Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Decred's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 46 of 46 | −2.3% | −5.0% to −0.2% (95%) | −4.0% to +1.1% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 46 of 46 | −6.5% | −9.3% to −0.5% (95%) | −9.3% to +0.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 43 of 46 | −11.4% | −19.0% to +1.3% (93%) | −18.2% to +0.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 46 of 46 | +0.7% | −2.9% to +3.4% (95%) | −4.0% to +1.1% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 46 of 46 | −3.8% | −9.5% to +4.4% (95%) | −9.3% to +0.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 44 of 46 | −11.6% | −16.3% to −0.8% (90%) | −18.7% to −0.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 27 Aug 2020, for comparison | 7 | 2,222 days | −1.2% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 2,199 days | −3.3% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 2,139 days | −10.8% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest five flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 46 | 4 of 46 |
| After bearish flips | 46 | 2 of 46 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Decred's daily line has flipped 15.1 times a year since 27 Aug 2020.
Decred, daily flips: 92 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026Lasted 42 days so far | Bull | 0.0001822 BTC | −0.1% | +14.1% | not yet | +18.3% so far |
| 12 Aug 2026Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.0001928 BTC | −9.8% | +6.8% | not yet | −5.5% |
| 30 Jul 2026Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.0002096 BTC | −7.2% | −13.2% | not yet | −8.0% |
| 22 Jul 2026Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.0001888 BTC | −3.5% | −12.4% | not yet | +11.1% |
| 12 Jul 2026Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0001918 BTC | +2.5% | +6.4% | not yet | −1.6% |
| 5 Jul 2026Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.0001752 BTC | +9.5% | +19.2% | +23.1% | +9.5% |
| 24 Jun 2026Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.0001976 BTC | −7.7% | −8.2% | +10.1% | −11.4% |
| 15 Apr 2026Lasted 70 days | Bear | 0.0002807 BTC | −8.4% | −20.3% | −24.7% | −29.6% |
| 10 Apr 2026Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.0003141 BTC | −12.5% | −24.3% | −44.6% | −10.6% |
| 6 Mar 2026Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.0004243 BTC | −10.3% | −30.6% | −51.5% | −26.0% |
| 1 Feb 2026Lasted 33 days | Bull | 0.0002502 BTC | +41.1% | +70.5% | −4.4% | +69.6% |
| 23 Jan 2026Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.0002144 BTC | +0.7% | +73.7% | +18.1% | +16.7% |
| 13 Jan 2026Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0002040 BTC | +19.4% | +67.6% | +45.5% | +5.1% |
| 8 Jan 2026Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.0001796 BTC | +50.7% | +96.5% | +62.6% | +13.6% |
| 26 Dec 2025Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.0002116 BTC | −7.0% | −4.6% | +52.4% | −15.1% |
| 7 Nov 2025Lasted 49 days | Bear | 0.0002848 BTC | +3.8% | −14.8% | +11.6% | −25.7% |
| 12 Oct 2025Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.0001595 BTC | −3.8% | +80.6% | +8.8% | +78.5% |
| 4 Oct 2025Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.0001441 BTC | +3.4% | +78.8% | +36.6% | +10.7% |
| 2 Oct 2025Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.0001609 BTC | −8.1% | +1.3% | +18.9% | −10.4% |
| 15 Sep 2025Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.0001437 BTC | +1.4% | +12.3% | +51.4% | +12.0% |
| 9 Aug 2025Lasted 37 days | Bull | 0.0001522 BTC | −1.9% | −0.5% | +87.1% | −5.6% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.0001399 BTC | −0.1% | +6.3% | +7.2% | +8.8% |
| 19 Jul 2025Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.0001453 BTC | −0.2% | +1.1% | +8.4% | −3.7% |
