Rule set flip-line-v1.1, append-only
Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
IOTA's daily trend in Bitcoin4 Jul 2018 to now
133flips
16 daystypical run
84 dayslongest run
BullishBearish
What happened after IOTA's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
90 days after a bullish flip−21.5%Median of 65 flips; 2 are too recent
90 days after a bearish flip−21.9%Median of 65 flips; 1 is too recent
90 days after any day−20.0%2,924 days since 4 Jul 2018
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 67 of 67 | −2.0% | −4.9% to +1.0% (91%) | −3.9% to +0.4% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 66 of 67 | −6.9% | −12.0% to −1.1% (94%) | −11.8% to −2.8% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 65 of 67 | −21.5% | −25.9% to −11.9% (92%) | −24.9% to −10.6% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 66 of 66 | −3.0% | −4.2% to −0.1% (94%) | −4.1% to +0.2% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 66 of 66 | −10.8% | −13.3% to −5.8% (94%) | −11.8% to −2.8% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 65 of 66 | −21.9% | −26.2% to −17.9% (92%) | −24.9% to −10.6% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 4 Jul 2018, for comparison | 7 | 3,007 days | −1.8% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 2,984 days | −7.3% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 2,924 days | −20.0% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest three flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 67 | 3 of 67 |
| After bearish flips | 66 | 4 of 66 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
IOTA's daily line has flipped 16.1 times a year since 4 Jul 2018.
IOTA, daily flips: 133 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Sep 2026Lasted 26 days so far | Bull | 0.0000005372 BTC | +4.0% | not yet | not yet | +19.5% so far |
| 27 Aug 2026Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.0000005259 BTC | −4.5% | +15.5% | not yet | +2.2% |
| 8 Aug 2026Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.0000005434 BTC | −4.9% | −1.1% | not yet | −3.2% |
| 4 Jun 2026Lasted 65 days | Bear | 0.0000007482 BTC | −2.5% | −16.8% | −32.1% | −27.4% |
| 28 May 2026Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.0000008137 BTC | −8.0% | −23.4% | −33.3% | −8.0% |
| 16 May 2026Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.0000007217 BTC | +4.7% | +3.6% | −27.3% | +12.7% |
| 8 May 2026Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.0000007706 BTC | −4.9% | −3.9% | −31.4% | −6.3% |
| 5 Apr 2026Lasted 33 days | Bear | 0.0000008575 BTC | −10.3% | −16.8% | −27.4% | −10.1% |
| 1 Apr 2026Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.0000008691 BTC | −5.8% | −19.7% | −30.7% | −1.3% |
| 4 Mar 2026Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.0000009413 BTC | −4.6% | +1.5% | −15.7% | −7.7% |
| 4 Feb 2026Lasted 28 days | Bull | 0.000001065 BTC | −9.4% | −10.6% | −33.0% | −11.6% |
| 12 Jan 2026Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.000001041 BTC | −11.3% | −7.3% | −26.1% | +2.3% |
| 2 Jan 2026Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000001052 BTC | +10.1% | −12.5% | −15.9% | −1.1% |
| 28 Nov 2025Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.000001252 BTC | −10.5% | −22.1% | −17.9% | −16.0% |
| 7 Nov 2025Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.000001385 BTC | −0.3% | −19.2% | −23.0% | −9.6% |
| 15 Sep 2025Lasted 53 days | Bear | 0.000001627 BTC | −6.4% | −19.6% | −34.1% | −14.9% |
| 22 Aug 2025Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.000001814 BTC | −2.3% | −12.0% | −25.1% | −10.3% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 30 days | Bear | 0.000001751 BTC | −3.2% | +3.6% | −24.8% | +3.6% |
| 11 Jul 2025Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.000001598 BTC | +21.4% | +8.3% | −7.5% | +9.6% |
| 17 May 2025Lasted 55 days | Bear | 0.000002082 BTC | −7.6% | −24.0% | −18.6% | −23.2% |
| 9 May 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.000002307 BTC | −6.8% | −25.7% | −26.4% | −9.8% |
