +16.4% | +14.9% |
| 18 May 2025Lasted 53 days | Bear | 0.000007140 BTC | −2.4% | −18.3% | +9.8% | −18.2% |
| 10 May 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.000008020 BTC | −10.2% | −20.3% | −15.5% | −11.0% |
| 10 Mar 2025Lasted 61 days | Bear | 0.000008540 BTC | 0.0% | −10.4% | −25.8% | −6.1% |
| 13 Feb 2025Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.000008390 BTC | −2.6% | +5.6% | −8.0% | +1.8% |
| 21 Jan 2025Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.000009470 BTC | −4.5% | −13.7% | −24.7% | −11.4% |
| 3 Jan 2025Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.00001109 BTC | −11.4% | −25.7% | −29.4% | −14.6% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.00001032 BTC | −1.6% | −3.5% | −13.5% | +7.5% |
| 7 Nov 2024Lasted 32 days | Bull | 0.000005360 BTC | +23.9% | +126.3% | +41.4% | +92.5% |
| 1 Oct 2024Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.000005790 BTC | −4.3% | −16.1% | +60.4% | −7.4% |
| 24 Sep 2024Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000006040 BTC | −4.1% | −15.9% | +61.8% | −4.1% |
| 16 Sep 2024Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.000005670 BTC | +1.2% | −8.1% | +85.5% | +6.5% |
| 8 Sep 2024Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.000006180 BTC | −7.4% | −10.4% | +96.3% | −8.3% |
| 2 Sep 2024Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.000005680 BTC | +5.8% | −0.4% | +108.3% | +8.8% |
| 22 Aug 2024Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000006240 BTC | −3.4% | −9.5% | +35.9% | −9.0% |
| 18 Jul 2024Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.000006610 BTC | −9.2% | −14.2% | −21.2% | −5.6% |
| 10 Jul 2024Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.000006730 BTC | +1.2% | −15.0% | −17.7% | −1.8% |
| 5 Jul 2024Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.000006170 BTC | +16.7% | −4.2% | −7.9% | +9.1% |
| 25 Jun 2024Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000006340 BTC | +6.2% | −5.4% | −9.5% | −2.7% |
| 10 Mar 2024Lasted 107 days | Bear | 0.00001039 BTC | −4.1% | −17.8% | −39.3% | −39.0% |
| 2 Mar 2024Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00001196 BTC | −9.2% | −25.4% | −44.7% | −13.1% |
| 27 Feb 2024Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.00001094 BTC | −0.6% | −16.0% | −38.3% | +9.3% |
| 19 Feb 2024Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00001218 BTC | −6.7% | −22.7% | −42.2% | −10.2% |
| 13 Feb 2024Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00001096 BTC | +8.7% | −4.0% | −36.7% | +11.1% |
| 12 Jan 2024Lasted 32 days | Bull | 0.00001279 BTC | −5.3% | −12.4% | −34.6% | −14.3% |
| 3 Jan 2024Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.00001301 BTC | −6.8% | −8.5% | −31.7% | −1.7% |
| 30 Oct 2023Lasted 65 days | Bull | 0.000008780 BTC | +17.9% | +14.9% | +32.8% | +48.2% |
| 10 Sep 2023Lasted 50 days | Bear | 0.000009640 BTC | −3.4% | −5.6% | +37.4% | −8.9% |
| 18 Aug 2023Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.00001014 BTC | −1.1% | −8.2% | +1.1% | −4.9% |
| 3 Aug 2023Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.00001001 BTC | +0.6% | −1.0% | −13.3% | +1.3% |
| 13 Jul 2023Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.00001133 BTC | −6.4% | −12.4% | −18.6% | −11.7% |
| 6 Jun 2023Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.00001296 BTC | −18.1% | −28.1% | −23.4% | −12.6% |
| 2 Jun 2023Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.00001388 BTC | −19.7% | −31.4% | −29.0% | −6.6% |
| 30 Apr 2023Lasted 33 days | Bear | 0.00001353 BTC | −2.3% | +0.7% | −21.2% | +2.6% |
| 28 Mar 2023Lasted 33 days | Bull | 0.00001350 BTC | +2.4% | +3.1% | −31.3% | +0.2% |
| 24 Feb 2023Lasted 32 days | Bear | 0.00001577 BTC | −2.7% | −19.3% | −14.2% | −14.4% |
