Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after CoW Protocol's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 14 of 15 | −1.9% | −15.3% to +7.3% (94%) | −8.2% to +3.6% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 13 of 15 | +1.9% | −21.4% to +14.4% (91%) | −18.6% to +9.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 12 of 15 | −19.9% | −32.5% to −7.4% (96%) | −31.9% to +4.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 15 of 15 | +1.1% | −5.9% to +15.0% (96%) | −7.3% to +4.5% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 14 of 15 | −4.5% | −12.0% to +20.6% (94%) | −19.9% to +6.8% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 13 of 15 | −6.1% | −26.2% to +7.3% (91%) | −30.4% to +6.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 9 Dec 2024, for comparison | 7 | 657 days | −1.7% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 634 days | −7.4% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 574 days | −16.9% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest five flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 15 | 2 of 15 |
| After bearish flips | 15 | 2 of 15 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
CoW Protocol's daily line has flipped 16.5 times a year since 9 Dec 2024.
CoW Protocol, daily flips: 30 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026Lasted 4 days so far | Bull | 0.000001929 BTC | not yet | not yet | not yet | −0.7% so far |
| 23 Sep 2026Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.000001671 BTC | +18.8% | not yet | not yet | +15.5% |
| 12 Sep 2026Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000001795 BTC | +8.9% | not yet | not yet | −6.9% |
| 17 Aug 2026Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.000001694 BTC | −11.3% | +2.3% | not yet | +6.0% |
| 15 Aug 2026Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.000002235 BTC | −34.1% | −22.7% | not yet | −24.2% |
| 5 Jul 2026Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.000002327 BTC | −5.9% | −26.5% | −17.7% | −3.9% |
| 1 Jun 2026Lasted 34 days | Bull | 0.000002232 BTC | −0.2% | +8.4% | −32.5% | +4.2% |
| 23 Mar 2026Lasted 70 days | Bear | 0.000002964 BTC | −0.7% | −19.8% | −15.9% | −24.7% |
| 7 Feb 2026Lasted 44 days | Bull | 0.000002477 BTC | +30.3% | +39.5% | −7.4% | +19.7% |
| 20 Jan 2026Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.000002470 BTC | −8.4% | +20.6% | −2.1% | +0.3% |
| 27 Nov 2025Lasted 54 days | Bull | 0.000002137 BTC | −1.9% | +14.4% | +49.7% | +15.6% |
| 23 Nov 2025Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000001885 BTC | +11.8% | +35.8% | +63.5% | +13.4% |
| 7 Nov 2025Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.000002100 BTC | −0.3% | +1.9% | +5.9% | −10.2% |
| 30 Sep 2025Lasted 38 days | Bear | 0.000002274 BTC | +1.1% | −12.0% | +7.3% | −7.7% |
| 29 Sep 2025Lasted 1 day | Bull | 0.000002833 BTC | −15.7% | −28.0% | −13.1% | −19.7% |
| 19 Aug 2025Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.000003075 BTC | +3.3% | −4.2% | −31.8% | −7.9% |
| 9 Aug 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000003884 BTC | −15.3% | −21.4% | −45.9% | −20.8% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.000003367 BTC | −1.1% | +1.6% | −37.5% | +15.3% |
| 8 Jul 2025Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.000002981 BTC | +14.9% | +6.8% | −19.9% | +13.0% |
| 13 Jun 2025Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.000003315 BTC | −16.4% | −7.4% | −6.1% | −10.1% |
| 21 May 2025Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.000004217 BTC | −5.1% | −34.3% | −27.1% | −21.4% |
| 17 May 2025Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000003371 BTC | +15.0% | −4.5% | −3.9% | +25.1% |
| 9 May 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.000003566 BTC | −0.6% | −1.3% | −10.7% | −5.5% |
| 6 May 2025Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.000002834 BTC | +47.0% | +21.6% | +13.4% | +25.8% |
| 13 Apr 2025Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.000003471 BTC | −3.9% | +20.0% | −12.0% | −18.4% |
| 6 Mar 2025Lasted 38 days | Bear | 0.000003270 BTC | +2.4% | −8.2% | +17.5% | +6.1% |
| 25 Feb 2025Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.000004693 BTC | −28.4% | −20.9% | −22.6% | −30.3% |
| 8 Jan 2025Lasted 48 days | Bear | 0.000007950 BTC | +0.1% | −53.0% | −66.4% | −41.0% |
| 12 Dec 2024Lasted 27 days | Bull | 0.000006245 BTC | +7.3% | +23.0% | −44.7% | +27.3% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.000004199 BTC | +97.2% | +89.3% | −26.2% | +48.7% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 9 Dec 2024, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
30 flips are a small sample. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.