Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Cosmos Hub's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 55 of 56 | 0.0% | −2.4% to +4.6% (94%) | −4.4% to +0.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 54 of 56 | −3.0% | −11.4% to +1.5% (92%) | −12.0% to −1.0% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 53 of 56 | −15.1% | −21.8% to −5.0% (90%) | −23.6% to −3.6% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 55 of 56 | −3.1% | −4.2% to 0.0% (94%) | −4.4% to +0.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 54 of 56 | −9.2% | −12.9% to 0.0% (92%) | −12.0% to −1.0% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 53 of 56 | −14.5% | −22.4% to −8.9% (90%) | −23.6% to −3.6% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 30 May 2019, for comparison | 7 | 2,677 days | −1.9% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 2,654 days | −6.0% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 2,594 days | −13.6% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest six flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are daily closes of the native ATOM/BTC market on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 56 | 1 of 56 |
| After bearish flips | 56 | 1 of 55 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Cosmos Hub's daily line has flipped 15.2 times a year since 30 May 2019.
Cosmos Hub, daily flips: 112 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026Lasted 1 day so far | Bear | 0.00001950 BTC | not yet | not yet | not yet | +3.6% so far |
| 27 Sep 2026Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00002230 BTC | not yet | not yet | not yet | −12.6% |
| 11 Sep 2026Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.00002120 BTC | 0.0% | not yet | not yet | +5.2% |
| 7 Sep 2026Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.00002060 BTC | −1.9% | not yet | not yet | +2.9% |
| 17 Aug 2026Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.00002200 BTC | −12.3% | −9.5% | not yet | −6.4% |
| 3 Aug 2026Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.00002160 BTC | +1.4% | −13.0% | not yet | +1.9% |
| 21 Jun 2026Lasted 43 days | Bear | 0.00002770 BTC | −4.7% | −19.5% | −22.4% | −22.0% |
| 11 May 2026Lasted 41 days | Bull | 0.00002500 BTC | +7.6% | +14.8% | −15.2% | +10.8% |
| 1 May 2026Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00002420 BTC | +0.8% | +9.5% | −18.6% | +3.3% |
| 24 Apr 2026Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00002570 BTC | −5.8% | +3.5% | −15.2% | −5.8% |
| 24 Feb 2026Lasted 59 days | Bear | 0.00003110 BTC | −14.8% | −20.6% | −10.9% | −17.4% |
| 3 Feb 2026Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.00002680 BTC | +4.5% | −3.0% | −11.6% | +16.0% |
| 15 Jan 2026Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.00002590 BTC | +0.8% | +20.8% | −8.9% | +3.5% |
| 2 Jan 2026Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00002410 BTC | +19.1% | +2.9% | +3.3% | +7.5% |
| 26 Nov 2025Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.00002790 BTC | −7.9% | −16.1% | +11.5% | −13.6% |
| 7 Nov 2025Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.00002960 BTC | 0.0% | −18.2% | −2.4% | −5.7% |
| 3 Nov 2025Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.00002350 BTC | +24.3% | +9.4% | +5.5% | +26.0% |
| 13 Oct 2025Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.00003160 BTC | −6.0% | −10.1% | −10.4% | −25.6% |
| 15 Sep 2025Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.00003910 BTC | −5.6% | −23.0% | −38.9% | −19.2% |
| 9 Aug 2025Lasted 37 days | Bull | 0.00004070 BTC | −4.4% | −0.5% | −27.3% | −3.9% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.00003960 BTC | −5.6% | +4.0% | −25.8% | +2.8% |
| 10 Jul 2025Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00003980 BTC | +2.3% | +2.3% | −15.1% | −0.5% |
| 15 May 2025Lasted 56 days | Bear | 0.00004680 BTC | 0.0% | −16.9% | −15.8% | −15.0% |
| 9 May 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00004800 BTC | −3.1% | −15.8% | −20.8% | −2.5% |
| 11 Apr 2025Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.00005090 BTC | −3.9% | 0.0% | −21.8% | −5.7% |
| 15 Mar 2025Lasted 27 days | Bull | 0.00005510 BTC | +5.6% | −11.4% | −29.4% | −7.6% |
| 4 Mar 2025Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.00004770 BTC | −1.9% | +17.0% | −11.5% | +15.5% |
| 26 Feb 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00005470 BTC | −12.6% | −1.6% | −20.1% | −12.8% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 79 days | Bear | 0.00008650 BTC | −3.2% | −21.4% | −45.4% | −36.8% |
