Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Immutable's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 35 of 35 | −3.1% | −8.0% to +1.7% (91%) | −5.7% to +1.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 35 of 35 | −11.0% | −16.4% to −1.4% (91%) | −15.5% to +0.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 34 of 35 | −19.9% | −30.1% to −4.9% (94%) | −32.2% to −11.4% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 34 of 34 | −3.9% | −6.3% to −0.2% (94%) | −6.0% to +1.5% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 34 of 34 | −10.0% | −14.3% to −0.1% (94%) | −16.1% to +0.1% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 33 of 34 | −17.4% | −23.7% to −3.1% (92%) | −31.2% to −10.1% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 26 Jan 2022, for comparison | 7 | 1,705 days | −2.2% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 1,682 days | −8.0% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,622 days | −21.6% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest two flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 35 | 1 of 35 |
| After bearish flips | 34 | 0 of 34 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Immutable's daily line has flipped 14.7 times a year since 26 Jan 2022.
Immutable, daily flips: 69 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2026Lasted 41 days so far | Bull | 0.000001734 BTC | −9.0% | +3.3% | not yet | +25.1% so far |
| 15 Jul 2026Lasted 39 days | Bear | 0.000002008 BTC | −3.3% | −14.0% | not yet | −13.6% |
| 4 Jul 2026Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000002174 BTC | −4.8% | −19.9% | −3.0% | −7.7% |
| 5 Jun 2026Lasted 29 days | Bear | 0.000002121 BTC | +5.0% | +2.7% | −27.1% | +2.5% |
| 3 Jun 2026Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.000002381 BTC | −8.0% | −12.2% | −32.2% | −10.9% |
| 17 May 2026Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.000002222 BTC | −3.9% | −0.1% | −22.5% | +7.1% |
| 15 Apr 2026Lasted 32 days | Bull | 0.000002149 BTC | +6.5% | +9.0% | −4.9% | +3.4% |
| 25 Mar 2026Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.000002136 BTC | −4.0% | +5.1% | +3.4% | +0.6% |
| 16 Mar 2026Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.000002468 BTC | −7.9% | −12.9% | −9.6% | −13.4% |
| 4 Mar 2026Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.000002196 BTC | +8.7% | −8.9% | +1.8% | +12.4% |
| 14 Feb 2026Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.000002502 BTC | −2.0% | −1.4% | −6.3% | −12.2% |
| 20 Jan 2026Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.000002714 BTC | −2.6% | −13.0% | −18.7% | −7.8% |
| 1 Jan 2026Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.000002882 BTC | +4.4% | −19.0% | −28.8% | −5.8% |
| 22 Sep 2025Lasted 101 days | Bear | 0.000006072 BTC | +6.3% | −23.8% | −58.4% | −52.5% |
| 9 Aug 2025Lasted 44 days | Bull | 0.000005135 BTC | −3.1% | −5.6% | −17.1% | +18.3% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.000004808 BTC | −3.3% | +8.8% | −2.2% | +6.8% |
| 29 Jun 2025Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.000004328 BTC | −10.3% | +10.3% | +66.5% | +11.1% |
| 26 May 2025Lasted 34 days | Bear | 0.000005784 BTC | −7.2% | −33.0% | −11.5% | −25.2% |
| 10 May 2025Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.000007404 BTC | −16.7% | −34.2% | −36.1% | −21.9% |
| 6 May 2025Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000005463 BTC | +30.1% | −10.4% | −17.4% | +35.5% |
| 19 Apr 2025Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000005642 BTC | +16.7% | +8.3% | −12.8% | −3.2% |
| 30 Mar 2025Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.000006469 BTC | −24.5% | −6.2% | −37.9% | −12.8% |
| 25 Mar 2025Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.000008113 BTC | −23.9% | −20.5% | −51.2% | −20.3% |
| 4 Mar 2025Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.000007035 BTC | −11.0% | −19.2% | −23.7% | +15.3% |
| 26 Feb 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000008392 BTC | −13.6% | −17.9% | −30.1% | −16.2% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 79 days | Bear | 0.00001780 BTC | −4.5% | −25.0% | −64.2% | −52.9% |
| 24 Nov 2024Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.00001806 BTC | +15.1% | −17.1% | −58.5% | −1.4% |
| 24 Oct 2024Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.00002150 BTC | −20.5% | −24.1% | −46.8% | −16.0% |
