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MarketRenderUpdated 4 Oct 2026, 00:08 UTC00:08 UTC
Rule set flip-line-v1.0, append-only

Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.

A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.

Celestia's 4-hour trend9 Nov 2023 to now
268flips
3 days 4 hourstypical run
15 days 12 hourslongest run
BullishBearish

What happened after Celestia's 4-hour flips

After bullish flips the median price was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.

90 days after a bullish flip−30.5%Median of 125 flips; 9 are too recent
90 days after a bearish flip−30.6%Median of 125 flips; 9 are too recent
90 days after any day−30.5%970 days since 9 Nov 2023
What happened after Celestia's 4-hour flips
Which flipsDays laterFlips countedMedian changeRange of the medianOrdinary daysAgainst ordinary days
After bullish flips7133 of 134−0.6%−2.3% to +1.3% (92%)−5.3% to +0.4%within the range of ordinary days
30131 of 134−9.6%−13.8% to −4.9% (92%)−13.5% to −4.3%within the range of ordinary days
90125 of 134−30.5%−36.3% to −22.6% (93%)−37.4% to −21.3%within the range of ordinary days
After bearish flips7133 of 134−2.1%−4.5% to +0.5% (92%)−5.3% to +0.4%within the range of ordinary days
30131 of 134−10.7%−12.8% to −3.4% (92%)−13.5% to −4.3%within the range of ordinary days
90125 of 134−30.6%−38.8% to −21.4% (93%)−37.4% to −21.3%within the range of ordinary days
Any day since 9 Nov 2023, for comparison71,053 days−2.5%–––
301,030 days−8.8%–––
90970 days−30.5%–––

Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.

Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.

Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.

The latest 18 flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.

Prices are 4-hour closes on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.

How soon flips were reversed

How soon flips were reversed
Which flipsFlipsReversed within 3 candles (12 hours)
After bullish flips1347 of 134
After bearish flips1341 of 134

A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 12 hours. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.

Celestia's 4-hour line has flipped 92.4 times a year since 9 Nov 2023, 20:00 UTC.

On 4-hour candles the line flips often, and nearly every flip is reversed within 30 days, so the 7-, 30- and 90-day columns mostly show where the market drifted, not what the flip did.

Celestia, 4-hour flips: 134 bullish flips of 268

Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.

