Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Filecoin's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 39 of 39 | −4.2% | −6.5% to −0.9% (95%) | −4.7% to +0.4% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 38 of 39 | −10.1% | −12.9% to −3.8% (93%) | −13.2% to −2.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 37 of 39 | −23.6% | −28.2% to −17.5% (90%) | −28.3% to −12.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 38 of 38 | −2.5% | −4.7% to +0.2% (93%) | −4.9% to +0.2% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 37 of 38 | −9.6% | −13.9% to −2.2% (90%) | −12.9% to −2.1% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 37 of 38 | −24.9% | −30.1% to −13.2% (90%) | −28.3% to −12.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 9 Feb 2021, for comparison | 7 | 2,056 days | −2.2% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 2,033 days | −8.0% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,973 days | −20.0% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest three flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are daily closes of the native FIL/BTC market on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 39 | 2 of 39 |
| After bearish flips | 38 | 0 of 38 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Filecoin's daily line has flipped 13.6 times a year since 9 Feb 2021.
Filecoin, daily flips: 77 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026Lasted 8 days so far | Bull | 0.00001249 BTC | −2.1% | not yet | not yet | +0.7% so far |
| 15 Sep 2026Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00001077 BTC | +12.3% | not yet | not yet | +16.0% |
| 1 Sep 2026Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.00001001 BTC | +8.0% | +20.2% | not yet | +7.6% |
| 5 Jun 2026Lasted 88 days | Bear | 0.00001200 BTC | −2.0% | +4.7% | −19.1% | −16.6% |
| 27 May 2026Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00001383 BTC | +4.8% | −10.1% | −34.5% | −13.2% |
| 12 May 2026Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.00001357 BTC | −10.0% | −12.0% | −19.0% | +1.9% |
| 6 May 2026Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00001369 BTC | −3.6% | −12.3% | −18.0% | −0.9% |
| 22 Apr 2026Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.00001186 BTC | +1.4% | +7.4% | −2.6% | +15.4% |
| 16 Apr 2026Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00001331 BTC | −10.7% | −6.5% | −8.3% | −10.9% |
| 10 Mar 2026Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.00001238 BTC | +5.9% | +1.8% | −1.2% | +7.5% |
| 14 Feb 2026Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.00001455 BTC | −2.0% | −9.1% | −12.3% | −14.9% |
| 22 Jan 2026Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.00001471 BTC | −4.3% | −3.1% | −19.4% | −1.1% |
| 1 Jan 2026Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.00001675 BTC | −1.8% | −20.3% | −26.7% | −12.2% |
| 11 Nov 2025Lasted 51 days | Bear | 0.00002161 BTC | −1.1% | −31.0% | −38.2% | −22.5% |
| 6 Nov 2025Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00001876 BTC | +10.6% | −10.9% | −23.6% | +15.2% |
| 21 Sep 2025Lasted 46 days | Bear | 0.00002080 BTC | −5.3% | −30.8% | −25.2% | −9.8% |
| 13 Sep 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00002260 BTC | −6.6% | −33.6% | −34.1% | −8.0% |
| 25 Aug 2025Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.00001980 BTC | +5.6% | −1.5% | −6.4% | +14.1% |
| 9 Aug 2025Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00002260 BTC | −4.9% | −3.5% | +45.2% | −12.4% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.00002220 BTC | −5.0% | −0.9% | −35.1% | +1.8% |
| 10 Jul 2025Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00002230 BTC | +1.3% | +1.3% | −13.9% | −0.4% |
| 16 May 2025Lasted 55 days | Bear | 0.00002780 BTC | −4.7% | −17.6% | −23.7% | −19.8% |
| 9 May 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00002940 BTC | −5.4% | −20.1% | −28.2% | −5.4% |
| 10 Mar 2025Lasted 60 days | Bear | 0.00003360 BTC | +7.1% | −11.0% | −30.1% | −12.5% |
| 27 Feb 2025Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00003850 BTC | −10.9% | −13.5% | −31.2% | −12.7% |
| 13 Jan 2025Lasted 45 days | Bear | 0.00005210 BTC | −4.2% | −31.7% | −42.8% | −26.1% |
| 5 Jan 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00006020 BTC | −10.5% | −43.2% | −46.3% | −13.5% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.00006460 BTC | −4.8% | −16.7% | −46.6% | −6.8% |
| 16 Nov 2024Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.00005240 BTC | +5.0% | +17.4% | −30.9% | +23.3% |
| 12 Nov 2024Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.00004800 BTC | +0.2% | +40.0% | −26.9% | +9.2% |
| 9 Nov 2024Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.00005290 BTC | −0.9% | +22.1% | −37.6% | −9.3% |
| 1 Oct 2024Lasted 39 days | Bear | 0.00005840 BTC | −0.2% | −13.9% | −8.9% | −9.4% |