| 14 Oct 2024Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00002529 BTC | −9.6% | −45.7% | −49.0% | −15.0% |
| 5 Oct 2024Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.00002443 BTC | +1.0% | −36.9% | −38.6% | +3.5% |
| 19 Sep 2024Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00002385 BTC | +14.3% | −3.4% | −34.4% | +2.4% |
| 2 Sep 2024Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.00002144 BTC | +3.0% | +19.9% | −3.1% | +11.2% |
| 22 Aug 2024Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00002155 BTC | +14.0% | +21.2% | −37.2% | −0.5% |
| 28 Jul 2024Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.00002107 BTC | −10.2% | +7.6% | −5.1% | +2.3% |
| 17 Jul 2024Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00002463 BTC | −8.0% | −22.8% | −3.9% | −14.5% |
| 30 May 2024Lasted 48 days | Bear | 0.00003172 BTC | −0.2% | −24.6% | −23.0% | −22.3% |
| 22 Apr 2024Lasted 38 days | Bull | 0.00003566 BTC | −7.8% | +2.1% | −31.2% | −11.1% |
| 28 Feb 2024Lasted 54 days | Bear | 0.00005345 BTC | −10.9% | −16.9% | −37.2% | −33.3% |
| 12 Jan 2024Lasted 47 days | Bull | 0.00005084 BTC | −8.5% | +11.7% | −28.0% | +5.1% |
| 3 Jan 2024Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.00004895 BTC | −6.3% | +3.0% | −17.0% | +3.9% |
| 9 Dec 2023Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.00004408 BTC | +12.6% | −2.4% | +12.3% | +11.0% |
| 5 Dec 2023Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.00003219 BTC | +48.7% | +54.9% | +42.6% | +36.9% |
| 29 Oct 2023Lasted 37 days | Bull | 0.00001959 BTC | +35.9% | +81.5% | +135.1% | +64.4% |
| 27 Sep 2023Lasted 32 days | Bear | 0.00002149 BTC | −4.6% | −12.6% | +158.8% | −8.9% |
| 20 Sep 2023Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00002036 BTC | +5.5% | −11.2% | +139.9% | +5.5% |
| 8 Aug 2023Lasted 43 days | Bear | 0.00002459 BTC | −8.3% | −14.3% | +6.2% | −17.2% |
| 13 Jul 2023Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.00002438 BTC | +1.7% | −1.5% | −19.9% | +0.8% |
| 7 Jun 2023Lasted 36 days | Bear | 0.00002589 BTC | −11.0% | −10.0% | −17.6% | −5.8% |
| 2 Jun 2023Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00002951 BTC | −7.0% | −16.4% | −26.8% | −12.3% |
| 22 Mar 2023Lasted 72 days | Bear | 0.00004315 BTC | −8.1% | −20.8% | −46.0% | −31.6% |
| 17 Mar 2023Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00005585 BTC | −28.3% | −28.5% | −56.9% | −22.7% |
| 11 Mar 2023Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00003979 BTC | +39.2% | −7.8% | −31.0% | +40.3% |
| 8 Jan 2023Lasted 62 days | Bull | 0.00002633 BTC | +7.2% | +72.2% | +39.7% | +51.1% |
| 8 Dec 2022Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.00002589 BTC | +1.7% | −4.0% | +71.2% | +1.7% |
| 4 Dec 2022Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.00002946 BTC | −14.6% | −19.6% | +51.1% | −12.1% |
| 9 Nov 2022Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.00002531 BTC | −2.5% | +1.0% | +79.2% | +16.4% |
| 28 Oct 2022Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00003127 BTC | +0.4% | −14.0% | −5.9% | −19.1% |
| 15 Aug 2022Lasted 74 days | Bear | 0.00004316 BTC | −7.8% | −5.6% | −40.7% | −27.5% |
| 29 Jul 2022Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.00004459 BTC | +14.2% | −11.0% | −34.7% | −3.2% |
| 12 Jul 2022Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.00004273 BTC | +3.8% | +10.1% | −15.6% | +4.3% |
| 15 Jun 2022Lasted 27 days | Bull | 0.00003476 BTC | +10.3% | +24.9% | +14.9% | +22.9% |
| 11 Jun 2022Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.00002793 BTC | +34.5% | +53.9% | +47.7% | +24.4% |
| 30 May 2022Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00003636 BTC | −9.0% | +29.4% | +9.1% | −23.2% |
| 11 May 2022Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.00002948 BTC | −5.4% | +3.8% | +62.2% | +23.4% |
| 4 May 2022Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00004586 BTC | −35.7% | −28.9% | −0.7% | −35.7% |
| 11 Apr 2022Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.00004392 BTC | −2.3% | −32.9% | −0.3% | +4.4% |
| 7 Mar 2022Lasted 35 days | Bull | 0.00004170 BTC | −0.1% | +12.9% | −21.9% | +5.3% |
| 6 Feb 2022Lasted 29 days | Bear | 0.00006670 BTC | −18.3% | −41.1% | −39.8% | −37.5% |
| 26 Jan 2022Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00008139 BTC | +1.5% | −51.9% | −46.3% | −18.0% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 26 Jan 2022, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
69 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.