| 6 May 2025Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.000002034 BTC | +18.9% | −17.5% | −19.0% | +13.4% |
| 23 Apr 2025Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.000002088 BTC | +5.0% | −6.9% | −7.1% | −2.6% |
| 8 Mar 2025Lasted 46 days | Bear | 0.000002279 BTC | −3.6% | −16.7% | −26.2% | −8.4% |
| 2 Mar 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000002800 BTC | −22.1% | −26.8% | −38.0% | −18.6% |
| 19 Jan 2025Lasted 42 days | Bear | 0.000003210 BTC | −5.6% | −29.1% | −39.2% | −12.8% |
| 3 Jan 2025Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.000003674 BTC | −7.5% | −33.6% | −46.6% | −12.6% |
| 14 Dec 2024Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.000003836 BTC | −22.6% | −12.5% | −43.6% | −4.2% |
| 16 Nov 2024Lasted 28 days | Bull | 0.000001895 BTC | +16.4% | +89.5% | +32.7% | +102.4% |
| 13 Nov 2024Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.000001550 BTC | +14.0% | +168.0% | +57.2% | +22.3% |
| 10 Nov 2024Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.000001674 BTC | +3.1% | +133.5% | +39.8% | −7.4% |
| 1 Oct 2024Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.000002018 BTC | −3.7% | −21.5% | +53.5% | −17.1% |
| 20 Sep 2024Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000002196 BTC | +3.2% | −17.5% | +39.7% | −8.1% |
| 14 Sep 2024Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.000002140 BTC | +6.2% | −7.7% | +94.1% | +2.6% |
| 9 Sep 2024Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.000002228 BTC | −7.3% | −12.7% | +109.6% | −3.9% |
| 7 Jul 2024Lasted 64 days | Bear | 0.000002589 BTC | +4.0% | −13.3% | −23.7% | −13.9% |
| 24 Jun 2024Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.000002931 BTC | −8.4% | −13.6% | −25.5% | −11.7% |
| 8 Jun 2024Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.000003002 BTC | −4.2% | −11.9% | −27.6% | −2.4% |
| 6 Jun 2024Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.000003352 BTC | −13.0% | −18.8% | −36.0% | −10.4% |
| 16 Mar 2024Lasted 82 days | Bear | 0.000004890 BTC | −1.6% | −28.6% | −41.8% | −31.5% |
| 2 Mar 2024Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.000005398 BTC | −6.9% | −13.2% | −40.3% | −9.4% |
| 11 Feb 2024Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.000005219 BTC | +0.7% | +5.4% | −33.7% | +3.4% |
| 25 Jan 2024Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000006098 BTC | −7.6% | −13.0% | −38.9% | −14.4% |
| 3 Jan 2024Lasted 22 days | Bear | 0.000006220 BTC | −9.5% | −5.8% | −26.7% | −2.0% |
| 30 Dec 2023Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.000007646 BTC | −26.4% | −22.1% | −33.4% | −18.6% |
| 19 Dec 2023Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.000006275 BTC | +3.4% | −10.8% | −26.7% | +21.8% |
| 29 Nov 2023Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.000006744 BTC | −1.5% | +5.5% | −24.7% | −7.0% |
| 21 Nov 2023Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.000004658 BTC | −2.0% | +38.8% | +17.3% | +44.8% |
| 5 Nov 2023Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.000004950 BTC | +9.5% | +45.4% | +16.5% | −5.9% |
| 12 Sep 2023Lasted 54 days | Bear | 0.000006200 BTC | −11.7% | −16.2% | +6.6% | −20.2% |
| 26 Aug 2023Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000005704 BTC | +13.3% | +0.3% | −16.1% | +8.7% |
| 25 Jul 2023Lasted 32 days | Bear | 0.000005967 BTC | −0.3% | −6.8% | −21.0% | −4.4% |
| 13 Jul 2023Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.000006184 BTC | −0.3% | −5.8% | −15.2% | −3.5% |
| 6 Jun 2023Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.000006849 BTC | −12.1% | −12.7% | −2.9% | −9.7% |
| 23 May 2023Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.000007010 BTC | +3.7% | −19.1% | −21.7% | −2.3% |
| 11 Apr 2023Lasted 42 days | Bear | 0.000007507 BTC | +0.2% | −12.8% | −21.9% | −6.6% |
| 5 Apr 2023Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000008158 BTC | −9.4% | −17.2% | −26.0% | −8.0% |
| 2 Mar 2023Lasted 34 days | Bear | 0.00001024 BTC | −8.4% | −23.3% | −28.4% | −20.4% |
| 27 Jan 2023Lasted 34 days | Bull | 0.00001062 BTC | −4.2% | +0.8% | −35.7% | −3.5% |