| 14 Feb 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00001742 BTC | −7.8% | −25.4% | −22.5% | −9.5% |
| 14 Jan 2023Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.00001683 BTC | −3.9% | −2.0% | −14.5% | +3.5% |
| 4 Jan 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00001589 BTC | +13.3% | +8.5% | −13.0% | +5.9% |
| 28 Nov 2022Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.00001890 BTC | −0.4% | −20.6% | −17.1% | −15.9% |
| 25 Oct 2022Lasted 34 days | Bull | 0.00001992 BTC | −1.7% | −4.4% | −17.9% | −5.1% |
| 12 Sep 2022Lasted 43 days | Bear | 0.00002238 BTC | +3.5% | −11.0% | −19.6% | −11.0% |
| 3 Sep 2022Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00002423 BTC | −2.4% | −10.1% | −22.9% | −7.6% |
| 19 Aug 2022Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.00002160 BTC | −1.2% | +6.7% | −9.9% | +12.2% |
| 23 Jul 2022Lasted 27 days | Bull | 0.00002303 BTC | −3.4% | −6.3% | −20.9% | −6.2% |
| 8 Jul 2022Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.00002159 BTC | −1.8% | +5.4% | −0.5% | +6.7% |
| 14 Jun 2022Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.00002182 BTC | +6.4% | −1.7% | +2.6% | −1.1% |
| 12 Jun 2022Lasted 2 days | Bear | 0.00001845 BTC | +27.7% | +17.0% | +28.2% | +18.3% |
| 31 May 2022Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00001971 BTC | +0.1% | +17.0% | +12.6% | −6.4% |
| 9 May 2022Lasted 22 days | Bear | 0.00002003 BTC | −6.9% | +5.9% | +13.6% | −1.6% |
| 4 May 2022Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00002265 BTC | −21.4% | −16.7% | −4.6% | −11.6% |
| 11 Apr 2022Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.00002327 BTC | −1.3% | −23.5% | −4.7% | −2.7% |
| 21 Mar 2022Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.00002238 BTC | +10.9% | +1.2% | +5.3% | +4.0% |
| 20 Jan 2022Lasted 60 days | Bear | 0.00003097 BTC | −9.4% | −19.7% | −26.9% | −27.7% |
| 16 Jan 2022Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.00003276 BTC | −5.3% | −24.1% | −28.1% | −5.5% |
| 10 Jan 2022Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00002686 BTC | +41.3% | +0.2% | −9.3% | +22.0% |
| 23 Dec 2021Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.00002900 BTC | −0.6% | +5.3% | −11.0% | −7.4% |
| 18 Sep 2021Lasted 96 days | Bear | 0.00004909 BTC | +9.8% | −30.1% | −46.2% | −40.9% |
| 11 Sep 2021Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00005838 BTC | −15.9% | −35.3% | −56.0% | −15.9% |
| 10 Sep 2021Lasted 1 day | Bear | 0.00005316 BTC | −6.6% | −24.7% | −49.0% | +9.8% |
| 10 Aug 2021Lasted 31 days | Bull | 0.00003681 BTC | +17.0% | +47.4% | −14.5% | +44.4% |
| 9 Aug 2021Lasted 1 day | Bear | 0.00003188 BTC | +41.6% | +68.2% | +0.2% | +15.5% |
| 3 Aug 2021Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00003584 BTC | +2.7% | +67.7% | −10.8% | −11.0% |
| 16 Jul 2021Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.00003731 BTC | −3.8% | +23.6% | +1.5% | −3.9% |
| 5 Jul 2021Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00004166 BTC | −4.8% | −16.8% | +12.1% | −10.4% |
| 19 May 2021Lasted 47 days | Bear | 0.00004000 BTC | +13.3% | −1.1% | +7.6% | +4.1% |
| 17 Mar 2021Lasted 63 days | Bull | 0.00002338 BTC | −12.7% | −1.6% | +65.7% | +71.1% |
| 7 Mar 2021Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00002217 BTC | −19.4% | −2.6% | +110.3% | +5.5% |
| 4 Jan 2021Lasted 62 days | Bull | 0.000007040 BTC | +10.4% | +66.8% | +188.5% | +214.9% |
| 17 Dec 2020Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.000007160 BTC | −10.1% | +36.0% | +226.5% | −1.7% |
| 21 Nov 2020Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.000007130 BTC | +30.6% | −5.6% | +132.3% | +0.4% |
| 20 Oct 2020Lasted 32 days | Bear | 0.000008590 BTC | −12.5% | −30.7% | +18.0% | −17.0% |
| 25 Sep 2020Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.000009070 BTC | −3.1% | −10.0% | −29.0% | −5.3% |
