Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Celestia's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 23 of 23 | −4.6% | −10.0% to +1.8% (91%) | −8.0% to +2.1% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 21 of 23 | −20.9% | −23.2% to +1.0% (92%) | −20.6% to +0.2% | outside the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 20 of 23 | −27.6% | −48.8% to −16.8% (96%) | −45.5% to −19.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 23 of 23 | −5.5% | −7.4% to −1.3% (91%) | −8.0% to +2.1% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 22 of 23 | −11.1% | −26.1% to +7.3% (95%) | −21.1% to −1.1% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 20 of 23 | −38.6% | −43.9% to −6.2% (96%) | −45.5% to −19.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 21 Nov 2023, for comparison | 7 | 1,041 days | −3.4% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 1,018 days | −11.1% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 958 days | −35.5% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest six flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 23 | 0 of 23 |
| After bearish flips | 23 | 0 of 23 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Celestia's daily line has flipped 16.0 times a year since 21 Nov 2023.
Celestia, daily flips: 46 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026Lasted 15 days so far | Bull | 0.000005033 BTC | +16.9% | not yet | not yet | +10.9% so far |
| 11 Sep 2026Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.000004580 BTC | +9.9% | not yet | not yet | +9.9% |
| 5 Sep 2026Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000004754 BTC | −4.6% | not yet | not yet | −3.7% |
| 25 Aug 2026Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.000004464 BTC | +2.7% | +29.7% | not yet | +6.5% |
| 21 Aug 2026Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.000005038 BTC | −12.9% | +2.4% | not yet | −11.4% |
| 18 Jul 2026Lasted 34 days | Bear | 0.000005583 BTC | −5.5% | −15.9% | not yet | −9.8% |
| 16 Jun 2026Lasted 32 days | Bull | 0.000006168 BTC | −2.7% | +1.0% | −26.1% | −9.5% |
| 5 Jun 2026Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.000004940 BTC | +3.1% | +26.6% | −8.6% | +24.9% |
| 23 May 2026Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.000005668 BTC | −2.0% | +6.1% | −11.1% | −12.8% |
| 16 May 2026Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.000005069 BTC | +11.8% | +10.0% | −3.5% | +11.8% |
| 8 May 2026Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.000005572 BTC | −4.6% | −9.9% | −6.0% | −9.0% |
| 22 Apr 2026Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.000004680 BTC | −1.9% | +17.7% | +17.7% | +19.0% |
| 15 Apr 2026Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000004426 BTC | +5.7% | +20.0% | +41.6% | +5.7% |
| 21 Mar 2026Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.000004655 BTC | −4.7% | +7.3% | +28.5% | −4.9% |
| 14 Feb 2026Lasted 35 days | Bull | 0.000005154 BTC | −5.0% | −0.5% | +3.1% | −9.7% |
| 19 Jan 2026Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.000005362 BTC | −6.2% | −8.4% | −6.6% | −3.9% |
| 2 Jan 2026Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000005889 BTC | +3.7% | −20.9% | −27.6% | −8.9% |
| 21 Nov 2025Lasted 42 days | Bear | 0.000007706 BTC | −10.6% | −32.6% | −38.0% | −23.6% |
| 7 Nov 2025Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.00001026 BTC | −12.1% | −39.9% | −52.1% | −24.9% |
| 22 Sep 2025Lasted 46 days | Bear | 0.00001332 BTC | −7.4% | −32.8% | −61.0% | −23.0% |
| 9 Sep 2025Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00001621 BTC | −10.0% | −27.1% | −59.6% | −17.8% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 48 days | Bear | 0.00001623 BTC | −6.6% | −0.9% | −43.0% | −0.2% |
| 10 Jul 2025Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00001589 BTC | +2.5% | −1.6% | −24.0% | +2.2% |
| 15 May 2025Lasted 56 days | Bear | 0.00002656 BTC | −4.4% | −36.0% | −38.8% | −40.2% |
| 9 May 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00002970 BTC | −12.9% | −36.0% | −50.4% | −10.6% |
| 1 Apr 2025Lasted 38 days | Bear | 0.00003694 BTC | −17.3% | −26.1% | −64.9% | −19.6% |
| 13 Mar 2025Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.00004475 BTC | −11.1% | −30.6% | −56.7% | −17.4% |
| 5 Mar 2025Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.00003727 BTC | +17.9% | −12.7% | −42.8% | +20.1% |
| 20 Feb 2025Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00003726 BTC | +15.3% | +8.2% | −35.3% | 0.0% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 73 days | Bear | 0.00006849 BTC | −9.4% | −30.7% | −45.2% | −45.6% |
| 23 Nov 2024Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00007295 BTC | +19.0% | −23.0% | −48.8% | −6.1% |
| 25 Oct 2024Lasted 29 days | Bear | 0.00007945 BTC | −17.6% | +2.3% | −43.9% | −8.2% |
| 13 Oct 2024Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00009936 BTC | −11.0% | −37.4% | −47.6% | −20.0% |
| 1 Oct 2024Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.00008373 BTC | −1.3% | −17.3% | −38.6% | +18.7% |
| 15 Sep 2024Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00008117 BTC | +3.7% | +11.4% | −16.8% | +3.1% |
| 29 Aug 2024Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.00007760 BTC | −7.2% | +17.2% | +8.4% | +4.6% |
| 10 Aug 2024Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.00009645 BTC | −10.7% | −22.6% | −26.7% | −19.5% |
| 24 Jul 2024Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.00009153 BTC | −10.9% | +1.2% | −6.2% | +5.4% |
| 8 Jul 2024Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.0001068 BTC | −0.9% | −23.2% | −20.8% | −14.3% |
| 7 Jun 2024Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.0001394 BTC | −17.0% | −34.7% | −48.4% | −23.4% |
| 28 May 2024Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0001706 BTC | −10.9% | −40.0% | −49.5% | −18.3% |
| 14 May 2024Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.0001324 BTC | +4.7% | −11.1% | −25.3% | +28.9% |
| 16 Apr 2024Lasted 28 days | Bull | 0.0001776 BTC | +1.8% | −22.5% | −40.4% | −25.5% |
| 14 Feb 2024Lasted 62 days | Bear | 0.0003708 BTC | −9.7% | −40.4% | −64.3% | −52.1% |
| 2 Dec 2023Lasted 74 days | Bull | 0.0002244 BTC | −5.0% | +41.1% | +21.3% | +65.2% |
| 21 Nov 2023Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.0001404 BTC | +17.4% | +109.0% | +157.6% | +59.8% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 21 Nov 2023, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
46 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.