| 16 Nov 2024Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.00006770 BTC | +24.2% | +23.6% | −25.7% | +27.8% |
| 13 Nov 2024Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.00005660 BTC | +16.1% | +60.2% | −13.3% | +19.6% |
| 10 Nov 2024Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.00006550 BTC | −3.5% | +25.6% | −27.6% | −13.6% |
| 26 Oct 2024Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.00006520 BTC | −9.4% | +30.8% | −9.0% | +0.5% |
| 21 Oct 2024Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00007270 BTC | −12.4% | −9.6% | −19.9% | −10.3% |
| 3 Oct 2024Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.00007210 BTC | −4.7% | −18.0% | −4.0% | +0.8% |
| 21 Sep 2024Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00007450 BTC | +2.3% | −2.4% | −5.0% | −3.2% |
| 5 Jul 2024Lasted 78 days | Bear | 0.0001007 BTC | +5.6% | −13.8% | −28.4% | −26.0% |
| 24 Jun 2024Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.0001134 BTC | −4.5% | −18.8% | −36.2% | −11.2% |
| 13 May 2024Lasted 42 days | Bear | 0.0001334 BTC | −6.4% | −14.5% | −37.4% | −15.0% |
| 1 May 2024Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.0001498 BTC | −0.9% | −18.0% | −39.5% | −10.9% |
| 17 Mar 2024Lasted 45 days | Bear | 0.0001793 BTC | −3.7% | −28.6% | −39.8% | −16.5% |
| 6 Mar 2024Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.0002153 BTC | −10.2% | −25.4% | −43.8% | −16.7% |
| 31 Jan 2024Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.0002138 BTC | +1.2% | −12.7% | −34.8% | +0.7% |
| 13 Jan 2024Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.0002383 BTC | −1.0% | −16.7% | −41.4% | −10.3% |
| 2 Jan 2024Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.0002440 BTC | −14.1% | −13.0% | −31.6% | −2.3% |
| 12 Dec 2023Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.0002825 BTC | −12.8% | −18.6% | −32.8% | −13.6% |
| 21 Nov 2023Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.0002296 BTC | +6.5% | +13.2% | −9.7% | +23.0% |
| 30 Oct 2023Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.0002350 BTC | +6.1% | +3.7% | −4.6% | −2.3% |
| 4 Oct 2023Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.0002506 BTC | −0.4% | −11.0% | −2.6% | −6.2% |
| 16 Sep 2023Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.0002690 BTC | −1.0% | −13.5% | −3.5% | −6.8% |
| 24 Aug 2023Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.0002753 BTC | −3.1% | −3.2% | −14.5% | −2.3% |
| 18 Aug 2023Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0002907 BTC | −4.3% | −10.0% | −8.7% | −5.3% |
| 2 Aug 2023Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.0002987 BTC | −3.3% | −13.5% | −23.3% | −2.7% |
| 14 Jul 2023Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.0003232 BTC | −2.5% | −11.5% | −23.8% | −7.6% |
| 31 May 2023Lasted 44 days | Bear | 0.0003845 BTC | −6.8% | −20.8% | −30.2% | −15.9% |
| 11 May 2023Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.0004088 BTC | −2.1% | −22.0% | −29.4% | −5.9% |
| 25 Apr 2023Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.0003903 BTC | −1.4% | +1.4% | −21.0% | +4.7% |
| 14 Apr 2023Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.0004021 BTC | −1.4% | +0.8% | −21.8% | −2.9% |
| 15 Feb 2023Lasted 58 days | Bear | 0.0005876 BTC | −4.3% | −18.2% | −31.5% | −31.6% |
| 1 Feb 2023Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.0006287 BTC | +4.9% | −14.5% | −38.8% | −6.5% |
| 16 Jan 2023Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.0005831 BTC | −2.2% | +0.8% | −28.3% | +7.8% |
| 1 Jan 2023Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.0005694 BTC | +8.2% | +1.5% | −29.7% | +2.4% |
| 9 Nov 2022Lasted 53 days | Bear | 0.0006150 BTC | −0.9% | −7.4% | +4.6% | −7.4% |
| 28 Oct 2022Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.0006575 BTC | +8.1% | −8.1% | −13.3% | −6.5% |
| 28 Sep 2022Lasted 30 days | Bear | 0.0006697 BTC | −3.7% | −1.8% | −17.6% | −1.8% |
| 15 Jun 2022Lasted 105 days | Bull | 0.0003245 BTC | +8.7% | +33.9% | +112.3% | +106.4% |
| 14 Mar 2022Lasted 93 days | Bear | 0.0006762 BTC | +0.7% | −11.2% | −60.7% | −52.0% |
| 26 Feb 2022Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.0007638 BTC | +2.6% | −18.4% | −57.6% | −11.5% |
| 28 Jan 2022Lasted 29 days | Bear | 0.0007819 BTC | −4.3% | −9.2% | −33.3% | −2.3% |
| 22 Dec 2021Lasted 37 days | Bull | 0.0005638 BTC | +6.6% | +68.4% | +17.4% | +38.7% |
| 14 Dec 2021Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.0004508 BTC | +7.3% | +96.1% | +50.0% | +25.1% |
