Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Ethereum's weekly flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bearish flips the median price in Bitcoin was still higher 90 days later. A bearish flip did not by itself mean the price went down. After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 13 of 13 | +2.2% | −0.5% to +10.0% (91%) | −3.7% to +2.7% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 13 of 13 | +5.8% | −2.8% to +22.2% (91%) | −9.8% to +6.4% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 12 of 13 | −4.3% | −20.6% to +25.7% (96%) | −16.2% to +8.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 12 of 12 | −1.8% | −5.7% to +1.9% (96%) | −4.5% to +2.3% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 12 of 12 | −0.4% | −5.7% to +11.2% (96%) | −11.1% to +5.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 12 of 12 | +6.1% | −22.3% to +19.9% (96%) | −16.2% to +8.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 7 Jan 2018, for comparison | 7 | 3,185 days | −0.6% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 3,162 days | −2.2% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 3,102 days | −4.3% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest flip is too recent to count in the 90 day column.
Prices are weekly closes of the native ETH/BTC market on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 weeks) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 13 | 0 of 13 |
| After bearish flips | 12 | 0 of 12 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 weeks. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Ethereum's weekly line has flipped 2.9 times a year since 7 Jan 2018.
Ethereum, weekly flips: 25 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2026Lasted 9 weeks so far | Bull | 0.02989 BTC | −0.8% | +4.0% | not yet | +6.5% so far |
| 16 Nov 2025Lasted 36 weeks | Bear | 0.03285 BTC | −1.8% | +2.6% | −9.0% | −9.0% |
| 11 May 2025Lasted 27 weeks | Bull | 0.02415 BTC | −2.9% | +5.8% | +51.5% | +36.0% |
| 4 Aug 2024Lasted 40 weeks | Bear | 0.04624 BTC | −5.9% | −8.8% | −22.3% | −47.8% |
| 26 May 2024Lasted 10 weeks | Bull | 0.05585 BTC | −0.1% | −1.6% | −22.7% | −17.2% |
| 24 Mar 2024Lasted 9 weeks | Bear | 0.05139 BTC | −0.5% | −5.7% | +5.9% | +8.7% |
| 14 Jan 2024Lasted 10 weeks | Bull | 0.05925 BTC | −0.3% | −10.3% | −20.6% | −13.3% |
| 2 Oct 2022Lasted 67 weeks | Bear | 0.06700 BTC | +1.6% | +15.0% | +7.9% | −11.6% |
| 17 Jul 2022Lasted 11 weeks | Bull | 0.06436 BTC | +10.0% | +22.2% | +3.9% | +4.1% |
| 23 Jan 2022Lasted 25 weeks | Bear | 0.07006 BTC | −2.0% | −1.6% | +6.1% | −8.1% |
| 5 Dec 2021Lasted 7 weeks | Bull | 0.08495 BTC | −2.9% | −2.8% | −20.4% | −17.5% |
| 27 Jun 2021Lasted 23 weeks | Bear | 0.05712 BTC | +15.2% | +2.0% | +19.9% | +48.7% |
| 18 Apr 2021Lasted 10 weeks | Bull | 0.03982 BTC | +18.8% | +97.8% | +51.4% | +43.5% |
| 28 Feb 2021Lasted 7 weeks | Bear | 0.03144 BTC | +7.7% | −0.4% | +109.4% | +26.6% |
| 10 Jan 2021Lasted 7 weeks | Bull | 0.03288 BTC | +4.6% | +15.9% | +8.6% | −4.4% |
| 1 Nov 2020Lasted 10 weeks | Bear | 0.02882 BTC | +1.9% | +8.2% | +39.5% | +14.1% |
| 12 Jul 2020Lasted 16 weeks | Bull | 0.02610 BTC | −0.5% | +27.5% | +25.7% | +10.4% |
| 22 Mar 2020Lasted 16 weeks | Bear | 0.02103 BTC | +0.6% | +18.7% | +16.3% | +24.1% |
| 9 Feb 2020Lasted 6 weeks | Bull | 0.02252 BTC | +15.9% | +12.9% | −2.2% | −6.6% |
| 5 May 2019Lasted 40 weeks | Bear | 0.02823 BTC | −4.4% | +11.2% | −27.3% | −20.2% |
| 30 Dec 2018Lasted 18 weeks | Bull | 0.03624 BTC | +6.4% | −15.5% | −4.3% | −22.1% |
| 22 Jul 2018Lasted 23 weeks | Bear | 0.06186 BTC | −8.2% | −29.8% | −49.0% | −41.4% |
| 6 May 2018Lasted 11 weeks | Bull | 0.08220 BTC | +2.2% | −2.8% | −29.4% | −24.8% |
| 18 Mar 2018Lasted 7 weeks | Bear | 0.06564 BTC | −5.7% | −3.0% | +16.7% | +25.2% |
| 7 Jan 2018Lasted 10 weeks | Bull | 0.06931 BTC | +44.1% | +47.0% | −19.5% | −5.3% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 7 Jan 2018, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
25 flips are a small sample. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.