Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Genius's 4-hour flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 16 of 17 | −0.5% | −3.7% to +2.6% (92%) | −10.8% to +3.0% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 12 of 17 | −20.2% | −31.3% to +4.6% (96%) | too little history | – | |
| 90 | 6 of 17 | −49.3% | −59.1% to −36.8% (97%) | too little history | – | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 17 of 17 | −3.7% | −9.8% to +8.2% (95%) | −10.1% to +3.7% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 13 of 17 | −22.9% | −26.6% to −7.1% (91%) | too little history | – | |
| 90 | 7 of 17 | −45.5% | −55.1% to −20.2% (98%) | too little history | – | |
| Any day since 25 May 2026, for comparison | 7 | 125 days | −4.0% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 102 days | too little history | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 42 days | too little history | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest 21 flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (12 hours) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 17 | 1 of 17 |
| After bearish flips | 17 | 0 of 17 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 12 hours. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
There is less than a year of flips here, too little to count flips a year.
On 4-hour candles the line flips often, and nearly every flip is reversed within 30 days, so the 7-, 30- and 90-day columns mostly show where the market drifted, not what the flip did.
Genius, 4-hour flips: 34 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 3 days so far | Bull | 0.000003859 BTC | not yet | not yet | not yet | −0.5% so far |
| 21 Sep 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 9 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.000004044 BTC | −3.5% | not yet | not yet | −4.6% |
| 20 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bull | 0.000004595 BTC | −11.6% | not yet | not yet | −12.0% |
| 17 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bear | 0.000004560 BTC | −11.3% | not yet | not yet | +0.8% |
| 11 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000003893 BTC | +21.1% | not yet | not yet | +17.1% |
| 10 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | 0.000003683 BTC | +8.2% | not yet | not yet | +5.7% |
| 8 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bull | 0.000003903 BTC | −2.0% | not yet | not yet | −5.6% |
| 6 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.000003675 BTC | +4.5% | not yet | not yet | +6.2% |
| 5 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bull | 0.000003693 BTC | +6.8% | not yet | not yet | −0.5% |
| 3 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bear | 0.000003553 BTC | +3.7% | +9.0% | not yet | +4.0% |
| 3 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bull | 0.000003701 BTC | −0.5% | +4.6% | not yet | −4.0% |
| 15 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 18 days 16 hours | Bear | 0.000005742 BTC | −24.1% | −33.0% | not yet | −35.6% |
| 10 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 16 hours | Bull | 0.000005638 BTC | +2.9% | −31.2% | not yet | +1.9% |
| 6 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bear | 0.000005091 BTC | +16.5% | −28.0% | not yet | +10.7% |
| 31 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.000005300 BTC | −0.7% | −31.3% | not yet | −3.9% |
| 26 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.000005551 BTC | −7.8% | −28.7% | not yet | −4.5% |
| 20 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000005035 BTC | +14.2% | +12.0% | not yet | +10.2% |
| 18 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | 0.000004978 BTC | +13.3% | +16.6% | not yet | +1.2% |
| 16 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.000005246 BTC | +2.6% | +11.2% | not yet | −5.1% |
| 11 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hours | Bear | 0.000005387 BTC | −5.5% | −1.3% | not yet | −2.6% |
| 10 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bull | 0.000005857 BTC | −10.6% | −8.9% | not yet | −8.0% |
| 2 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 8 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.000006335 BTC | −9.8% | −17.3% | −39.6% | −7.5% |
| 25 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 7 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.000006474 BTC | +1.7% | −12.9% | −36.8% | −2.1% |
| 23 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bear | 0.000005791 BTC | +13.0% | −7.1% | −20.2% | +11.8% |
| 19 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bull | 0.000006585 BTC | +1.1% | −25.2% | −39.5% | −12.1% |
| 15 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bear | 0.000006753 BTC | −3.7% | −24.5% | −43.1% | −2.5% |
| 15 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bull | 0.000007517 BTC | −13.5% | −32.2% | −48.9% | −10.2% |
| 13 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | 0.000006881 BTC | −8.1% | −22.9% | −45.5% | +9.2% |
| 8 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.000007423 BTC | +1.3% | −20.2% | −49.3% | −7.3% |
| 4 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.000007041 BTC | +8.8% | −12.7% | −49.1% | +5.4% |
| 2 Jun 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bull | 0.000007408 BTC | −3.7% | −11.1% | −51.1% | −5.0% |
| 28 May 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.000008741 BTC | −14.4% | −25.6% | −55.1% | −15.2% |
| 28 May 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 12 hours | Bull | 0.000009590 BTC | −22.0% | −32.2% | −59.1% | −8.9% |
| 25 May 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bear | 0.000008515 BTC | −27.9% | −26.6% | −49.1% | +12.6% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 25 May 2026, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
34 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.