Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Four's 4-hour flips
After bullish flips the median price was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 64 of 64 | −3.6% | −6.5% to +1.6% (94%) | −6.1% to +1.9% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 60 of 64 | −8.2% | −14.0% to −0.3% (91%) | −12.2% to +4.4% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 54 of 64 | −26.9% | −42.1% to −10.7% (92%) | −41.6% to −6.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 64 of 65 | −1.8% | −3.6% to +1.1% (94%) | −6.1% to +1.9% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 60 of 65 | −3.6% | −14.2% to +3.0% (91%) | −12.2% to +4.4% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 54 of 65 | −24.9% | −39.1% to −11.8% (92%) | −41.6% to −6.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 29 Mar 2025, for comparison | 7 | 547 days | −1.2% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 524 days | −2.5% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 464 days | −20.3% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest 21 flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are 4-hour closes on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (12 hours) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 64 | 0 of 64 |
| After bearish flips | 65 | 2 of 65 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 12 hours. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Four's 4-hour line has flipped 85.1 times a year since 29 Mar 2025, 08:00 UTC.
On 4-hour candles the line flips often, and nearly every flip is reversed within 30 days, so the 7-, 30- and 90-day columns mostly show where the market drifted, not what the flip did.
Four, 4-hour flips: 65 bearish flips of 129
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days 16 hours so far | Bear | $0.2950 | not yet | not yet | not yet | −4.8% so far |
| 22 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bear | $0.3062 | −3.6% | not yet | not yet | +7.2% |
| 20 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bear | $0.2525 | +28.4% | not yet | not yet | +6.2% |
| 9 Sep 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 8 days | Bear | $0.2757 | −12.8% | not yet | not yet | −8.8% |
| 6 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | $0.2678 | −4.2% | not yet | not yet | +38.8% |
| 24 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 20 hours | Bear | $0.2548 | −1.1% | +23.7% | not yet | +0.9% |
| 10 Aug 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 9 days 12 hours | Bear | $0.2218 | −8.9% | +47.4% | not yet | −5.3% |
| 7 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | $0.2085 | +5.9% | +35.0% | not yet | +8.3% |
| 31 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 16 hours | Bear | $0.2063 | +1.1% | +20.6% | not yet | +3.6% |
| 16 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hours | Bear | $0.1959 | −0.4% | +4.7% | not yet | +3.6% |
| 6 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 8 days 4 hours | Bear | $0.2155 | −6.1% | −3.6% | not yet | −5.3% |
| 23 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 10 days 8 hours | Bear | $0.2428 | −11.2% | −19.6% | +6.5% | −9.3% |
| 18 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bear | $0.2273 | −2.7% | −18.2% | +5.7% | +7.0% |
| 5 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 12 days 4 hours | Bear | $0.2496 | −5.8% | −10.4% | +6.7% | −2.9% |
| 2 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | $0.2436 | +4.2% | −15.3% | +3.4% | +11.5% |
| 27 May 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bear | $0.2232 | +11.9% | −5.2% | +13.8% | +7.0% |
| 22 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bear | $0.2276 | −2.1% | +3.0% | −5.9% | +3.6% |
| 12 May 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 9 days 8 hours | Bear | $0.2794 | −16.6% | −19.9% | −15.8% | −14.7% |
| 6 May 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bear | $0.2679 | +3.1% | +9.4% | −23.5% | +9.6% |
| 27 Apr 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bear | $0.2532 | +13.1% | −10.7% | −24.9% | +5.0% |
| 18 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bear | $0.2671 | −1.9% | −7.2% | −29.2% | +3.9% |
| 9 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bear | $0.2026 | +29.0% | +40.5% | +2.8% | +12.9% |
| 27 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 11 days 8 hours | Bear | $0.2467 | −19.1% | +4.9% | −10.3% | −13.8% |
| 14 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 7 days 4 hours | Bear | $0.2747 | −11.1% | −20.7% | −14.4% | −6.4% |
| 5 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 7 days 20 hours | Bear | $0.3050 | −9.2% | −32.0% | −18.1% | −4.7% |
| 27 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bear | $0.1905 | +65.4% | +32.5% | +17.8% | +1.1% |