| 13 Jan 2023Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.00001014 BTC | −4.5% | +5.1% | −27.5% | +4.8% |
| 2 Jan 2023Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00001087 BTC | −0.2% | −9.6% | −29.6% | −6.8% |
| 30 Nov 2022Lasted 33 days | Bear | 0.00001259 BTC | −3.0% | −18.7% | −17.7% | −13.6% |
| 10 Nov 2022Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.00001336 BTC | −2.0% | −8.7% | −19.8% | −5.7% |
| 3 Oct 2022Lasted 38 days | Bear | 0.00001419 BTC | −4.2% | −12.9% | −27.2% | −5.9% |
| 23 Sep 2022Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00001473 BTC | +0.5% | −13.4% | −32.5% | −3.6% |
| 11 Sep 2022Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.00001339 BTC | −3.2% | +2.4% | −9.0% | +10.0% |
| 30 Aug 2022Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00001453 BTC | −5.0% | +2.6% | −11.9% | −7.8% |
| 17 Aug 2022Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00001370 BTC | +1.9% | −3.2% | −3.6% | +6.1% |
| 1 Aug 2022Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00001444 BTC | +1.0% | −3.0% | −12.6% | −5.1% |
| 20 Jul 2022Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.00001259 BTC | +3.2% | +7.8% | +2.6% | +14.7% |
| 10 Jul 2022Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00001424 BTC | −7.8% | −0.3% | −3.2% | −11.6% |
| 8 Jul 2022Lasted 2 days | Bear | 0.00001298 BTC | +0.1% | +14.1% | +3.4% | +9.8% |
| 14 Jun 2022Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.00001204 BTC | +15.9% | +8.4% | +8.1% | +7.7% |
| 11 Jun 2022Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.00001057 BTC | +25.3% | +26.3% | +29.4% | +14.0% |
| 17 May 2022Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.00001283 BTC | −10.7% | −2.5% | +11.5% | −17.6% |
| 6 Apr 2022Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.00001705 BTC | −2.9% | −19.6% | −21.1% | −24.7% |
| 26 Mar 2022Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00001867 BTC | +4.2% | −13.9% | −23.0% | −8.7% |
| 10 Feb 2022Lasted 44 days | Bear | 0.00002181 BTC | −7.0% | −17.3% | −53.2% | −14.4% |
| 3 Feb 2022Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00002487 BTC | −12.3% | −24.8% | −43.9% | −12.3% |
| 5 Jan 2022Lasted 29 days | Bear | 0.00002695 BTC | +0.4% | −14.6% | −32.9% | −7.7% |
| 21 Dec 2021Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.00002689 BTC | +11.8% | −7.0% | −32.5% | +0.2% |
| 12 Dec 2021Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.00002274 BTC | +0.2% | +17.4% | −20.7% | +18.2% |
| 17 Nov 2021Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.00002394 BTC | +9.5% | +0.7% | −15.7% | −5.0% |
| 10 Nov 2021Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.00001997 BTC | +19.9% | +17.7% | +12.2% | +19.9% |
| 31 Oct 2021Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00002414 BTC | −11.9% | +5.6% | −9.9% | −17.3% |
| 20 Sep 2021Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.00003027 BTC | −10.7% | −34.7% | −24.7% | −20.3% |
| 1 Sep 2021Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.00002322 BTC | +42.1% | +18.5% | +9.8% | +30.4% |
| 26 Aug 2021Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00002076 BTC | +51.2% | +39.0% | +26.2% | +11.8% |
| 11 Aug 2021Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.00002321 BTC | −3.6% | +47.7% | −9.2% | −10.5% |
| 19 May 2021Lasted 84 days | Bear | 0.00003078 BTC | +6.8% | −8.2% | −26.0% | −24.6% |
| 16 May 2021Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.00004305 BTC | −39.2% | −35.3% | −42.6% | −28.5% |
| 24 Apr 2021Lasted 22 days | Bear | 0.00003326 BTC | +9.7% | −16.6% | −38.8% | +29.4% |
| 6 Apr 2021Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.00003109 BTC | +10.0% | +26.5% | −21.5% | +7.0% |
| 27 Mar 2021Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00002505 BTC | +3.6% | +47.1% | −2.6% | +24.1% |
| 22 Mar 2021Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00002731 BTC | −4.0% | +40.5% | −1.2% | −8.3% |
| 13 Mar 2021Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.00002252 BTC | +7.8% | +48.4% | +23.6% | +21.3% |
