Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after deBridge's 4-hour flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 49 of 49 | +0.4% | −3.6% to +1.9% (91%) | −2.3% to +2.6% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 46 of 49 | −4.9% | −14.6% to +3.6% (95%) | −10.9% to +4.2% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 38 of 49 | −2.5% | −7.8% to +2.8% (93%) | too little history | – | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 48 of 49 | +3.2% | −1.1% to +4.5% (94%) | −2.7% to +2.5% | outside the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 46 of 49 | −4.8% | −11.5% to +6.6% (95%) | −10.9% to +4.2% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 38 of 49 | −0.4% | −5.1% to +5.6% (93%) | too little history | – | |
| Any day since 6 Nov 2025, for comparison | 7 | 325 days | +0.5% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 302 days | −3.5% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 242 days | too little history | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest 22 flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Coinbase. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (12 hours) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 49 | 6 of 49 |
| After bearish flips | 49 | 2 of 49 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 12 hours. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
There is less than a year of flips here, too little to count flips a year.
On 4-hour candles the line flips often, and nearly every flip is reversed within 30 days, so the 7-, 30- and 90-day columns mostly show where the market drifted, not what the flip did.
deBridge, 4-hour flips: 98 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days 16 hours so far | Bear | 0.0000002521 BTC | not yet | not yet | not yet | −11.9% so far |
| 23 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000002162 BTC | +20.3% | not yet | not yet | +16.6% |
| 21 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | 0.0000001909 BTC | +40.5% | not yet | not yet | +13.3% |
| 20 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000001980 BTC | +40.4% | not yet | not yet | −3.6% |
| 18 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | 0.0000001952 BTC | +54.0% | not yet | not yet | +1.5% |
| 8 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 10 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000001926 BTC | +3.5% | not yet | not yet | +1.3% |
| 3 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 16 hours | Bear | 0.0000001846 BTC | +3.6% | +20.5% | not yet | +4.3% |
| 29 Aug 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hours | Bull | 0.0000001883 BTC | −0.8% | +42.5% | not yet | −1.9% |
| 19 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 9 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000002302 BTC | −20.4% | −11.5% | not yet | −18.2% |
| 19 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 12 hours | Bull | 0.0000002386 BTC | −23.2% | −14.6% | not yet | −3.5% |
| 17 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bear | 0.0000002340 BTC | −16.8% | −12.1% | not yet | +2.0% |
| 10 Aug 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 7 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000002255 BTC | +5.2% | −14.8% | not yet | +3.8% |
| 8 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bear | 0.0000002173 BTC | +9.6% | −14.4% | not yet | +3.8% |
| 7 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | 0.0000002206 BTC | +8.7% | −15.5% | not yet | −1.5% |
| 3 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.0000002177 BTC | +0.6% | −14.0% | not yet | +1.4% |
| 29 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 5 days | Bull | 0.0000002250 BTC | −4.4% | −19.7% | not yet | −3.3% |
| 26 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000002216 BTC | +0.7% | −15.3% | not yet | +1.5% |
| 26 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000002421 BTC | −7.8% | −22.5% | not yet | −8.5% |
| 21 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days | Bear | 0.0000002623 BTC | −15.4% | −13.6% | not yet | −7.7% |
| 16 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000002594 BTC | −10.0% | −8.2% | not yet | +1.1% |
| 14 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000002536 BTC | +6.5% | −7.7% | not yet | +2.3% |
| 14 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000002640 BTC | +2.4% | −11.3% | not yet | −3.9% |
| 5 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 8 days 16 hours | Bear | 0.0000002425 BTC | +6.2% | −9.7% | −8.3% | +8.9% |