Celestia, 4-hour flips: 134 bullish flips of 268
Candle closedFlipped toPrice at the flip7 days later30 days later90 days laterUntil the next flip
2 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours so farBull$0.4688not yetnot yetnot yet+0.9% so far
26 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hoursBull$0.5102−12.3%not yetnot yet−9.6%
17 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 6 days 12 hoursBull$0.3479+32.5%not yetnot yet+33.7%
1 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 7 days 12 hoursBull$0.3414+25.2%+29.5%not yet+19.9%
19 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 daysBull$0.3119+12.4%+13.2%not yet+20.4%
16 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hoursBull$0.3110+21.3%+14.6%not yet−5.2%
30 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 6 days 16 hoursBull$0.3311+1.4%+3.2%not yet−1.3%
27 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 16 hoursBull$0.3506−6.0%0.0%not yet−4.1%
9 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hoursBull$0.4049+2.9%−19.4%not yet−3.7%
3 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 daysBull$0.3971+3.5%−19.3%+11.4%−4.5%
29 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 dayBull$0.3893+2.3%−15.5%+26.6%−6.1%
22 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 dayBull$0.3963−5.3%−7.5%+6.3%−5.4%
11 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 7 days 8 hoursBull$0.3260+20.3%+22.4%+25.7%+13.7%
23 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hoursBull$0.4442−7.5%−18.1%−22.5%−1.5%
20 May 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hoursBull$0.4075+14.9%−3.5%−25.6%+2.1%
5 May 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 8 days 20 hoursBull$0.3683+22.7%0.0%−10.5%+23.1%
28 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 dayBull$0.3693−3.0%+18.4%−5.1%−4.6%
14 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 5 daysBull$0.3159+19.9%+43.5%+26.2%+24.2%
10 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hoursBull$0.3099+32.7%+42.2%+29.0%−4.4%
8 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hoursBull$0.3089−0.8%+25.4%+24.0%−5.1%
6 Apr 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hoursBull$0.2933−0.6%+23.0%+34.3%−3.0%
30 Mar 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hoursBull$0.3032−5.1%+20.2%+23.2%−5.3%
23 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hoursBull$0.3257−10.7%+15.8%+14.2%−2.5%
10 Mar 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 8 days 4 hoursBull$0.3316+15.8%−10.0%−4.1%+8.7%
1 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 6 days 8 hoursBull$0.3266−2.3%−10.0%+25.8%−0.4%
25 Feb 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hoursBull$0.3099+6.6%+1.7%+52.8%+9.1%
20 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hoursBull$0.3340+1.2%−4.0%+22.8%−2.8%
12 Feb 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hoursBull$0.3258+0.2%+6.9%+41.6%+3.3%
6 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hoursBull$0.3416−5.7%−6.6%+13.6%−10.8%
27 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hoursBull$0.4495−16.1%−21.8%−20.7%−3.3%
17 Jan 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hoursBull$0.5944−23.7%−42.9%−30.8%−10.7%
13 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 daysBull$0.5910−16.0%−48.0%−50.7%−4.1%
1 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days 12 hoursBull$0.4874+15.9%−16.5%−39.3%+14.3%
25 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 daysBull$0.4593−0.7%−1.2%−27.7%−0.8%
19 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 daysBull$0.4865−9.9%+18.7%−28.2%−8.4%
9 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hoursBull$0.5940−15.2%−4.9%−47.5%−2.9%
2 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hoursBull$0.6440−7.8%−29.2%−50.5%−11.0%
30 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 16 hoursBull$0.6630−12.4%−31.4%−51.8%−13.6%
27 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 12 hoursBull$0.6620−1.8%−31.1%−54.7%−6.9%
7 Nov 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 daysBull$0.8590+3.8%−32.4%−57.3%+10.4%
1 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hoursBull$0.9660+9.7%−34.1%−57.5%−8.0%
24 Oct 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hoursBull$1.02−10.7%−39.2%−53.8%+0.8%
21 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 8 hoursBull$1.08−4.3%−28.6%−51.0%−7.4%
13 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 daysBull$1.10−7.8%−13.8%−50.5%−5.9%
1 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 6 days 4 hoursBull$1.43+1.3%−36.3%−68.2%+1.5%
18 Sep 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hoursBull$1.79−18.9%−43.7%−71.3%−3.2%
13 Sep 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hoursBull$1.86−8.5%−42.8%−68.3%−3.8%
5 Sep 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hoursBull$1.62+11.3%−4.3%−59.9%+7.3%
3 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 dayBull$1.64+10.0%−8.6%−65.6%−5.2%
29 Aug 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 16 hoursBull$1.75−11.0%−19.3%−63.8%−7.0%
22 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hoursBull$1.76−0.5%−1.8%−56.0%−1.9%
17 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 20 hoursBull$1.870.0%−9.2%−54.3%−6.9%
12 Aug 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hoursBull$1.86−6.3%−5.3%−45.1%−2.7%
7 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hoursBull$1.73+15.7%−6.6%−54.8%+1.2%
5 Aug 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hoursBull$1.72−0.1%−4.8%−43.8%−7.3%
27 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hoursBull$2.00−20.1%−19.4%−48.3%−3.6%
16 Jul 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 7 days 16 hoursBull$1.98+11.4%−11.8%−40.2%+2.7%
9 Jul 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hoursBull$1.66+19.5%+4.4%−6.9%+9.7%
7 Jul 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hoursBull$1.62+16.7%+1.1%−4.3%−3.7%
2 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 daysBull$1.46+9.5%+15.3%−3.3%+4.0%
30 Jun 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 12 hoursBull$1.53+5.5%+21.6%−8.1%−8.1%
23 Jun 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hoursBull$1.49+3.2%+48.3%+15.9%+3.4%
10 Jun 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hoursBull$2.13−19.2%−20.5%−22.7%−2.7%
26 May 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hoursBull$2.66−16.5%−36.6%−29.8%−5.8%
18 May 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hoursBull$2.76−8.2%−37.8%−35.7%−1.8%
8 May 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 daysBull$2.50+22.3%−22.0%−34.5%+19.0%
20 Apr 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 10 daysBull$2.48+18.8%+6.2%−21.0%+10.3%
8 Apr 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days 16 hoursBull$2.52−1.6%−3.3%−35.8%−2.5%
