Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Celo's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 47 of 47 | −2.6% | −6.4% to +2.4% (92%) | −4.7% to +0.9% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 47 of 47 | −8.3% | −12.0% to −1.8% (92%) | −12.0% to −1.1% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 46 of 47 | −20.5% | −25.7% to −14.0% (95%) | −26.3% to −12.1% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 47 of 47 | −1.4% | −3.4% to +1.3% (92%) | −4.7% to +0.9% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 47 of 47 | −7.4% | −9.4% to +0.3% (92%) | −12.0% to −1.1% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 46 of 47 | −21.3% | −26.3% to −13.5% (95%) | −26.3% to −12.1% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 9 Mar 2021, for comparison | 7 | 2,027 days | −1.9% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 2,004 days | −6.4% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,944 days | −18.3% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest two flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 47 | 3 of 47 |
| After bearish flips | 47 | 3 of 47 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Celo's daily line has flipped 16.9 times a year since 9 Mar 2021.
Celo, daily flips: 94 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026Lasted 41 days so far | Bull | 0.0000009587 BTC | −1.6% | +15.3% | not yet | +24.4% so far |
| 27 Jul 2026Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.0000009935 BTC | −2.8% | −0.9% | not yet | −3.5% |
| 19 Jun 2026Lasted 38 days | Bull | 0.000001051 BTC | −5.9% | +2.4% | −1.1% | −5.5% |
| 16 May 2026Lasted 34 days | Bear | 0.000001072 BTC | +0.6% | −8.5% | −10.9% | −1.9% |
| 24 Apr 2026Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.000001224 BTC | −9.1% | −16.2% | −11.9% | −12.4% |
| 12 Apr 2026Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.000001107 BTC | −1.7% | +7.1% | −3.0% | +10.5% |
| 17 Mar 2026Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.000001128 BTC | +3.2% | +2.0% | −13.1% | −1.9% |
| 19 Feb 2026Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.000001152 BTC | −0.5% | +2.5% | −9.5% | −2.1% |
| 14 Feb 2026Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.000001285 BTC | −10.8% | −16.1% | −12.8% | −10.3% |
| 10 Oct 2025Lasted 127 days | Bear | 0.000002254 BTC | +6.7% | +3.6% | −39.8% | −43.0% |
| 2 Oct 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.000002460 BTC | +19.8% | −8.2% | −48.5% | −8.4% |
| 16 Sep 2025Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.000002618 BTC | −9.5% | −8.3% | −41.8% | −6.1% |
| 13 Sep 2025Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.000002908 BTC | −10.4% | −1.0% | −41.8% | −10.0% |
| 2 Sep 2025Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.000002716 BTC | +1.2% | −9.4% | −33.2% | +7.1% |
| 9 Aug 2025Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.000003115 BTC | −6.4% | −14.1% | −22.8% | −12.8% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.000002973 BTC | −5.8% | +0.3% | −26.3% | +4.8% |
| 7 Jul 2025Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.000002652 BTC | +3.8% | +2.6% | +23.8% | +12.1% |
| 16 May 2025Lasted 52 days | Bear | 0.000003775 BTC | −7.0% | −26.8% | −24.3% | −29.8% |
| 9 May 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000003762 BTC | +0.3% | −20.8% | −25.7% | +0.3% |
| 6 May 2025Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.000003357 BTC | +29.7% | −12.1% | −17.2% | +12.1% |
| 26 Apr 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000003754 BTC | −4.2% | −9.7% | −19.6% | −10.6% |
| 29 Mar 2025Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.000004075 BTC | −10.2% | −11.1% | −40.8% | −7.9% |
| 22 Mar 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000004433 BTC | −8.1% | −20.5% | −39.8% | −8.1% |
| 9 Mar 2025Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.000004144 BTC | −2.1% | −17.1% | −29.1% | +7.0% |
