Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Genius's 4-hour flips
After bullish flips the median price was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 14 of 15 | −3.3% | −10.9% to +0.7% (94%) | −9.8% to +3.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 11 of 15 | −16.1% | −23.9% to +1.0% (93%) | too little history | – | |
| 90 | 5 of 15 | −36.1% | −44.6% to −13.7% (94%) | too little history | – | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 14 of 14 | −3.0% | −8.5% to +5.3% (94%) | −9.8% to +3.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 10 of 14 | −11.9% | −22.9% to +10.2% (98%) | too little history | – | |
| 90 | 5 of 14 | −32.2% | −42.1% to +3.0% (94%) | too little history | – | |
| Any day since 3 Jun 2026, for comparison | 7 | 117 days | −2.1% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 94 days | too little history | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 34 days | too little history | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest 19 flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are 4-hour closes on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (12 hours) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 15 | 0 of 15 |
| After bearish flips | 14 | 0 of 14 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 12 hours. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
There is less than a year of flips here, too little to count flips a year.
On 4-hour candles the line flips often, and nearly every flip is reversed within 30 days, so the 7-, 30- and 90-day columns mostly show where the market drifted, not what the flip did.
Genius, 4-hour flips: 14 bearish flips of 29
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 7 days 12 hours | Bear | $0.3300 | −3.0% | not yet | not yet | −1.0% |
| 18 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bear | $0.3282 | +8.1% | not yet | not yet | +18.8% |
| 10 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | $0.2884 | +5.3% | not yet | not yet | +4.9% |
| 7 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | $0.2928 | +1.0% | not yet | not yet | +4.5% |
| 22 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 12 days | Bear | $0.3233 | −12.6% | +16.0% | not yet | −11.0% |
| 14 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 6 days 20 hours | Bear | $0.3682 | −15.5% | −19.4% | not yet | −8.4% |
| 6 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bear | $0.3281 | +14.8% | −11.0% | not yet | +10.5% |
| 28 Jul 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 6 days 12 hours | Bear | $0.3494 | −1.3% | −11.9% | not yet | +0.6% |
| 13 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 7 days 12 hours | Bear | $0.3385 | −6.1% | +10.2% | not yet | −3.3% |
| 5 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hours | Bear | $0.3834 | −9.9% | −10.0% | −14.6% | −2.2% |
| 23 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bear | $0.3642 | +8.3% | −2.3% | +3.0% | +12.2% |
| 16 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hours | Bear | $0.4359 | −8.2% | −23.5% | −32.2% | −0.3% |
| 13 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | $0.4393 | −8.5% | −22.9% | −34.7% | +12.5% |
| 4 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bear | $0.4798 | −1.8% | −19.9% | −42.1% | −2.0% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 3 Jun 2026, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
29 flips are a small sample. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.