20 Mar 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 8 days 20 hoursBull$3.42+4.8%−30.3%−51.6%−0.9%
11 Mar 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 5 daysBull$3.19+6.3%−19.8%−37.0%+6.9%
28 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hoursBull$4.07−22.1%−21.1%−35.8%−6.0%
25 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hoursBull$3.40+0.5%+5.3%−24.8%+1.0%
17 Feb 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 7 days 4 hoursBull$3.19+16.1%+1.1%−19.3%+7.3%
14 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 daysBull$3.27+12.0%+10.6%−6.6%−7.8%
9 Feb 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hoursBull$3.12−1.7%−10.2%−1.9%+3.0%
4 Feb 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hoursBull$3.50−7.6%−3.5%−31.7%−19.7%
30 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hoursBull$4.27−29.1%−4.3%−35.8%−5.9%
19 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 8 hoursBull$5.15−11.8%−39.2%−53.8%−13.2%
15 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hoursBull$5.13−4.7%−40.7%−51.6%−3.0%
12 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hoursBull$4.93−1.5%−34.4%−48.7%−11.1%
2 Jan 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hoursBull$4.94−8.6%−12.1%−36.3%+4.2%
21 Dec 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hoursBull$5.56−14.6%−16.3%−39.7%−11.7%
12 Dec 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hoursBull$7.55−23.9%−36.0%−57.5%−10.2%
4 Dec 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hoursBull$8.10−18.1%−37.4%−57.8%−1.6%
22 Nov 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 10 days 4 hoursBull$5.42+52.0%−8.8%−42.0%+42.4%
17 Nov 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hoursBull$5.23+36.2%+25.8%−39.2%−6.3%
6 Nov 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 6 days 8 hoursBull$4.66+17.5%+77.0%−24.9%+11.5%
30 Oct 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 16 hoursBull$5.28−19.9%+56.0%−23.2%−12.4%
24 Oct 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hoursBull$6.06−21.4%−5.8%−19.4%−6.6%
18 Oct 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hoursBull$6.25−1.8%−16.3%−16.1%−10.0%
11 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hoursBull$5.28+12.8%+4.7%−14.5%+9.4%
4 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 daysBull$5.26−4.5%−10.9%−7.5%−1.7%
23 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hoursBull$6.15−2.3%−5.9%−19.7%−5.2%
17 Sep 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days 20 hoursBull$4.93+34.8%+19.1%+39.6%+13.1%
12 Sep 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 daysBull$4.23+27.8%+27.2%+56.8%+9.6%
9 Sep 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hoursBull$4.14+15.9%+24.0%+104.4%−3.4%
22 Aug 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hoursBull$5.24−8.8%+14.7%−1.4%+8.6%
12 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hoursBull$5.71−12.5%−25.9%−3.3%−2.0%
5 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 daysBull$5.10+0.4%−20.6%−8.3%+6.4%
2 Aug 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hoursBull$5.58+1.3%−19.7%−14.7%−11.2%
20 Jul 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hoursBull$6.70−10.5%−25.4%−11.0%+2.0%
16 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hoursBull$6.85+5.6%−17.0%−8.8%−12.1%
6 Jul 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hoursBull$5.29+20.5%−10.7%−10.0%+21.8%
24 Jun 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hoursBull$6.37−2.7%+0.6%−5.6%+1.9%
17 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 12 hoursBull$8.21−25.8%−19.4%−43.3%−9.7%
7 Jun 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 hoursBull$10.94−28.2%−48.8%−62.0%−11.6%
2 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 daysBull$11.35−20.1%−48.8%−60.2%−5.2%
28 May 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hoursBull$10.16+5.9%−36.7%−43.9%+2.9%
20 May 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 daysBull$9.28+0.4%−30.9%−44.8%−3.0%
15 May 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hoursBull$8.69+11.9%−9.6%−32.5%+1.5%
2 May 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hoursBull$10.29−8.7%+2.3%−47.3%−4.9%
19 Apr 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days 20 hoursBull$11.19−4.6%−15.0%−43.9%−3.7%
14 Apr 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hoursBull$10.04+18.9%−11.0%−36.6%−5.8%
8 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hoursBull$12.74−17.0%−25.7%−56.1%−8.7%
29 Mar 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hoursBull$15.31−19.6%−32.8%−58.0%−10.5%
25 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hoursBull$14.33−0.1%−16.2%−55.8%−5.4%
19 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hoursBull$14.49−2.8%−31.5%−43.3%−7.9%
12 Mar 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hoursBull$17.95−28.1%−36.3%−49.5%−10.9%
9 Mar 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hoursBull$17.24−11.0%−29.1%−39.5%−7.9%
5 Mar 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 12 hoursBull$16.85−2.0%−29.1%−30.1%−10.1%
29 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hoursBull$17.65−8.0%−13.7%−33.9%−9.5%
25 Feb 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 daysBull$17.46−4.1%−19.4%−49.1%−5.0%
17 Feb 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hoursBull$19.18−14.7%−26.0%−53.2%−7.5%
5 Feb 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 6 days 20 hoursBull$18.14+6.8%−14.2%−44.7%+5.4%
2 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hoursBull$17.37+16.0%−3.6%−44.1%−1.7%
24 Jan 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 7 days 12 hoursBull$16.46+8.5%+3.0%−30.5%+3.2%
9 Jan 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 9 days 8 hoursBull$15.79+20.4%+19.2%−22.6%+10.6%
4 Jan 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 daysBull$12.89+26.4%+37.0%−6.5%+0.8%
1 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hoursBull$13.43+6.6%+33.0%+7.6%−4.8%
19 Dec 2023, 04:00 UTCLasted 7 days 16 hoursBull$13.23+3.8%+37.1%+7.3%−5.6%
6 Dec 2023, 00:00 UTCLasted 12 days 8 hoursBull$10.15+19.0%+54.1%+54.2%+13.2%
28 Nov 2023, 00:00 UTCLasted 6 days 16 hoursBull$5.88+52.1%+115.3%+184.8%+39.8%
14 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days 8 hoursBull$6.17−3.3%+96.6%+214.0%−3.3%
10 Nov 2023, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hoursBull$2.83+103.4%+229.5%+565.4%+54.5%

How to read this

Closed candles only

Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.

Compare with any day

The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 9 Nov 2023, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.

A small sample

Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.

268 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.