| 14 Jul 2025Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.0001402 BTC | +7.1% | +4.4% | +13.8% | +3.6% |
| 4 Jul 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0001439 BTC | −1.7% | −0.2% | +11.8% | −2.6% |
| 21 Jun 2025Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.0001347 BTC | +0.9% | +11.4% | +9.0% | +6.8% |
| 10 May 2025Lasted 42 days | Bull | 0.0001475 BTC | −7.5% | −4.7% | +1.3% | −8.7% |
| 13 Apr 2025Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.0001442 BTC | +3.7% | +1.5% | −1.0% | +2.3% |
| 6 Apr 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.0001419 BTC | +1.6% | −8.8% | +1.6% | +1.6% |
| 29 Mar 2025Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.0001339 BTC | +3.9% | +10.2% | +2.0% | +5.9% |
| 9 Feb 2025Lasted 48 days | Bull | 0.0001299 BTC | +9.6% | +1.6% | +13.6% | +3.1% |
| 11 Dec 2024Lasted 60 days | Bear | 0.0002021 BTC | −15.5% | −25.3% | −34.7% | −35.7% |
| 25 Nov 2024Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.0001694 BTC | +20.1% | +7.6% | −17.5% | +19.3% |
| 12 Nov 2024Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.0001519 BTC | −1.7% | +44.4% | −16.3% | +11.5% |
| 10 Nov 2024Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.0001741 BTC | −17.3% | +17.2% | −28.7% | −12.7% |
| 16 Sep 2024Lasted 55 days | Bear | 0.0001957 BTC | +1.4% | −3.8% | +6.9% | −11.0% |
| 21 Aug 2024Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.0001843 BTC | +2.3% | +6.1% | −19.0% | +6.2% |
| 20 Mar 2024Lasted 154 days | Bear | 0.0003628 BTC | +7.7% | −9.6% | −36.6% | −49.2% |
| 2 Mar 2024Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.0003993 BTC | +3.5% | −4.3% | −23.1% | −9.1% |
| 28 Feb 2024Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.0003402 BTC | +9.3% | +22.1% | −11.6% | +17.4% |
| 23 Feb 2024Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.0003699 BTC | −2.3% | +4.2% | −19.3% | −8.0% |
| 31 Jan 2024Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.0003708 BTC | −4.4% | −2.5% | −13.5% | −0.3% |
| 27 Jan 2024Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.0004326 BTC | −17.1% | −10.3% | −24.3% | −14.3% |
| 1 Jan 2024Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.0004167 BTC | −17.4% | −11.0% | −4.2% | +3.8% |
| 10 Dec 2023Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.0003674 BTC | −1.3% | −8.4% | +12.5% | +13.4% |
| 9 Nov 2023Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.0003855 BTC | +7.9% | −6.8% | −8.0% | −4.7% |
| 6 Nov 2023Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.0004038 BTC | −0.6% | −16.9% | −6.0% | −4.5% |
| 12 Sep 2023Lasted 55 days | Bear | 0.0004861 BTC | +3.0% | −4.7% | −25.2% | −16.9% |
| 20 Aug 2023Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.0005059 BTC | +0.9% | −1.1% | −19.5% | −3.9% |
| 10 Jul 2023Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.0005090 BTC | −2.9% | −3.8% | −7.6% | −0.6% |
| 3 Jul 2023Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.0005456 BTC | −6.7% | −10.6% | −7.9% | −6.7% |
| 21 Jun 2023Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.0004774 BTC | +4.2% | +4.2% | +4.8% | +14.3% |
| 14 Jun 2023Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.0005985 BTC | −20.2% | −14.4% | −18.8% | −20.2% |
| 11 Jun 2023Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.0004802 BTC | +8.4% | +4.7% | +6.2% | +24.6% |
| 9 Jun 2023Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.0005612 BTC | −5.0% | −5.4% | −9.3% | −14.4% |
| 31 May 2023Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.0005818 BTC | −13.3% | −10.7% | −13.7% | −3.5% |
| 4 May 2023Lasted 27 days | Bull | 0.0006575 BTC | +6.9% | −12.9% | −25.8% | −11.5% |
| 4 Mar 2023Lasted 61 days | Bear | 0.0009751 BTC | −9.6% | −25.8% | −41.2% | −32.6% |