| 27 Jul 2020Lasted 60 days | Bear | 0.00001257 BTC | −2.6% | −20.6% | −35.1% | −27.8% |
| 20 May 2020Lasted 68 days | Bull | 0.000005980 BTC | 0.0% | +43.5% | +91.8% | +110.2% |
| 30 Apr 2020Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.000005510 BTC | −6.9% | +43.9% | +128.5% | +8.5% |
| 18 Apr 2020Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.000005050 BTC | +11.1% | +10.5% | +164.4% | +9.1% |
| 19 Feb 2020Lasted 59 days | Bear | 0.000005970 BTC | −6.4% | −20.6% | −2.7% | −15.4% |
| 15 Jan 2020Lasted 35 days | Bull | 0.000004850 BTC | +8.7% | +41.0% | −0.6% | +23.1% |
| 16 Dec 2019Lasted 30 days | Bear | 0.000004950 BTC | −8.9% | −2.0% | +1.4% | −2.0% |
| 11 Nov 2019Lasted 35 days | Bull | 0.000004940 BTC | +6.7% | +2.8% | +23.5% | +0.2% |
| 24 Sep 2019Lasted 48 days | Bear | 0.000004380 BTC | +5.3% | +14.8% | +3.0% | +12.8% |
| 17 Sep 2019Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000004800 BTC | −8.7% | +1.5% | +3.1% | −8.7% |
| 4 Sep 2019Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.000004300 BTC | +2.8% | +12.3% | +20.5% | +11.6% |
| 18 Aug 2019Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000004910 BTC | −0.4% | −2.2% | +5.3% | −12.4% |
| 2 Aug 2019Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.000005450 BTC | −26.2% | −16.5% | −17.1% | −9.9% |
| 26 Jul 2019Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000006370 BTC | −14.4% | −23.2% | −21.0% | −14.4% |
| 17 Jun 2019Lasted 39 days | Bear | 0.00001002 BTC | −11.8% | −43.2% | −54.9% | −36.4% |
| 15 May 2019Lasted 33 days | Bull | 0.00001149 BTC | −11.6% | −9.4% | −58.0% | −12.8% |
| 18 Apr 2019Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.00001546 BTC | −13.8% | −29.8% | −63.2% | −25.7% |
| 9 Mar 2019Lasted 40 days | Bull | 0.00001189 BTC | +7.6% | +38.1% | −10.4% | +30.0% |
| 24 Feb 2019Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00001113 BTC | −0.7% | +40.4% | −10.2% | +6.8% |
| 10 Feb 2019Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.00001165 BTC | −2.7% | +4.3% | −10.5% | −4.5% |
| 28 Jan 2019Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00001123 BTC | −2.4% | +0.3% | +15.4% | +3.7% |
| 20 Dec 2018Lasted 39 days | Bull | 0.000009560 BTC | +5.9% | +28.8% | +38.6% | +17.5% |
| 14 Nov 2018Lasted 36 days | Bear | 0.00001124 BTC | −7.7% | −21.9% | +2.2% | −14.9% |
| 4 Nov 2018Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00001192 BTC | +0.2% | −20.4% | −6.0% | −5.7% |
| 11 Oct 2018Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.00001133 BTC | +2.2% | +3.6% | +14.7% | +5.2% |
| 20 Sep 2018Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.00001245 BTC | +3.6% | −5.4% | −26.2% | −9.0% |
| 23 Jul 2018Lasted 59 days | Bear | 0.00002129 BTC | −11.9% | −33.9% | −45.0% | −41.5% |
| 16 Jul 2018Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00002331 BTC | −8.7% | −35.9% | −51.6% | −8.7% |
| 10 Jul 2018Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00002033 BTC | +15.2% | −8.0% | −35.9% | +14.7% |
| 1 Jul 2018Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00002234 BTC | −3.4% | −18.0% | −42.7% | −9.0% |
| 10 Jun 2018Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.00002562 BTC | −2.9% | −20.6% | −51.0% | −12.8% |
| 31 May 2018Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00002982 BTC | −8.4% | −27.6% | −49.7% | −14.1% |
| 10 May 2018Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.00003237 BTC | −8.3% | −17.2% | −44.5% | −7.9% |
| 20 Mar 2018Lasted 51 days | Bull | 0.00002260 BTC | −13.7% | +44.1% | +8.1% | +43.2% |
| 10 Jan 2018Lasted 69 days | Bear | 0.00005300 BTC | +7.5% | −18.0% | −57.1% | −57.4% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 10 Jan 2018, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
130 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.