Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Internet Computer's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 40 of 40 | −3.4% | −6.2% to +2.1% (92%) | −5.4% to +0.5% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 38 of 40 | −3.7% | −6.5% to −0.1% (93%) | −12.8% to −0.6% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 37 of 40 | −18.8% | −27.0% to −8.6% (90%) | −25.4% to −9.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 40 of 40 | −2.4% | −5.4% to −0.6% (92%) | −5.4% to +0.5% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 39 of 40 | −7.1% | −14.2% to +1.7% (95%) | −12.2% to −0.4% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 38 of 40 | −18.0% | −26.0% to −12.4% (93%) | −25.8% to −10.6% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 7 Sep 2021, for comparison | 7 | 1,846 days | −2.1% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 1,823 days | −6.0% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,763 days | −19.1% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest five flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are daily closes of the native ICP/BTC market on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 40 | 1 of 40 |
| After bearish flips | 40 | 0 of 40 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Internet Computer's daily line has flipped 15.8 times a year since 7 Sep 2021.
Internet Computer, daily flips: 80 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026Lasted 8 days so far | Bull | 0.00003800 BTC | +2.1% | not yet | not yet | +3.9% so far |
| 15 Sep 2026Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00003280 BTC | +6.4% | not yet | not yet | +15.9% |
| 5 Sep 2026Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00003350 BTC | +5.7% | not yet | not yet | −2.1% |
| 19 Aug 2026Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.00003330 BTC | −8.7% | +6.3% | not yet | +0.6% |
| 8 Aug 2026Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00003390 BTC | +4.4% | +11.5% | not yet | −1.8% |
| 5 Jun 2026Lasted 64 days | Bear | 0.00003770 BTC | −4.8% | −8.0% | −18.0% | −10.1% |
| 27 May 2026Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00003810 BTC | +27.3% | −3.7% | −20.5% | −1.0% |
| 11 May 2026Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.00004070 BTC | −17.2% | −11.5% | −17.7% | −6.4% |
| 5 May 2026Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00003280 BTC | +20.7% | +30.5% | +1.5% | +24.1% |
| 22 Apr 2026Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00003190 BTC | −1.6% | +2.8% | +4.7% | +2.8% |
| 16 Apr 2026Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00003550 BTC | −10.4% | −6.5% | −5.4% | −10.1% |
| 24 Mar 2026Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.00003390 BTC | 0.0% | −6.2% | +3.2% | +4.7% |
| 25 Feb 2026Lasted 27 days | Bull | 0.00003570 BTC | −3.1% | −5.9% | −2.2% | −5.0% |
| 23 Jan 2026Lasted 33 days | Bear | 0.00003890 BTC | −8.2% | −18.3% | −18.3% | −8.2% |
| 4 Jan 2026Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.00003570 BTC | −3.4% | −2.2% | −4.5% | +9.0% |
| 30 Dec 2025Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.00003200 BTC | +12.8% | +14.4% | +5.0% | +11.6% |
| 20 Dec 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00003900 BTC | −10.3% | +7.2% | −9.0% | −17.9% |
| 10 Nov 2025Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.00006410 BTC | −6.7% | −41.3% | −46.0% | −39.2% |
| 13 Oct 2025Lasted 28 days | Bull | 0.00003230 BTC | −10.5% | +94.1% | +6.8% | +98.5% |
| 1 Sep 2025Lasted 42 days | Bear | 0.00004300 BTC | +1.6% | −11.9% | −1.4% | −24.9% |
| 9 Aug 2025Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.00004900 BTC | −5.3% | −10.8% | +63.3% | −12.2% |
| 24 Jul 2025Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.00004640 BTC | −2.4% | +1.7% | −40.5% | +5.6% |
| 15 Jul 2025Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00004770 BTC | +7.1% | −3.4% | −32.3% | −2.7% |
| 16 Jun 2025Lasted 29 days | Bear | 0.00005050 BTC | −6.5% | −6.3% | −16.6% | −5.5% |
| 8 Jun 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00005260 BTC | −0.6% | −15.6% | −17.9% | −4.0% |
| 16 May 2025Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.00005090 BTC | −4.3% | +2.8% | −9.4% | +3.3% |
| 9 May 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00005290 BTC | −3.8% | −0.6% | −14.0% | −3.8% |
| 4 Mar 2025Lasted 66 days | Bear | 0.00006900 BTC | −5.4% | −10.4% | −29.9% | −23.3% |
| 27 Feb 2025Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00007870 BTC | −12.6% | −17.7% | −35.8% | −12.3% |
| 9 Jan 2025Lasted 49 days | Bear | 0.0001094 BTC | −1.1% | −33.6% | −44.8% | −28.1% |
| 3 Jan 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0001264 BTC | −13.6% | −39.4% | −51.1% | −13.4% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.0001230 BTC | −2.8% | −7.1% | −45.5% | +2.8% |
| 22 Nov 2024Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.0001139 BTC | +8.5% | −8.7% | −36.3% | +8.0% |
| 2 Oct 2024Lasted 51 days | Bear | 0.0001318 BTC | −2.0% | −14.8% | −20.0% | −13.6% |