| 25 Sep 2024Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00006260 BTC | −6.7% | −17.6% | −11.5% | −6.7% |
| 15 Sep 2024Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00005840 BTC | +0.3% | −2.9% | +8.6% | +7.2% |
| 9 Sep 2024Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00006320 BTC | −7.3% | −8.7% | +22.9% | −7.6% |
| 29 Aug 2024Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.00006140 BTC | −2.6% | +2.1% | −1.3% | +2.9% |
| 22 Aug 2024Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00006550 BTC | −6.3% | −6.9% | −31.3% | −6.3% |
| 25 Jul 2024Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.00006380 BTC | −0.2% | +3.8% | −13.2% | +2.7% |
| 11 Jul 2024Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.00007120 BTC | −3.7% | −12.9% | −19.0% | −10.4% |
| 19 Mar 2024Lasted 114 days | Bear | 0.0001290 BTC | +4.7% | −26.7% | −42.6% | −44.8% |
| 3 Mar 2024Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.0001664 BTC | −6.8% | −21.2% | −48.6% | −22.5% |
| 27 Feb 2024Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.0001343 BTC | +3.7% | −2.2% | −34.3% | +23.9% |
| 17 Feb 2024Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0001203 BTC | +30.7% | +9.2% | −27.0% | +11.6% |
| 3 Jan 2024Lasted 45 days | Bear | 0.0001467 BTC | −13.2% | −20.3% | −10.6% | −18.0% |
| 16 Dec 2023Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.0001348 BTC | −4.2% | +3.3% | +4.3% | +8.8% |
| 20 Nov 2023Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.0001250 BTC | −2.5% | −2.5% | −3.7% | +7.8% |
| 2 Nov 2023Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.0001172 BTC | +4.6% | +0.9% | −0.6% | +6.7% |
| 25 Oct 2023Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.0001092 BTC | +1.8% | +12.6% | +12.5% | +7.3% |
| 23 Oct 2023Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.0001169 BTC | −4.3% | +2.4% | +10.3% | −6.6% |
| 8 Aug 2023Lasted 76 days | Bear | 0.0001391 BTC | −5.0% | −10.5% | −10.9% | −16.0% |
| 3 Jul 2023Lasted 36 days | Bull | 0.0001519 BTC | −6.5% | −3.8% | −18.5% | −8.4% |
| 5 Jun 2023Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.0001639 BTC | −16.9% | −8.1% | −25.6% | −7.3% |
| 30 May 2023Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0001743 BTC | −7.3% | −27.8% | −25.5% | −6.0% |
| 28 Feb 2023Lasted 91 days | Bear | 0.0002802 BTC | −4.0% | −29.2% | −40.4% | −37.8% |
| 8 Jan 2023Lasted 51 days | Bull | 0.0002012 BTC | +11.9% | +18.4% | +2.5% | +39.3% |
| 8 Nov 2022Lasted 61 days | Bear | 0.0002581 BTC | +0.7% | −1.2% | −12.8% | −22.0% |
| 29 Oct 2022Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0002747 BTC | +5.5% | −4.4% | −15.0% | −6.0% |
| 18 Sep 2022Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.0002700 BTC | +12.6% | −1.9% | −29.4% | +1.7% |
| 3 Sep 2022Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.0003290 BTC | −10.6% | −14.6% | −17.5% | −17.9% |
| 14 Aug 2022Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.0003380 BTC | −11.8% | −13.9% | −24.9% | −2.7% |
| 30 Jul 2022Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.0003400 BTC | +21.2% | −12.9% | −23.4% | −0.6% |
| 20 Jul 2022Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.0002400 BTC | +2.9% | +29.6% | +10.4% | +41.7% |
| 14 Jun 2022Lasted 36 days | Bull | 0.0002480 BTC | +16.1% | +5.2% | +18.1% | −3.2% |
| 29 Apr 2022Lasted 46 days | Bear | 0.0004480 BTC | −14.1% | −42.4% | −44.4% | −44.6% |
| 16 Apr 2022Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.0005360 BTC | −10.4% | −48.3% | −53.2% | −16.4% |
| 11 Apr 2022Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.0004630 BTC | +3.9% | −36.1% | −43.2% | +15.8% |
| 27 Mar 2022Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.0005050 BTC | +8.7% | −10.3% | −44.0% | −8.3% |
| 9 Mar 2022Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.0004490 BTC | −5.6% | +12.2% | −47.7% | +12.5% |
| 27 Feb 2022Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0005400 BTC | −11.1% | +3.0% | −51.9% | −16.9% |
| 4 Dec 2021Lasted 85 days | Bear | 0.0008350 BTC | −2.0% | −9.6% | −42.4% | −35.3% |
| 26 Nov 2021Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.0009830 BTC | −5.7% | −25.2% | −51.1% | −15.1% |
| 7 Sep 2021Lasted 80 days | Bear | 0.001802 BTC | −4.8% | −26.2% | −57.3% | −45.4% |
| 2 Aug 2021Lasted 36 days | Bull | 0.001391 BTC | +5.1% | +15.8% | −24.4% | +29.6% |
| 10 Jun 2021Lasted 53 days | Bear | 0.001999 BTC | −9.5% | −19.1% | −4.1% | −30.4% |
| 3 Jun 2021Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.002280 BTC | −12.3% | −25.5% | −29.3% | −12.3% |
| 10 May 2021Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.002431 BTC | −6.0% | −14.4% | −39.4% | −6.2% |
| 9 Feb 2021Lasted 90 days | Bull | 0.0009495 BTC | −10.5% | −23.1% | +156.0% | +156.0% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 9 Feb 2021, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
77 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.