| 26 Feb 2025Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000004624 BTC | −8.6% | −8.3% | −25.5% | −10.4% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 79 days | Bear | 0.000008615 BTC | −11.3% | −20.7% | −51.9% | −46.3% |
| 23 Nov 2024Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.000008190 BTC | +16.9% | −11.0% | −45.7% | +5.2% |
| 23 Oct 2024Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.00001078 BTC | −16.4% | −30.2% | −47.6% | −24.0% |
| 19 Sep 2024Lasted 34 days | Bull | 0.000008142 BTC | +19.7% | +54.8% | −14.0% | +32.4% |
| 1 Sep 2024Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.000007457 BTC | +1.5% | +50.3% | +28.4% | +9.2% |
| 22 Aug 2024Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000008313 BTC | −6.8% | −0.8% | −16.6% | −10.3% |
| 4 Jul 2024Lasted 49 days | Bear | 0.000008515 BTC | +6.1% | −9.2% | +30.3% | −2.4% |
| 27 Jun 2024Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00001012 BTC | −15.9% | −15.5% | +3.0% | −15.9% |
| 18 Mar 2024Lasted 101 days | Bear | 0.00001699 BTC | +1.9% | −25.4% | −41.2% | −40.4% |
| 11 Mar 2024Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00002448 BTC | −30.6% | −38.0% | −57.1% | −30.6% |
| 5 Mar 2024Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00001561 BTC | +37.2% | +3.1% | −24.7% | +56.8% |
| 1 Mar 2024Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.00001923 BTC | −11.6% | −9.1% | −36.9% | −18.8% |
| 28 Feb 2024Lasted 2 days | Bear | 0.00001511 BTC | +19.0% | +18.1% | −15.5% | +27.3% |
| 22 Feb 2024Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00001570 BTC | +11.2% | +7.5% | −19.2% | −3.7% |
| 1 Feb 2024Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.00001525 BTC | +4.0% | +29.4% | −13.3% | +2.9% |
| 13 Jan 2024Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.00001902 BTC | −13.1% | −21.6% | −32.2% | −19.8% |
| 4 Jan 2024Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.00001715 BTC | −5.9% | −9.6% | −5.7% | +10.9% |
| 17 Dec 2023Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.00001564 BTC | +4.9% | +11.8% | +16.0% | +9.6% |
| 9 Nov 2023Lasted 38 days | Bear | 0.00001474 BTC | +1.3% | −5.6% | +10.1% | +6.1% |
| 30 Oct 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00001474 BTC | +7.9% | −3.9% | +5.8% | 0.0% |
| 3 Oct 2023Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.00001590 BTC | −3.8% | +1.0% | +13.9% | −7.3% |
| 16 Sep 2023Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.00001698 BTC | +1.3% | −12.4% | −20.7% | −6.4% |
| 22 Jul 2023Lasted 56 days | Bear | 0.00001645 BTC | +4.2% | −1.8% | −13.5% | +3.2% |
| 17 Jul 2023Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00001951 BTC | −16.6% | −19.4% | −20.5% | −15.7% |
| 11 Jul 2023Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00001607 BTC | +8.4% | +7.8% | −5.3% | +21.4% |
| 2 Jul 2023Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00001774 BTC | −6.9% | −5.1% | −5.5% | −9.4% |
| 28 Jun 2023Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.00001433 BTC | +19.4% | +16.6% | +19.8% | +23.8% |
| 25 Jun 2023Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.00001654 BTC | +7.2% | −2.2% | +3.9% | −13.4% |
| 5 Jun 2023Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.00001866 BTC | −13.7% | −8.3% | −13.3% | −11.3% |
| 2 Jun 2023Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.00001997 BTC | −8.8% | −11.2% | −15.4% | −6.6% |
| 24 May 2023Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.00001899 BTC | −2.5% | −19.7% | −13.9% | +5.2% |
| 16 May 2023Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00002057 BTC | −6.2% | −24.2% | −17.1% | −7.7% |
| 26 Apr 2023Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.00002097 BTC | −3.4% | −8.1% | −22.8% | −1.9% |
| 29 Mar 2023Lasted 28 days | Bull | 0.00002550 BTC | −2.6% | −18.5% | −40.7% | −17.8% |
| 3 Mar 2023Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.00003100 BTC | −8.1% | −26.9% | −36.6% | −17.7% |
