Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Golem's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. The bullish median is outside the range of ordinary days, which about 1 cell in 20 is by chance alone.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 30 of 30 | −4.5% | −6.5% to +4.4% (90%) | −4.5% to +0.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 29 of 30 | −5.9% | −11.8% to −2.4% (94%) | −11.0% to +0.2% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 28 of 30 | −24.4% | −25.0% to −15.2% (91%) | −23.5% to −6.7% | outside the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 30 of 30 | −0.7% | −2.4% to +2.6% (90%) | −4.5% to +0.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 30 of 30 | −4.2% | −7.4% to −0.7% (90%) | −11.5% to −0.6% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 29 of 30 | −15.9% | −17.5% to −12.7% (94%) | −22.3% to −6.0% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 9 Apr 2023, for comparison | 7 | 1,267 days | −1.6% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 1,244 days | −5.9% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,184 days | −14.3% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest three flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 30 | 0 of 30 |
| After bearish flips | 30 | 1 of 30 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Golem's daily line has flipped 17.2 times a year since 9 Apr 2023.
Golem, daily flips: 60 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026Lasted 21 days so far | Bull | 0.000001471 BTC | +2.6% | not yet | not yet | +4.2% so far |
| 1 Sep 2026Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.000001340 BTC | +5.2% | +11.4% | not yet | +9.8% |
| 22 Aug 2026Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000001413 BTC | +1.8% | +1.5% | not yet | −5.1% |
| 5 Jul 2026Lasted 48 days | Bear | 0.000001607 BTC | −3.0% | −10.9% | −4.6% | −12.1% |
| 30 Jun 2026Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.000001813 BTC | −16.1% | −21.1% | −16.8% | −11.4% |
| 6 Jun 2026Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.000001803 BTC | −4.3% | −11.6% | −25.0% | +0.5% |
| 1 Jun 2026Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.000001913 BTC | −6.4% | −11.8% | −28.1% | −5.7% |
| 17 May 2026Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.000001714 BTC | +5.2% | −0.3% | −17.4% | +11.6% |
| 11 May 2026Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000001881 BTC | −7.2% | −9.7% | −24.7% | −8.9% |
| 4 May 2026Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.000001687 BTC | +11.5% | +19.1% | −14.3% | +11.5% |
| 30 Apr 2026Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.000001868 BTC | −4.5% | −3.9% | −25.0% | −9.7% |
| 22 Apr 2026Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.000001679 BTC | +8.7% | +7.7% | −10.4% | +11.2% |
| 16 Apr 2026Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000001826 BTC | −7.0% | −4.1% | −15.2% | −8.0% |
| 5 Apr 2026Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.000001830 BTC | −4.3% | −7.2% | −10.8% | −0.2% |
| 27 Mar 2026Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.000002012 BTC | −6.5% | −13.6% | −23.5% | −9.1% |
| 15 Jan 2026Lasted 71 days | Bear | 0.000002971 BTC | −12.2% | −3.6% | −42.4% | −32.3% |
| 30 Dec 2025Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.000002465 BTC | +12.9% | +6.4% | −22.3% | +20.5% |
| 26 Dec 2025Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000002253 BTC | +14.1% | +11.9% | −15.9% | +9.4% |
| 31 Oct 2025Lasted 56 days | Bull | 0.000001707 BTC | +21.8% | +61.9% | +53.6% | +32.0% |
| 31 Jul 2025Lasted 92 days | Bear | 0.000002229 BTC | −7.5% | −1.7% | −24.9% | −23.4% |
| 27 Jul 2025Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.000002604 BTC | −20.7% | −17.8% | −38.1% | −14.4% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000002215 BTC | +5.0% | −1.3% | −25.9% | +17.6% |
| 12 Jul 2025Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000002209 BTC | +8.4% | −3.0% | −29.7% | +0.3% |
| 17 May 2025Lasted 56 days | Bear | 0.000002591 BTC | −6.3% | −18.2% | −15.6% | −14.7% |