| 15 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 9 days 20 hours | Bear | $0.2159 | −2.5% | +29.1% | +20.5% | −7.0% |
| 29 Jan 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 15 days 12 hours | Bear | $0.3023 | −19.1% | −36.7% | −18.7% | −29.5% |
| 15 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 12 days 20 hours | Bear | $0.3773 | −14.6% | −42.7% | −32.9% | −15.1% |
| 12 Jan 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | $0.3793 | −5.2% | −45.5% | −39.1% | +9.5% |
| 7 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bear | $0.3634 | +7.3% | −40.5% | −44.3% | +6.4% |
| 31 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bear | $0.3424 | +14.2% | −15.0% | −32.7% | +10.3% |
| 28 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | $0.3333 | +9.6% | −5.6% | −25.6% | +1.6% |
| 18 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 8 days 20 hours | Bear | $0.3654 | −9.4% | +3.9% | −27.0% | −5.6% |
| 15 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bear | $0.3021 | +5.9% | +29.1% | −9.7% | +24.6% |
| 5 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 9 days 16 hours | Bear | $0.3457 | −12.4% | +5.6% | −11.8% | −0.7% |
| 30 Nov 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bear | $0.3753 | −6.8% | −14.2% | −49.0% | −6.4% |
| 19 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 20 hours | Bear | $0.3951 | −0.2% | −15.7% | −43.8% | −0.1% |
| 12 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 5 days 20 hours | Bear | $0.4358 | −1.4% | −30.5% | −51.2% | −0.2% |
| 7 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 8 hours | Bear | $0.4212 | −3.1% | −16.9% | −42.0% | +13.4% |
| 27 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 9 days 4 hours | Bear | $0.7231 | −27.3% | −45.5% | −54.7% | −33.7% |
| 16 Oct 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 9 days 20 hours | Bear | $0.9004 | −21.9% | −56.4% | −56.7% | −10.9% |
| 9 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bear | $1.16 | −15.9% | −59.9% | −66.3% | −11.1% |
| 29 Sep 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bear | $1.13 | −1.8% | −40.7% | −69.1% | +10.1% |
| 25 Sep 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bear | $1.08 | −3.2% | −35.9% | −68.9% | −0.5% |
| 8 Sep 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 15 days 12 hours | Bear | $3.79 | −40.4% | −64.4% | −90.8% | −66.8% |
| 31 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bear | $3.27 | +12.3% | −67.0% | −87.8% | +3.0% |
| 28 Aug 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bear | $3.50 | +2.8% | −71.5% | −88.7% | +5.8% |
| 14 Aug 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 12 days 4 hours | Bear | $3.76 | −4.7% | −28.8% | −88.3% | −6.9% |
| 10 Aug 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bear | $3.89 | −4.1% | −2.6% | −88.0% | +1.0% |
| 29 Jul 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 8 hours | Bear | $3.36 | +13.7% | +4.0% | −76.3% | +10.9% |
| 25 Jul 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bear | $3.33 | +13.5% | +6.6% | −78.9% | +4.6% |
| 21 Jul 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bear | $3.36 | +3.2% | +5.3% | −75.0% | +5.2% |
| 11 Jul 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 5 days 20 hours | Bear | $3.30 | +2.1% | +24.1% | −57.8% | +0.3% |
| 3 Jul 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 6 days 8 hours | Bear | $2.86 | +1.6% | +32.7% | −63.3% | −3.3% |
| 20 Jun 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bear | $2.41 | +15.9% | +45.7% | −19.8% | +3.9% |
| 5 Jun 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 12 days 4 hours | Bear | $2.77 | −1.3% | +1.9% | +19.4% | −4.2% |
| 30 May 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bear | $2.90 | −5.4% | −3.4% | +20.5% | +2.4% |
| 19 May 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bear | $2.63 | +8.7% | −2.4% | +41.9% | +10.6% |
| 13 May 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hours | Bear | $2.61 | +0.1% | +5.1% | +49.3% | +9.0% |
| 6 May 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hours | Bear | $2.43 | +15.0% | +14.1% | +57.1% | +12.2% |
| 25 Apr 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bear | $2.09 | +3.9% | +38.0% | +67.7% | +3.8% |
| 11 Apr 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 7 days 8 hours | Bear | $1.96 | +3.5% | +22.5% | +48.3% | +6.7% |
| 2 Apr 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 7 days 16 hours | Bear | $2.18 | −10.5% | −0.4% | +34.1% | −2.9% |
| 29 Mar 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bear | $2.20 | −1.0% | −2.4% | +27.3% | +9.7% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 29 Mar 2025, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
129 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.