Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Cronos's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 40 of 40 | −2.1% | −4.5% to +1.0% (92%) | −3.9% to −0.1% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 39 of 40 | −4.7% | −11.1% to +0.5% (95%) | −10.0% to −1.4% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 37 of 40 | −13.5% | −17.1% to −4.1% (90%) | −22.1% to −5.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 40 of 40 | −2.3% | −3.5% to −0.7% (92%) | −3.9% to −0.1% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 40 of 40 | −2.6% | −7.8% to −0.9% (92%) | −10.3% to −1.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 37 of 40 | −15.8% | −23.9% to −4.2% (90%) | −22.1% to −5.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 5 Dec 2021, for comparison | 7 | 1,757 days | −2.0% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 1,734 days | −5.2% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,674 days | −13.8% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest six flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Coinbase. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 40 | 1 of 40 |
| After bearish flips | 40 | 1 of 40 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Cronos's daily line has flipped 16.6 times a year since 5 Dec 2021.
Cronos, daily flips: 80 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Sep 2026Lasted 25 days so far | Bull | 0.0000007538 BTC | −2.9% | not yet | not yet | +4.2% so far |
| 2 Sep 2026Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.0000007038 BTC | +7.3% | +12.9% | not yet | +7.1% |
| 23 Aug 2026Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0000007693 BTC | −4.5% | +0.7% | not yet | −8.5% |
| 22 Jul 2026Lasted 32 days | Bear | 0.0000008745 BTC | −2.3% | −15.3% | not yet | −12.0% |
| 16 Jul 2026Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0000009616 BTC | −8.7% | −21.3% | not yet | −9.1% |
| 7 Jul 2026Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.0000009011 BTC | −4.7% | −7.8% | not yet | +6.7% |
| 3 Jul 2026Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.0000009709 BTC | −10.5% | −11.1% | −16.6% | −7.2% |
| 16 Jun 2026Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.0000009182 BTC | −1.7% | +4.7% | −17.7% | +5.7% |
| 3 Jun 2026Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.0000009635 BTC | +0.3% | +0.8% | −26.4% | −4.7% |
| 17 May 2026Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.0000008991 BTC | −0.5% | +2.1% | −15.8% | +7.2% |
| 10 May 2026Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.0000009245 BTC | −2.7% | +4.6% | −18.3% | −2.7% |
| 22 Feb 2026Lasted 77 days | Bear | 0.000001121 BTC | +1.5% | −5.1% | −19.1% | −17.6% |
| 2 Feb 2026Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.000001059 BTC | +6.3% | +0.5% | −18.2% | +5.9% |
| 12 Jan 2026Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.000001089 BTC | −7.0% | +4.5% | −11.7% | −2.8% |
| 2 Jan 2026Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000001093 BTC | +1.8% | −6.6% | −4.1% | −0.3% |
| 10 Dec 2025Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.000001128 BTC | −6.0% | −1.4% | −4.2% | −3.2% |
| 25 Nov 2025Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.000001264 BTC | −5.7% | −16.2% | −8.7% | −10.8% |
| 13 Sep 2025Lasted 73 days | Bear | 0.000002151 BTC | −7.9% | −30.3% | −48.4% | −41.2% |
| 23 Aug 2025Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.000001374 BTC | +104.4% | +37.9% | −15.2% | +56.6% |
| 19 Aug 2025Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000001206 BTC | +49.3% | +67.7% | −6.4% | +13.9% |
| 7 Aug 2025Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.000001273 BTC | +2.3% | +90.2% | −5.8% | −5.3% |
| 2 Aug 2025Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.000001101 BTC | +22.6% | +124.3% | +20.7% | +15.6% |
| 8 Jul 2025Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.0000008939 BTC | +2.7% | +42.4% | +89.1% | +23.2% |
| 7 Jun 2025Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.0000009184 BTC | −6.2% | −18.8% | +161.1% | −2.7% |
| 30 May 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.0000009583 BTC | −3.3% | −21.1% | +203.2% | −4.2% |
| 11 May 2025Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.0000009459 BTC | −1.0% | −2.4% | +42.7% | +1.3% |
| 9 May 2025Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.0000009836 BTC | −2.1% | −5.8% | +29.4% | −3.8% |
| 6 Apr 2025Lasted 33 days | Bear | 0.000001042 BTC | −2.6% | −10.5% | −28.1% | −5.6% |
| 6 Mar 2025Lasted 31 days | Bull | 0.0000009875 BTC | +1.0% | +11.0% | −3.2% | +5.6% |
| 14 Nov 2024Lasted 112 days | Bear | 0.000001720 BTC | +10.1% | +1.3% | −43.4% | −42.6% |
| 6 Nov 2024Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.000001133 BTC | +69.7% | +83.0% | −4.1% | +51.8% |
| 3 Oct 2024Lasted 34 days | Bear | 0.000001302 BTC | −3.4% | −19.8% | +22.5% | −13.0% |
| 21 Sep 2024Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.000001390 BTC | −5.8% | −17.2% | +20.9% | −6.3% |
| 25 Aug 2024Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.000001377 BTC | −0.4% | −2.1% | +52.1% | +0.9% |
