Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Holo's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 60 of 60 | −3.2% | −4.3% to −1.4% (91%) | −4.3% to −0.1% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 59 of 60 | −8.6% | −11.1% to −6.3% (93%) | −11.6% to −2.0% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 59 of 60 | −12.1% | −19.5% to −4.9% (93%) | −23.5% to −6.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 60 of 60 | −2.4% | −4.2% to −1.7% (91%) | −4.3% to −0.1% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 60 of 60 | −5.2% | −8.9% to −1.6% (91%) | −11.8% to −2.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 59 of 60 | −13.6% | −23.0% to −6.0% (93%) | −23.5% to −6.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 2 Apr 2019, for comparison | 7 | 2,735 days | −2.4% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 2,712 days | −7.3% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 2,652 days | −14.5% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest two flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 60 | 6 of 60 |
| After bearish flips | 60 | 2 of 60 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Holo's daily line has flipped 16.0 times a year since 2 Apr 2019.
Holo, daily flips: 120 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Sep 2026Lasted 24 days so far | Bull | 0.000000004968 BTC | −3.6% | not yet | not yet | +7.6% so far |
| 13 Aug 2026Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.000000005040 BTC | −4.1% | −0.4% | not yet | −1.4% |
| 5 Jul 2026Lasted 39 days | Bull | 0.000000005766 BTC | +2.8% | −8.6% | −7.3% | −12.6% |
| 30 Jun 2026Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.000000004964 BTC | +6.8% | +7.6% | +7.4% | +16.2% |
| 24 Jun 2026Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000000005059 BTC | +0.1% | +3.5% | +2.3% | −1.9% |
| 5 Jun 2026Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.000000004979 BTC | −2.4% | +15.8% | −7.3% | +1.6% |
| 2 Jun 2026Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.000000005288 BTC | −6.9% | −7.2% | −9.0% | −5.8% |
| 3 May 2026Lasted 30 days | Bear | 0.000000005371 BTC | +3.5% | −1.6% | −1.3% | −1.6% |
| 16 Apr 2026Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000000005735 BTC | −3.3% | −9.9% | −3.3% | −6.3% |
| 29 Mar 2026Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.000000005954 BTC | −2.2% | −2.5% | −4.6% | −3.7% |
| 18 Mar 2026Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000000006442 BTC | −3.2% | −11.6% | −24.1% | −7.6% |
| 28 Feb 2026Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.000000005898 BTC | −1.7% | +2.3% | −15.1% | +9.2% |
| 4 Feb 2026Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.000000005631 BTC | −2.3% | +3.0% | −5.8% | +4.7% |
| 14 Jan 2026Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.000000005508 BTC | −1.6% | +0.2% | −2.3% | +2.2% |
| 2 Jan 2026Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.000000005778 BTC | +2.0% | −8.0% | +4.5% | −4.7% |
| 28 Nov 2025Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.000000005996 BTC | −5.7% | −8.0% | +17.9% | −3.6% |
| 7 Nov 2025Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.000000007113 BTC | −13.8% | −21.8% | −19.5% | −15.7% |
| 14 Aug 2025Lasted 85 days | Bear | 0.000000007929 BTC | +7.5% | +10.9% | −23.5% | −10.3% |
| 9 Aug 2025Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.000000009024 BTC | −5.6% | −5.4% | −21.2% | −12.1% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.000000009136 BTC | −5.7% | −3.0% | −34.6% | −1.2% |
| 15 Jul 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.000000008670 BTC | +13.9% | −8.5% | −26.2% | +5.4% |
