Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after LayerZero's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 18 of 18 | −5.0% | −7.4% to +0.8% (90%) | −8.7% to +4.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 17 of 18 | −7.4% | −15.9% to +6.2% (95%) | −17.2% to +8.2% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 13 of 18 | −21.8% | −33.9% to −5.8% (91%) | −35.7% to −3.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 18 of 18 | −2.2% | −4.9% to +6.6% (90%) | −8.7% to +4.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 17 of 18 | +2.2% | −19.0% to +10.9% (95%) | −17.2% to +8.2% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 14 of 18 | −19.5% | −35.4% to −9.1% (94%) | −37.2% to −7.4% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 2 Aug 2024, for comparison | 7 | 786 days | −2.1% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 763 days | −4.7% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 703 days | −19.5% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest nine flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 18 | 2 of 18 |
| After bearish flips | 18 | 0 of 18 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
LayerZero's daily line has flipped 16.6 times a year since 2 Aug 2024.
LayerZero, daily flips: 36 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep 2026Lasted 11 days so far | Bull | 0.00001612 BTC | +23.7% | not yet | not yet | +45.8% so far |
| 4 Sep 2026Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.00001302 BTC | −2.2% | not yet | not yet | +23.9% |
| 22 Aug 2026Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00001502 BTC | −5.8% | −9.3% | not yet | −13.4% |
| 16 Aug 2026Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00001199 BTC | +26.7% | +9.7% | not yet | +25.3% |
| 9 Aug 2026Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00001294 BTC | −7.4% | +11.4% | not yet | −7.4% |
| 29 Jul 2026Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.00001186 BTC | +0.9% | +18.3% | not yet | +9.1% |
| 27 Jul 2026Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.00001396 BTC | −16.3% | +6.2% | not yet | −15.0% |
| 14 Jul 2026Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00001325 BTC | −7.7% | −5.5% | not yet | +5.3% |
| 6 Jul 2026Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00001586 BTC | −12.7% | −24.6% | not yet | −16.5% |
| 26 Jun 2026Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00001326 BTC | +7.0% | −0.4% | +28.5% | +19.6% |
| 15 Jun 2026Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00001686 BTC | −11.6% | −24.7% | −21.8% | −21.3% |
| 5 Jun 2026Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00001585 BTC | −9.6% | −7.9% | −12.4% | +6.3% |
| 3 Jun 2026Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.00001949 BTC | −32.2% | −27.2% | −31.9% | −18.6% |
| 31 Mar 2026Lasted 64 days | Bear | 0.00002756 BTC | +5.3% | −32.0% | −51.4% | −29.3% |
| 7 Mar 2026Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.00002847 BTC | −2.3% | −9.6% | −44.3% | −3.2% |
| 15 Feb 2026Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.00002539 BTC | −6.1% | +23.2% | −35.4% | +12.1% |
| 4 Jan 2026Lasted 42 days | Bull | 0.00001532 BTC | +6.6% | +54.1% | +85.8% | +65.8% |
| 18 Dec 2025Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.00001471 BTC | −3.7% | +25.8% | +102.9% | +4.1% |
| 7 Nov 2025Lasted 41 days | Bull | 0.00001630 BTC | −5.7% | −7.4% | +43.2% | −9.7% |
| 30 Sep 2025Lasted 38 days | Bear | 0.00001755 BTC | +13.6% | −19.0% | −18.9% | −7.1% |
| 23 Sep 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00001847 BTC | −5.0% | −15.9% | −20.2% | −5.0% |
| 1 Sep 2025Lasted 22 days | Bear | 0.00001662 BTC | +5.9% | +10.3% | −10.0% | +11.1% |
| 10 Aug 2025Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.00001865 BTC | −2.5% | −4.7% | −14.0% | −10.9% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.00001687 BTC | −8.5% | +6.0% | −9.1% | +10.6% |
| 15 Jul 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00001876 BTC | +0.8% | −5.1% | −5.8% | −10.1% |
| 16 May 2025Lasted 60 days | Bear | 0.00002630 BTC | −6.2% | −29.7% | −32.3% | −28.7% |
| 9 May 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00002895 BTC | −9.2% | −31.1% | −45.7% | −9.2% |
| 29 Mar 2025Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.00003084 BTC | +17.0% | +2.2% | −47.0% | −6.1% |
| 15 Mar 2025Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.00002688 BTC | +47.4% | +9.4% | −29.8% | +14.7% |
| 19 Dec 2024Lasted 86 days | Bear | 0.00005551 BTC | +8.4% | −20.8% | −47.7% | −51.6% |
| 24 Nov 2024Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.00004602 BTC | +40.9% | +29.8% | −33.9% | +20.6% |
| 2 Oct 2024Lasted 53 days | Bear | 0.00006798 BTC | −4.9% | −30.9% | −21.4% | −32.3% |
| 16 Sep 2024Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00006710 BTC | −2.9% | −13.3% | −0.3% | +1.3% |
| 3 Sep 2024Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00005813 BTC | +6.6% | +11.6% | +13.0% | +15.4% |
| 24 Aug 2024Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00006578 BTC | +4.5% | −1.0% | −42.9% | −11.6% |
| 2 Aug 2024Lasted 22 days | Bear | 0.00005875 BTC | −2.4% | +10.9% | −19.5% | +12.0% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 2 Aug 2024, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
36 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.