| 20 Feb 2023Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.001088 BTC | −4.7% | −35.0% | −43.0% | −10.3% |
| 16 Feb 2023Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.0009835 BTC | +9.7% | −21.7% | −34.9% | +10.6% |
| 7 Feb 2023Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.001054 BTC | −1.6% | −12.0% | −44.0% | −6.7% |
| 19 Dec 2022Lasted 50 days | Bear | 0.001138 BTC | +0.8% | −12.4% | −34.3% | −7.3% |
| 23 Nov 2022Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.001277 BTC | −5.5% | −9.0% | −18.2% | −10.9% |
| 8 Nov 2022Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.001262 BTC | −8.5% | −3.4% | −20.3% | +1.2% |
| 17 Oct 2022Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.001386 BTC | −2.2% | −11.2% | −25.3% | −9.0% |
| 7 Aug 2022Lasted 71 days | Bear | 0.001709 BTC | −18.6% | −12.2% | −22.8% | −18.9% |
| 13 Jul 2022Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.001156 BTC | −8.8% | +25.4% | +11.6% | +47.8% |
| 5 Jul 2022Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.001090 BTC | −0.4% | +8.2% | +21.9% | +6.1% |
| 25 Jun 2022Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.001210 BTC | −3.4% | −6.5% | +7.6% | −9.9% |
| 31 May 2022Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.001145 BTC | +2.5% | −1.0% | +24.0% | +5.7% |
| 19 May 2022Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.001296 BTC | −5.7% | −11.8% | +6.1% | −11.7% |
| 5 May 2022Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.001420 BTC | −23.8% | −17.5% | −18.5% | −8.7% |
| 29 Mar 2022Lasted 37 days | Bull | 0.001404 BTC | −2.9% | +5.9% | −14.2% | +1.1% |
| 20 Feb 2022Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.001464 BTC | −0.9% | −7.5% | −13.5% | −4.1% |
| 14 Jan 2022Lasted 37 days | Bull | 0.001721 BTC | −14.4% | −11.1% | −20.7% | −14.9% |
| 8 Jan 2022Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.001356 BTC | +19.2% | +18.6% | −0.8% | +26.9% |
| 19 Dec 2021Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.001795 BTC | −12.2% | −11.9% | −28.6% | −24.5% |
| 9 Dec 2021Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.001702 BTC | −17.7% | −20.3% | −21.4% | +5.5% |
| 3 Dec 2021Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.001979 BTC | −16.6% | −21.4% | −28.7% | −14.0% |
| 26 Nov 2021Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.001740 BTC | +13.7% | −9.5% | −21.9% | +13.7% |
| 12 Nov 2021Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.001762 BTC | +5.7% | −13.7% | −11.4% | −1.2% |
| 5 Sep 2021Lasted 68 days | Bear | 0.003410 BTC | −8.2% | −28.6% | −46.8% | −48.3% |
| 15 Aug 2021Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.003723 BTC | −3.3% | −17.2% | −52.3% | −8.4% |
| 14 Jul 2021Lasted 32 days | Bear | 0.003495 BTC | −0.4% | +4.1% | −35.4% | +6.5% |
| 28 Jun 2021Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.003808 BTC | +6.9% | −9.3% | −31.1% | −8.2% |
| 9 Jun 2021Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.003726 BTC | −8.0% | +4.4% | −15.0% | +2.2% |
| 27 May 2021Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.003919 BTC | +3.2% | −7.6% | −7.2% | −4.9% |
| 19 May 2021Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.003371 BTC | +9.9% | −4.3% | +8.4% | +16.3% |
| 11 May 2021Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.003872 BTC | +8.5% | −4.1% | −11.9% | −12.9% |
| 5 May 2021Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.003444 BTC | +14.4% | +11.9% | −3.8% | +12.4% |
| 7 Nov 2020Lasted 179 days | Bull | 0.001045 BTC | +11.0% | +34.9% | +93.8% | +229.5% |
| 27 Aug 2020Lasted 72 days | Bear | 0.001481 BTC | −11.7% | −23.7% | −25.6% | −29.4% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 27 Aug 2020, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
92 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.