| 24 Sep 2024Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.0001462 BTC | −6.6% | −16.8% | −22.4% | −9.8% |
| 16 Sep 2024Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.0001379 BTC | −0.2% | −15.4% | −8.4% | +6.0% |
| 10 Sep 2024Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0001550 BTC | −15.3% | −14.3% | −20.6% | −11.0% |
| 3 Sep 2024Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.0001246 BTC | +24.4% | +6.0% | +15.4% | +24.4% |
| 22 Aug 2024Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.0001330 BTC | −1.4% | +1.4% | −29.5% | −6.3% |
| 29 Jul 2024Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.0001336 BTC | −1.9% | −1.6% | −14.1% | −0.4% |
| 6 Jul 2024Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.0001297 BTC | +9.8% | +1.1% | +3.9% | +3.0% |
| 5 May 2024Lasted 62 days | Bear | 0.0002032 BTC | −5.9% | −14.2% | −37.0% | −36.2% |
| 20 Apr 2024Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.0002390 BTC | −12.3% | −20.5% | −36.4% | −15.0% |
| 9 Apr 2024Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.0002323 BTC | −17.3% | −16.9% | −48.3% | +2.9% |
| 22 Mar 2024Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.0002095 BTC | +17.5% | +10.9% | −39.2% | +10.9% |
| 16 Feb 2024Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.0002520 BTC | −3.3% | −27.1% | −26.0% | −16.9% |
| 30 Dec 2023Lasted 48 days | Bull | 0.0002908 BTC | −6.2% | −0.4% | −15.4% | −13.3% |
| 20 Dec 2023Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.0002022 BTC | +4.9% | +32.9% | −12.5% | +43.8% |
| 12 Dec 2023Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.0001335 BTC | +64.3% | +111.5% | +56.0% | +51.5% |
| 6 Dec 2023Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.0001115 BTC | +30.9% | +170.0% | +97.9% | +19.7% |
| 29 Oct 2023Lasted 38 days | Bull | 0.0001168 BTC | −0.8% | +3.9% | +159.0% | −4.5% |
| 17 Oct 2023Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.0001079 BTC | −1.5% | +12.2% | +181.0% | +8.2% |
| 14 Oct 2023Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.0001157 BTC | −6.7% | +6.8% | +147.1% | −6.7% |
| 6 Oct 2023Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.0001098 BTC | +3.7% | +5.6% | +186.1% | +5.4% |
| 29 Sep 2023Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.0001169 BTC | −6.1% | −0.1% | +96.1% | −6.1% |
| 10 Aug 2023Lasted 50 days | Bear | 0.0001367 BTC | −6.5% | −7.7% | −12.4% | −14.5% |
| 28 Jul 2023Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.0001473 BTC | −5.8% | −9.3% | −29.6% | −7.2% |
| 9 May 2023Lasted 80 days | Bear | 0.0001915 BTC | +0.9% | −17.8% | −26.7% | −23.1% |
| 29 Apr 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0002220 BTC | −12.7% | −20.9% | −33.6% | −13.7% |
| 23 Apr 2023Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.0001967 BTC | +11.3% | −5.8% | −29.6% | +12.9% |
| 15 Apr 2023Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.0001939 BTC | +4.2% | −0.6% | −27.6% | +1.4% |
| 27 Feb 2023Lasted 47 days | Bear | 0.0002607 BTC | −9.0% | −30.3% | −31.7% | −25.6% |
| 29 Dec 2022Lasted 60 days | Bull | 0.0002418 BTC | −6.3% | +9.3% | −24.9% | +7.8% |
| 13 Dec 2022Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.0002338 BTC | −6.0% | +2.2% | −4.9% | +3.4% |
| 5 Dec 2022Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.0002613 BTC | −7.4% | −10.4% | −8.6% | −10.5% |
| 10 Oct 2022Lasted 56 days | Bear | 0.0002776 BTC | −6.5% | −16.4% | −13.6% | −5.9% |
| 29 Aug 2022Lasted 42 days | Bull | 0.0003288 BTC | +3.6% | −5.3% | −27.9% | −15.6% |
| 18 Aug 2022Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.0002962 BTC | −0.6% | +5.7% | −21.5% | +11.0% |
| 29 Jul 2022Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.0003390 BTC | +6.2% | −5.3% | −27.0% | −12.6% |
| 20 Jul 2022Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.0002900 BTC | +7.2% | +6.1% | −11.7% | +16.9% |
| 15 Jun 2022Lasted 35 days | Bull | 0.0002660 BTC | +2.6% | +22.6% | +19.4% | +9.0% |
| 7 Jun 2022Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.0002200 BTC | +14.5% | +31.4% | +54.8% | +20.9% |
| 13 May 2022Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.0003170 BTC | −15.8% | −33.4% | +7.6% | −30.6% |
| 10 Apr 2022Lasted 33 days | Bear | 0.0004120 BTC | +0.5% | −17.2% | −21.4% | −23.1% |
| 23 Mar 2022Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.0004430 BTC | +5.0% | −5.6% | −36.6% | −7.0% |
| 18 Jan 2022Lasted 64 days | Bear | 0.0006940 BTC | −21.9% | −29.4% | −40.1% | −36.2% |
| 24 Dec 2021Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.0005430 BTC | −2.6% | +7.9% | −18.8% | +27.8% |
| 4 Dec 2021Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.0006450 BTC | −12.4% | −2.5% | −30.2% | −15.8% |
| 7 Nov 2021Lasted 27 days | Bull | 0.0008460 BTC | −12.9% | −31.1% | −36.4% | −23.8% |
| 7 Sep 2021Lasted 61 days | Bear | 0.001305 BTC | −7.6% | −27.4% | −54.1% | −35.2% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 7 Sep 2021, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
80 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.