| 16 May 2025Lasted 60 days | Bear | 0.00000001113 BTC | −5.8% | −24.5% | −28.8% | −22.1% |
| 9 May 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00000001113 BTC | 0.0% | −18.7% | −23.4% | 0.0% |
| 29 Apr 2025Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00000001109 BTC | −13.0% | −7.3% | −21.9% | +0.4% |
| 26 Apr 2025Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.00000001189 BTC | −14.5% | −14.3% | −23.6% | −6.7% |
| 19 Jan 2025Lasted 97 days | Bear | 0.00000002230 BTC | −6.9% | −27.8% | −49.5% | −46.7% |
| 17 Jan 2025Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.00000002622 BTC | −20.5% | −35.8% | −59.0% | −14.9% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 39 days | Bear | 0.00000003116 BTC | −7.9% | −25.7% | −56.9% | −15.8% |
| 24 Nov 2024Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.00000002870 BTC | +18.9% | −8.2% | −42.4% | +8.6% |
| 13 Nov 2024Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.00000002216 BTC | −4.6% | +47.7% | −21.0% | +29.5% |
| 10 Nov 2024Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.00000002485 BTC | −9.5% | +25.2% | −33.2% | −10.8% |
| 25 Oct 2024Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.00000002346 BTC | −0.3% | +22.3% | −6.0% | +5.9% |
| 20 Oct 2024Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00000002828 BTC | −15.4% | −20.3% | −16.1% | −17.0% |
| 1 Oct 2024Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.00000002590 BTC | −4.2% | −11.8% | −1.2% | +9.2% |
| 24 Sep 2024Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00000002922 BTC | −11.4% | −12.8% | −9.7% | −11.4% |
| 15 Sep 2024Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.00000002647 BTC | +1.4% | −8.6% | +15.1% | +10.4% |
| 10 Sep 2024Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00000002965 BTC | −10.5% | −14.6% | +5.1% | −10.7% |
| 31 Aug 2024Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00000002703 BTC | +0.8% | +2.1% | +13.8% | +9.7% |
| 20 Aug 2024Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00000002454 BTC | +17.8% | +10.2% | −2.4% | +10.2% |
| 22 Jul 2024Lasted 29 days | Bear | 0.00000002679 BTC | −6.3% | −4.2% | +5.6% | −8.4% |
| 12 Jul 2024Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00000002909 BTC | −4.1% | −21.8% | −13.0% | −7.9% |
| 7 Jun 2024Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.00000003478 BTC | −11.9% | −22.9% | −22.7% | −16.4% |
| 22 May 2024Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00000003600 BTC | +2.9% | −20.8% | −31.8% | −3.4% |
| 17 Mar 2024Lasted 66 days | Bear | 0.00000005267 BTC | −3.2% | −33.3% | −42.2% | −31.6% |
| 18 Feb 2024Lasted 28 days | Bull | 0.00000004302 BTC | +7.6% | +13.6% | −21.6% | +22.4% |
| 3 Jan 2024Lasted 46 days | Bear | 0.00000005254 BTC | −12.4% | −17.1% | −13.6% | −18.1% |
| 3 Dec 2023Lasted 31 days | Bull | 0.00000004371 BTC | +13.1% | +24.9% | +54.2% | +20.2% |
| 21 Nov 2023Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.00000003911 BTC | +6.5% | +28.5% | +19.8% | +11.7% |
| 6 Nov 2023Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.00000004503 BTC | −4.3% | +1.7% | −4.5% | −13.1% |
| 22 Oct 2023Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.00000004098 BTC | −5.0% | −4.5% | +11.6% | +9.9% |
| 11 Oct 2023Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00000003766 BTC | +21.2% | +19.7% | +15.0% | +8.8% |
| 14 Sep 2023Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.00000003955 BTC | +0.5% | +4.7% | +28.8% | −4.8% |
| 9 Sep 2023Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00000004197 BTC | −3.2% | −14.3% | +14.0% | −5.8% |
| 30 Aug 2023Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00000003985 BTC | +2.4% | −3.3% | +4.6% | +5.3% |