| 5 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000002530 BTC | +1.8% | −13.5% | −12.1% | −4.2% |
| 29 Jun 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hours | Bear | 0.0000002543 BTC | −4.8% | −16.2% | +9.4% | −0.5% |
| 22 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 7 days 20 hours | Bull | 0.0000002304 BTC | +14.2% | +3.6% | −14.4% | +10.4% |
| 15 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 6 days 12 hours | Bear | 0.0000002395 BTC | −3.8% | +5.4% | −18.4% | −3.8% |
| 9 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 20 hours | Bull | 0.0000002417 BTC | −9.9% | +5.5% | −23.1% | −0.9% |
| 8 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | 0.0000002270 BTC | +7.1% | +10.0% | −17.8% | +6.5% |
| 1 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000001992 BTC | +13.8% | +30.3% | −6.7% | +14.0% |
| 27 May 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.0000001941 BTC | +8.5% | +30.3% | −3.3% | +2.6% |
| 26 May 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000001837 BTC | +7.7% | +37.8% | +5.9% | +5.6% |
| 24 May 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bear | 0.0000001778 BTC | +10.7% | +32.6% | +10.8% | +3.3% |
| 22 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000001825 BTC | +13.9% | +22.7% | +24.2% | −2.6% |
| 20 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bear | 0.0000001799 BTC | +13.0% | +21.8% | +26.9% | +1.5% |
| 16 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bull | 0.0000001804 BTC | +1.3% | +34.8% | +33.0% | −0.3% |
| 15 May 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | 0.0000001728 BTC | +3.3% | +41.6% | +35.5% | +4.4% |
| 7 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 7 days 20 hours | Bull | 0.0000001746 BTC | +1.9% | +34.2% | +23.2% | −1.0% |
| 6 May 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | 0.0000001679 BTC | +6.3% | +30.7% | +30.3% | +3.9% |
| 5 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | 0.0000001755 BTC | −2.9% | +23.4% | +24.5% | −4.3% |
| 2 May 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bear | 0.0000001709 BTC | +0.5% | +13.2% | +31.4% | +2.7% |
| 23 Apr 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 9 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000001829 BTC | −3.1% | 0.0% | +30.6% | −6.5% |
| 17 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hours | Bear | 0.0000001691 BTC | +4.0% | +6.4% | +53.5% | +8.2% |
| 17 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000001854 BTC | −5.1% | −3.0% | +39.9% | −8.8% |
| 13 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bear | 0.0000002014 BTC | −15.5% | −11.4% | +27.8% | −8.0% |
| 12 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000002084 BTC | −16.4% | −18.3% | +24.7% | −3.4% |
| 8 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hours | Bear | 0.0000002037 BTC | −8.2% | −14.8% | +21.5% | +2.3% |
| 7 Apr 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bull | 0.0000002110 BTC | −8.6% | −20.2% | +14.7% | −3.5% |
| 29 Mar 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 9 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.0000002431 BTC | −13.1% | −28.2% | +2.8% | −13.2% |
| 27 Mar 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bull | 0.0000002478 BTC | −12.9% | −30.4% | +2.2% | −1.9% |
| 23 Mar 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bear | 0.0000002459 BTC | −5.9% | −31.8% | −8.9% | +0.8% |
| 17 Mar 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 6 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000002335 BTC | +1.4% | −23.6% | +4.1% | +5.3% |
| 16 Mar 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bear | 0.0000002209 BTC | +18.6% | −15.3% | +10.8% | +5.7% |
| 15 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 12 hours | Bull | 0.0000002324 BTC | +8.4% | −17.0% | +3.7% | −4.9% |
| 9 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days | Bear | 0.0000002269 BTC | −1.1% | −10.2% | +4.1% | +2.4% |
| 6 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days | Bull | 0.0000002222 BTC | +1.9% | −4.9% | −2.5% | +2.1% |
| 1 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 5 days 16 hours | Bear | 0.0000002324 BTC | +2.3% | −4.8% | −14.8% | −4.4% |
| 27 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000002436 BTC | −11.9% | +1.0% | −17.3% | −4.6% |
| 25 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bear | 0.0000002301 BTC | −6.1% | +6.6% | −21.2% | +5.9% |
| 18 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 7 days | Bull | 0.0000002357 BTC | +0.4% | +8.5% | −24.8% | −2.4% |