| 5 Feb 2021Lasted 36 days | Bull | 0.00001352 BTC | +93.4% | +90.3% | +191.1% | +66.6% |
| 28 Jan 2021Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.00001210 BTC | −1.3% | +105.9% | +229.7% | +11.7% |
| 15 Jan 2021Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00001177 BTC | +17.5% | +108.2% | +193.5% | +2.8% |
| 7 Dec 2020Lasted 39 days | Bear | 0.00001662 BTC | −5.6% | −37.5% | +54.8% | −29.2% |
| 21 Nov 2020Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00001747 BTC | +9.8% | −23.3% | +52.3% | −4.8% |
| 20 Oct 2020Lasted 32 days | Bear | 0.00002212 BTC | −8.0% | −35.6% | −41.1% | −21.1% |
| 30 Sep 2020Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.00002629 BTC | −8.2% | −27.9% | −58.0% | −15.8% |
| 26 Aug 2020Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.00003111 BTC | −4.6% | −23.1% | −35.5% | −15.5% |
| 8 Aug 2020Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.00002809 BTC | +25.9% | −2.4% | −38.9% | +10.8% |
| 26 Jul 2020Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00002708 BTC | −3.8% | +18.1% | −18.9% | +3.8% |
| 30 Jun 2020Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.00002480 BTC | +6.6% | +9.0% | +1.3% | +9.2% |
| 15 Jun 2020Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.00002313 BTC | +3.7% | +15.3% | +17.6% | +7.2% |
| 12 May 2020Lasted 34 days | Bull | 0.00002110 BTC | −2.0% | +13.5% | +52.5% | +9.6% |
| 30 Apr 2020Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.00002048 BTC | −9.6% | +10.2% | +25.6% | +3.0% |
| 26 Apr 2020Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.00002293 BTC | −10.4% | −4.2% | +23.9% | −10.7% |
| 8 Feb 2020Lasted 78 days | Bear | 0.00003106 BTC | −6.3% | −22.1% | −33.4% | −26.2% |
| 11 Jan 2020Lasted 28 days | Bull | 0.00002392 BTC | +15.4% | +34.9% | −1.8% | +29.9% |
| 25 Oct 2019Lasted 78 days | Bear | 0.00003138 BTC | −5.8% | −7.1% | −10.2% | −23.8% |
| 17 Sep 2019Lasted 38 days | Bull | 0.00002569 BTC | +16.3% | +33.3% | −1.9% | +22.2% |
| 4 Sep 2019Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00002330 BTC | +0.8% | +42.2% | +19.7% | +10.3% |
| 22 Aug 2019Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00002585 BTC | +1.9% | +13.9% | +15.0% | −9.9% |
| 14 Jun 2019Lasted 69 days | Bear | 0.00004956 BTC | −15.8% | −39.6% | −54.3% | −47.8% |
| 15 May 2019Lasted 30 days | Bull | 0.00005383 BTC | −6.9% | −7.9% | −56.2% | −7.9% |
| 3 May 2019Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.00004989 BTC | −12.4% | +12.3% | −44.4% | +7.9% |
| 29 Apr 2019Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.00005868 BTC | −16.9% | +0.8% | −49.2% | −15.0% |
| 26 Mar 2019Lasted 34 days | Bear | 0.00007456 BTC | −3.3% | −32.2% | −44.5% | −21.3% |
| 14 Mar 2019Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00007660 BTC | +5.4% | −17.6% | −30.3% | −2.7% |
| 24 Feb 2019Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.00007429 BTC | +0.3% | +0.4% | −35.9% | +3.1% |
| 18 Feb 2019Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00007810 BTC | −4.9% | −5.5% | −33.7% | −4.9% |
| 10 Jan 2019Lasted 39 days | Bear | 0.00008461 BTC | −0.1% | −10.9% | −22.5% | −7.7% |
| 17 Dec 2018Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.00007213 BTC | +21.7% | +13.3% | +2.9% | +17.3% |
| 16 Nov 2018Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.00007314 BTC | −0.7% | −6.7% | +1.2% | −1.4% |
| 4 Nov 2018Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00007726 BTC | −2.7% | −9.4% | −3.5% | −5.3% |
| 19 Sep 2018Lasted 46 days | Bear | 0.00008293 BTC | +2.2% | −9.0% | −5.6% | −6.8% |
| 27 Aug 2018Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.00009650 BTC | −0.3% | −12.2% | −25.9% | −14.1% |
| 9 Jul 2018Lasted 49 days | Bear | 0.0001563 BTC | +4.1% | −37.4% | −44.4% | −38.3% |
| 4 Jul 2018Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.0001832 BTC | −14.2% | −29.2% | −53.0% | −14.7% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 4 Jul 2018, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
133 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.