| 10 May 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000002855 BTC | −9.2% | −21.8% | −25.2% | −9.2% |
| 1 May 2025Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.000002818 BTC | −5.4% | −20.4% | −17.5% | +1.3% |
| 18 Apr 2025Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.000003161 BTC | −4.5% | −18.8% | −24.5% | −10.8% |
| 11 Mar 2025Lasted 38 days | Bear | 0.000003268 BTC | +6.3% | −7.4% | −31.7% | −3.3% |
| 27 Feb 2025Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.000004368 BTC | −22.8% | −29.0% | −44.6% | −25.2% |
| 18 Feb 2025Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.000003051 BTC | +26.0% | +10.7% | −17.2% | +43.2% |
| 12 Feb 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000002874 BTC | +8.8% | +25.0% | −0.4% | +6.2% |
| 18 Jan 2025Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.000003601 BTC | −10.0% | −8.2% | −12.2% | −20.2% |
| 5 Jan 2025Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.000004381 BTC | −3.0% | −41.0% | −33.1% | −17.8% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.000004332 BTC | −2.0% | −5.6% | −23.2% | +1.1% |
| 18 Nov 2024Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.000004112 BTC | +21.1% | −10.3% | +0.5% | +5.3% |
| 16 Oct 2024Lasted 33 days | Bear | 0.000004870 BTC | +0.1% | −23.2% | −17.2% | −15.6% |
| 20 Sep 2024Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.000004957 BTC | +10.9% | +3.9% | −27.0% | −1.8% |
| 26 Aug 2024Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.000004851 BTC | −2.4% | +13.4% | −12.7% | +2.2% |
| 11 Aug 2024Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.000005365 BTC | −6.4% | −10.9% | −21.9% | −9.6% |
| 1 Aug 2024Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.000004771 BTC | −0.3% | −0.7% | −8.5% | +12.5% |
| 8 Jul 2024Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.000005596 BTC | −6.5% | −15.2% | −2.3% | −14.8% |
| 19 May 2024Lasted 50 days | Bear | 0.000007661 BTC | −0.7% | −26.2% | −34.2% | −26.9% |
| 27 Apr 2024Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.000007776 BTC | +16.1% | −2.5% | −34.3% | −1.5% |
| 16 Mar 2024Lasted 42 days | Bear | 0.000007456 BTC | +2.6% | −22.8% | −15.9% | +4.3% |
| 2 Mar 2024Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.000008631 BTC | +19.3% | −5.9% | −13.1% | −13.6% |
| 28 Feb 2024Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.000006279 BTC | +49.3% | +43.6% | +20.5% | +37.5% |
| 18 Feb 2024Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000004651 BTC | +69.7% | +52.2% | +72.2% | +35.0% |
| 30 Jan 2024Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.000004925 BTC | −3.6% | +23.4% | +66.7% | −5.6% |
| 21 Jan 2024Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.000005399 BTC | −6.9% | +27.5% | +15.3% | −8.8% |
| 18 Nov 2023Lasted 64 days | Bear | 0.000007340 BTC | −12.3% | −23.8% | −41.3% | −26.4% |
| 8 Nov 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000006830 BTC | +13.0% | −15.8% | −30.5% | +7.5% |
| 23 Oct 2023Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.000006368 BTC | +3.2% | +0.6% | −15.2% | +7.2% |
| 19 Oct 2023Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.000007018 BTC | −11.8% | +4.6% | −24.4% | −9.3% |
| 2 Oct 2023Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.000006518 BTC | +0.7% | −3.8% | −13.3% | +7.7% |
| 16 Sep 2023Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.000006634 BTC | +2.3% | −2.4% | −14.2% | −1.8% |
| 15 Aug 2023Lasted 32 days | Bear | 0.000006726 BTC | −1.2% | −4.2% | +7.1% | −1.4% |
| 11 Jul 2023Lasted 35 days | Bull | 0.000006401 BTC | +4.4% | +20.8% | +2.6% | +5.1% |
| 30 Apr 2023Lasted 72 days | Bear | 0.000008035 BTC | +0.5% | −5.7% | −12.4% | −20.3% |
| 20 Apr 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000008929 BTC | −9.8% | −11.2% | −24.4% | −10.0% |
| 9 Apr 2023Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.000008728 BTC | −1.7% | −8.7% | −30.9% | +2.3% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 9 Apr 2023, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
60 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.