| 17 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | 0.0000002154 BTC | +13.9% | +11.0% | −16.8% | +9.4% |
| 16 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bull | 0.0000002370 BTC | −2.4% | −1.4% | −24.1% | −9.1% |
| 12 Feb 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000002303 BTC | +3.2% | −2.7% | −22.5% | +2.9% |
| 9 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bull | 0.0000002403 BTC | −3.6% | −5.0% | −28.7% | −4.2% |
| 7 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bear | 0.0000002161 BTC | +6.5% | +9.4% | −19.7% | +11.2% |
| 6 Feb 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | 0.0000002370 BTC | +0.2% | +0.2% | −29.0% | −8.8% |
| 5 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bear | 0.0000002197 BTC | +10.2% | +2.8% | −21.0% | +7.9% |
| 1 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hours | Bull | 0.0000002158 BTC | +6.6% | +2.1% | −20.0% | +1.8% |
| 31 Jan 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | 0.0000001957 BTC | +10.4% | +19.7% | −9.6% | +10.3% |
| 30 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000001935 BTC | +19.0% | +20.1% | −8.4% | +1.1% |
| 29 Jan 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 12 hours | Bear | 0.0000001782 BTC | +27.5% | +34.4% | −0.4% | +8.6% |
| 27 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bull | 0.0000001814 BTC | +17.2% | +26.5% | −4.7% | −1.8% |
| 21 Jan 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 6 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000001964 BTC | −9.4% | +22.9% | −15.2% | −7.6% |
| 17 Jan 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bull | 0.0000001979 BTC | −10.0% | +17.0% | −8.0% | −0.7% |
| 12 Jan 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days | Bear | 0.0000002027 BTC | −4.0% | +18.4% | +1.7% | −2.4% |
| 10 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000002036 BTC | −4.8% | +7.5% | +0.6% | −0.5% |
| 8 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | 0.0000001973 BTC | −6.3% | +9.5% | +3.2% | +3.2% |
| 7 Jan 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | 0.0000002013 BTC | +0.5% | +14.3% | +2.8% | −2.0% |
| 5 Jan 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bear | 0.0000001969 BTC | +4.3% | +12.4% | +7.3% | +2.2% |
| 3 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000001992 BTC | +2.2% | +8.6% | +8.4% | −1.2% |
| 30 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bear | 0.0000001891 BTC | +4.3% | −2.8% | +22.4% | +5.4% |
| 28 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bull | 0.0000001961 BTC | +1.2% | −10.8% | +26.4% | −3.6% |
| 17 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 11 days 16 hours | Bear | 0.0000002336 BTC | −12.1% | −19.6% | −5.0% | −16.1% |
| 16 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bull | 0.0000002434 BTC | −13.6% | −24.0% | −7.8% | −4.0% |
| 15 Dec 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bear | 0.0000002365 BTC | −9.5% | −14.5% | −5.1% | +2.9% |
| 11 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000002490 BTC | −6.1% | −18.2% | −8.3% | −5.0% |
| 10 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bear | 0.0000002208 BTC | +5.8% | −10.9% | +5.6% | +12.8% |
| 7 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000002386 BTC | +2.2% | −17.4% | −5.4% | −7.5% |
| 3 Dec 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000002229 BTC | −0.9% | −12.2% | −1.1% | +7.0% |
| 1 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bull | 0.0000002483 BTC | −5.8% | −22.3% | −6.4% | −10.2% |
| 1 Dec 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000002239 BTC | +4.5% | −13.8% | +3.8% | +10.9% |
| 28 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000002280 BTC | −4.4% | −17.7% | +0.7% | −1.8% |
| 27 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | 0.0000002181 BTC | +4.0% | −14.0% | +8.6% | +4.5% |
| 25 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000002322 BTC | +3.6% | −22.8% | −0.3% | −6.1% |
| 19 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days | Bear | 0.0000002439 BTC | −7.0% | −3.3% | −5.1% | −4.8% |
| 13 Nov 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 6 days 12 hours | Bull | 0.0000002402 BTC | −3.6% | +3.8% | −0.1% | +1.5% |
| 7 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000002651 BTC | −6.6% | −16.9% | −14.3% | −9.4% |
| 6 Nov 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bull | 0.0000002846 BTC | −22.0% | −24.3% | −22.2% | −6.8% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 6 Nov 2025, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
98 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.