| 19 Aug 2023Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00000004264 BTC | −2.8% | −9.4% | +1.3% | −6.5% |
| 15 Aug 2023Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.00000004171 BTC | +0.1% | −5.2% | +3.4% | +2.2% |
| 6 Aug 2023Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00000004442 BTC | −2.1% | −8.7% | −4.5% | −6.1% |
| 21 Apr 2023Lasted 107 days | Bear | 0.00000006676 BTC | −2.8% | −8.9% | −33.8% | −33.5% |
| 30 Mar 2023Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.00000007264 BTC | −4.4% | −10.8% | −40.1% | −8.1% |
| 25 Feb 2023Lasted 33 days | Bear | 0.00000008870 BTC | −7.4% | −28.6% | −32.4% | −18.1% |
| 27 Jan 2023Lasted 29 days | Bull | 0.00000009617 BTC | −2.5% | −8.0% | −31.9% | −7.8% |
| 21 Jan 2023Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00000008708 BTC | +8.2% | +8.4% | −23.3% | +10.4% |
| 10 Jan 2023Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00000009277 BTC | +0.7% | −0.3% | −27.0% | −6.1% |
| 16 Dec 2022Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.00000009175 BTC | −4.3% | −1.1% | −24.4% | +1.1% |
| 22 Nov 2022Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.00000009928 BTC | −1.4% | −11.1% | −4.9% | −7.6% |
| 31 Oct 2022Lasted 22 days | Bear | 0.00000009892 BTC | +1.8% | −1.6% | −6.2% | +0.4% |
| 29 Oct 2022Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.0000001094 BTC | −8.3% | −10.4% | −12.1% | −9.6% |
| 19 Oct 2022Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.0000001001 BTC | −6.1% | −6.4% | −6.7% | +9.3% |
| 10 Oct 2022Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.0000001080 BTC | −4.8% | −13.0% | −17.8% | −7.3% |
| 4 Oct 2022Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00000009972 BTC | +4.2% | +1.3% | −13.0% | +8.3% |
| 21 Sep 2022Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.0000001069 BTC | −2.4% | −6.3% | −17.4% | −6.7% |
| 18 Aug 2022Lasted 34 days | Bear | 0.0000001010 BTC | +2.3% | +5.3% | −8.2% | +5.8% |
| 1 Aug 2022Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.0000001012 BTC | +10.2% | +2.3% | −1.1% | −0.2% |
| 8 Jul 2022Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.00000009794 BTC | −2.1% | +16.0% | +2.9% | +3.3% |
| 13 Jun 2022Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.00000008987 BTC | +12.6% | +7.5% | +9.7% | +9.0% |
| 10 Jun 2022Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.00000007971 BTC | +25.9% | +23.6% | +31.3% | +12.7% |
| 31 May 2022Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00000009317 BTC | −12.1% | +13.3% | +13.0% | −14.4% |
| 11 May 2022Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.00000009105 BTC | −4.7% | −12.5% | +17.3% | +2.3% |
| 10 May 2022Lasted 1 day | Bull | 0.0000001148 BTC | −22.7% | −28.5% | −2.9% | −20.7% |
| 11 Apr 2022Lasted 29 days | Bear | 0.0000001185 BTC | +3.2% | −23.2% | −16.9% | −3.1% |
| 19 Mar 2022Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.0000001114 BTC | +4.2% | +9.8% | −9.9% | +6.4% |
| 12 Feb 2022Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.0000001163 BTC | +3.8% | −15.1% | −20.3% | −4.2% |
| 7 Feb 2022Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.0000001293 BTC | −12.6% | −22.5% | −14.2% | −10.0% |
| 1 Dec 2021Lasted 68 days | Bear | 0.0000002061 BTC | −5.0% | −23.4% | −48.9% | −37.3% |
| 26 Oct 2021Lasted 36 days | Bull | 0.0000001902 BTC | +15.6% | +23.7% | −35.2% | +8.3% |
| 7 Sep 2021Lasted 49 days | Bear | 0.0000002144 BTC | −2.3% | −18.1% | −10.8% | −11.3% |
| 2 Sep 2021Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.0000002637 BTC | −16.6% | −31.5% | −21.8% | −18.7% |
| 26 Aug 2021Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.0000002124 BTC | +24.1% | −12.2% | +9.8% | +24.1% |