| 26 Jan 2023Lasted 36 days | Bull | 0.00003451 BTC | −7.8% | −1.8% | −39.2% | −10.2% |
| 21 Jan 2023Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.00003002 BTC | +12.3% | +21.9% | −26.3% | +14.9% |
| 9 Jan 2023Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00003149 BTC | +8.5% | +15.9% | −21.6% | −4.7% |
| 12 Dec 2022Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.00003266 BTC | −7.0% | −2.6% | −20.1% | −3.6% |
| 22 Nov 2022Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.00003168 BTC | +18.5% | −7.3% | +15.5% | +3.1% |
| 2 Oct 2022Lasted 51 days | Bear | 0.00003967 BTC | +0.6% | −10.9% | −27.8% | −20.2% |
| 23 Sep 2022Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00004272 BTC | −4.1% | −13.4% | −31.3% | −7.1% |
| 17 Aug 2022Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.00004267 BTC | −1.4% | −5.4% | −39.4% | +0.1% |
| 30 Jul 2022Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.00004441 BTC | +5.1% | −8.3% | −22.0% | −3.9% |
| 20 Jul 2022Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00004095 BTC | −1.8% | +1.7% | −6.0% | +8.4% |
| 13 Jun 2022Lasted 37 days | Bull | 0.00004185 BTC | +6.4% | −0.8% | −3.2% | −2.1% |
| 8 Apr 2022Lasted 66 days | Bear | 0.00008265 BTC | −6.1% | −18.2% | −46.2% | −49.4% |
| 18 Mar 2022Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.00007393 BTC | −5.9% | +2.9% | −44.4% | +11.8% |
| 15 Mar 2022Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.00006118 BTC | +12.8% | +27.8% | −31.6% | +20.8% |
| 4 Mar 2022Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00006805 BTC | −2.1% | +20.7% | −34.4% | −10.1% |
| 18 Jan 2022Lasted 45 days | Bear | 0.0001045 BTC | −20.1% | −32.9% | −27.1% | −34.9% |
| 18 Dec 2021Lasted 31 days | Bull | 0.00008577 BTC | +13.2% | +26.0% | −13.8% | +21.8% |
| 28 Nov 2021Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.00008527 BTC | −11.2% | +13.2% | −27.5% | +0.6% |
| 21 Nov 2021Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00009873 BTC | −13.6% | −12.0% | −31.3% | −13.6% |
| 8 Nov 2021Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00009528 BTC | −7.1% | −11.5% | −16.7% | +3.6% |
| 25 Oct 2021Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.0001147 BTC | −9.9% | −20.2% | −19.8% | −16.9% |
| 29 Sep 2021Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.0001371 BTC | −24.3% | −20.7% | −29.6% | −16.4% |
| 20 Sep 2021Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.0001371 BTC | +6.1% | −27.5% | −36.1% | +0.1% |
| 3 Sep 2021Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.0001060 BTC | +6.0% | +23.5% | −17.9% | +29.3% |
| 26 Aug 2021Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00007555 BTC | +50.9% | +111.5% | +21.2% | +40.4% |
| 29 Jun 2021Lasted 58 days | Bear | 0.00009113 BTC | −1.0% | −25.2% | +59.7% | −17.1% |
| 25 Jun 2021Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.00009474 BTC | +7.3% | −24.4% | +67.9% | −3.8% |
| 21 May 2021Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.00008478 BTC | +12.8% | −22.9% | −21.3% | +11.7% |
| 17 May 2021Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.0001368 BTC | −41.9% | −55.3% | −51.3% | −38.0% |
| 10 May 2021Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.00008735 BTC | +56.6% | −7.4% | −26.3% | +56.6% |
| 20 Apr 2021Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.0001028 BTC | −1.9% | −0.5% | −30.6% | −15.0% |
| 14 Apr 2021Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00006914 BTC | +57.1% | +47.8% | +21.6% | +48.6% |
| 29 Mar 2021Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00007691 BTC | +2.4% | +24.6% | +30.0% | −10.1% |
| 9 Mar 2021Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.00007252 BTC | −8.7% | +5.6% | +17.6% | +6.1% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 9 Mar 2021, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
94 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.