| 6 Aug 2024Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.000001420 BTC | +2.9% | −2.6% | −26.7% | −3.0% |
| 16 Jul 2024Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.000001461 BTC | −4.8% | +4.7% | −18.8% | −2.8% |
| 12 Jul 2024Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.000001516 BTC | −6.6% | −1.4% | −17.1% | −3.6% |
| 13 May 2024Lasted 60 days | Bear | 0.000001964 BTC | −8.5% | −22.6% | −23.9% | −22.8% |
| 28 Apr 2024Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.000002084 BTC | −0.6% | −17.1% | −36.0% | −5.7% |
| 18 Mar 2024Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.000002003 BTC | +6.0% | −0.9% | −25.7% | +4.1% |
| 1 Mar 2024Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000002023 BTC | +17.6% | +6.0% | −15.9% | −1.0% |
| 28 Feb 2024Lasted 2 days | Bear | 0.000001668 BTC | +44.1% | +33.2% | +3.5% | +21.3% |
| 24 Feb 2024Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.000001832 BTC | +28.1% | +15.9% | −3.9% | −9.0% |
| 5 Jan 2024Lasted 50 days | Bear | 0.000002087 BTC | −0.7% | −9.0% | +1.1% | −12.2% |
| 9 Dec 2023Lasted 27 days | Bull | 0.000002603 BTC | −8.1% | −24.9% | −8.6% | −19.8% |
| 14 Nov 2023Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.000002472 BTC | −5.4% | −4.2% | −28.0% | +5.3% |
| 31 Oct 2023Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.000001798 BTC | +25.2% | +30.8% | +7.6% | +37.5% |
| 18 Oct 2023Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.000001807 BTC | −7.2% | +51.0% | +12.9% | −0.5% |
| 12 Oct 2023Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000001907 BTC | −6.5% | +52.0% | +4.3% | −5.2% |
| 13 Sep 2023Lasted 29 days | Bear | 0.000001922 BTC | −1.8% | +1.1% | +26.8% | −0.8% |
| 8 Sep 2023Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.000002038 BTC | −5.8% | −11.6% | +7.4% | −5.7% |
| 29 Aug 2023Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.000001909 BTC | +1.8% | −1.9% | +28.7% | +6.8% |
| 18 Aug 2023Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000001985 BTC | −1.0% | −2.8% | +34.0% | −3.8% |
| 7 Aug 2023Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.000001967 BTC | −1.8% | −0.9% | +1.6% | +0.9% |
| 14 Jul 2023Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.000001962 BTC | +4.1% | −1.3% | −2.8% | +0.3% |
| 10 Jun 2023Lasted 34 days | Bear | 0.000002092 BTC | −3.7% | −12.0% | −2.6% | −6.2% |
| 5 Jun 2023Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.000002261 BTC | −9.0% | −16.5% | −13.5% | −7.5% |
| 4 May 2023Lasted 32 days | Bear | 0.000002440 BTC | −3.5% | −10.1% | −16.5% | −7.3% |
| 21 Apr 2023Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.000002524 BTC | +6.4% | −8.5% | −21.1% | −3.4% |
| 6 Mar 2023Lasted 46 days | Bear | 0.000003226 BTC | −8.1% | −22.8% | −30.9% | −21.8% |
| 21 Feb 2023Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.000003549 BTC | −4.7% | −30.1% | −35.0% | −9.1% |
| 13 Feb 2023Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.000003392 BTC | −0.8% | −16.4% | −29.8% | +4.7% |
| 8 Feb 2023Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.000003645 BTC | −8.2% | −14.2% | −34.7% | −6.9% |
| 18 Jan 2023Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.000003429 BTC | +2.9% | −5.2% | −30.0% | +6.3% |
| 7 Jan 2023Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000003683 BTC | −1.3% | −4.7% | −33.8% | −6.9% |
| 8 Nov 2022Lasted 60 days | Bear | 0.000005542 BTC | −21.5% | −31.9% | −36.7% | −33.5% |
| 31 Oct 2022Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.000005603 BTC | +7.7% | −31.5% | −38.0% | −1.1% |
| 3 Oct 2022Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.000005572 BTC | −3.1% | −2.6% | −38.9% | +0.5% |
| 23 Sep 2022Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000006388 BTC | −11.5% | −14.1% | −46.2% | −12.8% |
| 19 Aug 2022Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.000005870 BTC | +1.4% | −10.4% | −28.2% | +8.8% |
| 2 Aug 2022Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000006581 BTC | −4.7% | −7.9% | −14.9% | −10.8% |
| 23 Jul 2022Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.000005617 BTC | +3.8% | +6.5% | −1.5% | +17.2% |
| 22 Jun 2022Lasted 31 days | Bull | 0.000005719 BTC | +2.1% | +0.9% | −3.7% | −1.8% |
| 25 Apr 2022Lasted 58 days | Bear | 0.000009966 BTC | −28.2% | −37.5% | −42.9% | −42.6% |
| 27 Mar 2022Lasted 29 days | Bull | 0.00001038 BTC | −0.4% | −4.2% | −42.3% | −4.0% |
| 17 Feb 2022Lasted 38 days | Bear | 0.00001062 BTC | −2.9% | −6.7% | −39.4% | −2.2% |
| 28 Jan 2022Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.00001115 BTC | −6.0% | −6.3% | −12.3% | −4.8% |
| 7 Jan 2022Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.00001115 BTC | −4.9% | −1.8% | −7.7% | 0.0% |
| 24 Dec 2021Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.00001235 BTC | −2.6% | −15.5% | −17.1% | −9.7% |
| 5 Dec 2021Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.00001138 BTC | +5.9% | +5.7% | −8.7% | +8.5% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 5 Dec 2021, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
80 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.