| 6 Aug 2021Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.0000001833 BTC | +38.5% | +37.9% | +32.2% | +15.9% |
| 19 Jun 2021Lasted 48 days | Bear | 0.0000001976 BTC | −11.5% | −21.3% | +1.7% | −7.2% |
| 25 May 2021Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.0000002434 BTC | −4.3% | −27.8% | −7.2% | −18.8% |
| 10 Apr 2021Lasted 45 days | Bear | 0.0000003201 BTC | −1.8% | −29.1% | −46.4% | −24.0% |
| 29 Jan 2021Lasted 71 days | Bull | 0.00000002356 BTC | −9.1% | +128.1% | +1,118.4% | +1,258.6% |
| 14 Jan 2021Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.00000001979 BTC | −1.3% | +49.3% | +1,310.1% | +19.1% |
| 9 Jan 2021Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00000002511 BTC | −20.8% | −3.1% | +1,334.4% | −21.2% |
| 8 Jan 2021Lasted 1 day | Bear | 0.00000002008 BTC | −2.3% | +2.7% | +1,881.8% | +25.1% |
| 2 Jan 2021Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00000002496 BTC | +0.6% | −9.7% | +1,548.4% | −19.6% |
| 12 Dec 2020Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.00000002870 BTC | −10.6% | −12.7% | +80.4% | −13.0% |
| 22 Nov 2020Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.00000003022 BTC | +4.3% | −11.7% | +35.0% | −5.0% |
| 21 Aug 2020Lasted 93 days | Bear | 0.00000006728 BTC | −5.7% | −28.5% | −58.7% | −55.1% |
| 16 Aug 2020Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00000007615 BTC | −12.7% | −33.6% | −60.6% | −11.6% |
| 27 Jul 2020Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.00000006516 BTC | +5.3% | −1.5% | −42.5% | +16.9% |
| 5 Jul 2020Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.00000006153 BTC | +22.3% | +13.1% | −28.7% | +5.9% |
| 30 Jun 2020Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.00000005773 BTC | +4.0% | +18.8% | −23.1% | +6.6% |
| 2 May 2020Lasted 59 days | Bull | 0.00000004928 BTC | +10.3% | +24.9% | +36.3% | +17.2% |
| 20 Feb 2020Lasted 72 days | Bear | 0.00000007539 BTC | −3.3% | −30.6% | −27.4% | −34.6% |
| 4 Feb 2020Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00000007557 BTC | −0.2% | −4.8% | −15.0% | −0.2% |
| 7 Jan 2020Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.00000008367 BTC | −4.3% | −9.5% | −42.5% | −9.7% |
| 3 Jan 2020Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.00000009250 BTC | −9.5% | −22.2% | −47.5% | −9.5% |
| 30 Nov 2019Lasted 34 days | Bear | 0.0000001045 BTC | −8.1% | −15.7% | −30.2% | −11.5% |
| 11 Nov 2019Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.0000001101 BTC | −2.1% | −16.4% | −28.4% | −5.1% |
| 26 Oct 2019Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.0000001004 BTC | −2.6% | +10.9% | −25.1% | +9.7% |
| 10 Sep 2019Lasted 46 days | Bull | 0.00000008519 BTC | −3.7% | +10.9% | +11.9% | +17.8% |
| 11 Jul 2019Lasted 61 days | Bear | 0.0000001251 BTC | −4.9% | −33.2% | −23.0% | −31.9% |
| 30 Jun 2019Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.0000001797 BTC | −16.6% | −35.6% | −55.2% | −30.4% |
| 14 Jun 2019Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.0000002032 BTC | −19.6% | −35.6% | −61.4% | −11.6% |
| 17 May 2019Lasted 28 days | Bull | 0.0000002052 BTC | +20.8% | −6.7% | −60.0% | −1.0% |
| 23 Apr 2019Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.0000002416 BTC | +0.5% | +8.3% | −51.0% | −15.0% |
| 17 Apr 2019Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0000002842 BTC | −17.0% | −27.8% | −57.5% | −15.0% |
| 2 Apr 2019Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.0000002563 BTC | −2.4% | −7.8% | −32.9% | +10.9% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 2 Apr 2019, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
120 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.