| 3 Dec 2021Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.0006124 BTC | −21.9% | +22.6% | +31.0% | −26.4% |
| 28 Nov 2021Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.0004784 BTC | +3.8% | +16.9% | +59.7% | +28.0% |
| 22 Nov 2021Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0005718 BTC | −15.0% | −1.4% | +18.7% | −16.3% |
| 9 Nov 2021Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.0005347 BTC | −12.0% | −11.6% | +34.8% | +6.9% |
| 26 Oct 2021Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.0007117 BTC | −17.7% | −29.1% | +38.0% | −24.9% |
| 5 Oct 2021Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.0007146 BTC | −16.3% | −14.4% | +18.1% | −0.4% |
| 16 Aug 2021Lasted 50 days | Bull | 0.0003443 BTC | +28.0% | +105.7% | +41.5% | +107.6% |
| 16 Jul 2021Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.0003552 BTC | −4.2% | −4.7% | +66.1% | −3.1% |
| 5 Jul 2021Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.0004023 BTC | −2.4% | −20.0% | +99.9% | −11.7% |
| 19 May 2021Lasted 47 days | Bear | 0.0003769 BTC | +3.2% | −7.9% | −4.9% | +6.7% |
| 6 May 2021Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.0004532 BTC | +4.6% | −7.6% | −29.0% | −16.8% |
| 19 Apr 2021Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.0003449 BTC | +18.6% | +9.3% | +0.2% | +31.4% |
| 18 Mar 2021Lasted 32 days | Bull | 0.0003836 BTC | −13.1% | +5.6% | −8.8% | −10.1% |
| 10 Mar 2021Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.0003511 BTC | +1.1% | +4.8% | +15.8% | +9.3% |
| 15 Jan 2021Lasted 54 days | Bull | 0.0002151 BTC | +12.5% | +82.8% | +104.6% | +63.2% |
| 7 Jan 2021Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.0001589 BTC | +4.1% | +94.0% | +119.6% | +35.4% |
| 31 Dec 2020Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.0002234 BTC | −28.9% | +5.2% | +45.4% | −28.9% |
| 20 Oct 2020Lasted 72 days | Bear | 0.0004218 BTC | −10.6% | −32.1% | −38.2% | −47.0% |
| 29 Sep 2020Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.0004898 BTC | −8.8% | −29.8% | −59.4% | −13.9% |
| 3 Sep 2020Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.0004839 BTC | +6.5% | −1.6% | −40.7% | +1.2% |
| 9 Aug 2020Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.0004506 BTC | +16.2% | +8.5% | −30.8% | +7.4% |
| 26 Jul 2020Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.0003840 BTC | −7.9% | +92.9% | +10.2% | +17.3% |
| 4 Jul 2020Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.0003047 BTC | +39.4% | +11.9% | +52.4% | +26.0% |
| 15 Jun 2020Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.0002876 BTC | −3.5% | +53.0% | +78.9% | +5.9% |
| 3 Jun 2020Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.0003009 BTC | +4.7% | −1.4% | +101.4% | −4.4% |
| 29 Apr 2020Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.0003341 BTC | −14.0% | −15.0% | +3.0% | −9.9% |
| 8 Apr 2020Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.0003385 BTC | +1.3% | −15.5% | +3.7% | −1.3% |
| 25 Feb 2020Lasted 43 days | Bear | 0.0004346 BTC | −4.8% | −25.7% | −32.4% | −22.1% |
| 21 Feb 2020Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.0005114 BTC | −20.2% | −35.5% | −45.8% | −15.0% |
| 30 Jan 2020Lasted 22 days | Bear | 0.0004634 BTC | +1.3% | −12.9% | −27.9% | +10.4% |
| 16 Jan 2020Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.0005843 BTC | −9.4% | −20.3% | −41.3% | −20.7% |
| 6 Jan 2020Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.0005290 BTC | −1.0% | −14.9% | −42.4% | +10.5% |
| 25 Nov 2019Lasted 42 days | Bull | 0.0004759 BTC | +5.8% | +24.3% | +1.3% | +11.2% |
| 20 Nov 2019Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.0004117 BTC | +15.4% | +45.4% | +6.1% | +15.6% |
| 4 Nov 2019Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.0003849 BTC | +29.2% | +28.4% | +22.6% | +7.0% |
| 30 Oct 2019Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.0003288 BTC | +24.9% | +57.4% | +48.7% | +17.1% |
| 30 Sep 2019Lasted 30 days | Bull | 0.0003199 BTC | +10.5% | +2.8% | +79.8% | +2.8% |
| 23 Sep 2019Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.0002651 BTC | +20.7% | +35.7% | +114.0% | +20.7% |
| 8 Sep 2019Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.0002622 BTC | +27.0% | +35.3% | +91.4% | +1.1% |
| 21 Jun 2019Lasted 79 days | Bear | 0.0006421 BTC | −25.8% | −38.0% | −52.4% | −59.2% |
| 30 May 2019Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.0007170 BTC | +7.2% | −29.0% | −66.7% | −10.4% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 30 May 2019, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
112 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.