Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after LayerZero's 4-hour flips
After bullish flips the median price was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 103 of 104 | −2.0% | −4.7% to +3.8% (92%) | −4.8% to +1.7% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 101 of 104 | −6.9% | −11.4% to +0.4% (93%) | −11.0% to −0.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 96 of 104 | −16.0% | −23.9% to −8.8% (92%) | −23.6% to −6.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 103 of 104 | −3.4% | −6.2% to −0.6% (92%) | −4.8% to +1.7% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 101 of 104 | −7.3% | −10.3% to −1.2% (93%) | −11.0% to −0.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 96 of 104 | −14.2% | −22.3% to −7.7% (92%) | −23.6% to −6.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 4 Jul 2024, for comparison | 7 | 816 days | −1.8% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 793 days | −5.3% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 733 days | −14.5% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest 16 flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are 4-hour closes on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (12 hours) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 104 | 3 of 104 |
| After bearish flips | 104 | 7 of 104 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 12 hours. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
LayerZero's 4-hour line has flipped 92.4 times a year since 4 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTC.
On 4-hour candles the line flips often, and nearly every flip is reversed within 30 days, so the 7-, 30- and 90-day columns mostly show where the market drifted, not what the flip did.
LayerZero, 4-hour flips: 104 bearish flips of 208
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | $1.46 | not yet | not yet | not yet | +22.5% |
| 10 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days 20 hours | Bear | $1.05 | −5.4% | not yet | not yet | −5.2% |
| 5 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bear | $1.04 | −5.2% | not yet | not yet | +13.6% |
| 28 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 5 days 20 hours | Bear | $1.09 | +3.4% | +46.2% | not yet | +2.2% |
| 25 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 4 hours | Bear | $1.06 | −2.8% | +41.8% | not yet | +21.1% |
| 12 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hours | Bear | $0.8230 | −4.3% | +24.1% | not yet | −3.5% |
| 28 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 7 days 12 hours | Bear | $0.8900 | −16.6% | +31.6% | not yet | −13.9% |
| 7 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 13 days 16 hours | Bear | $0.9600 | −10.1% | −19.4% | not yet | −15.1% |
| 24 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hours | Bear | $0.9080 | −9.4% | −12.8% | +30.0% | −10.2% |
| 17 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hours | Bear | $1.04 | −10.1% | −21.5% | −4.9% | −5.9% |
| 4 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 7 days 4 hours | Bear | $1.11 | −26.8% | −20.0% | −7.5% | −19.5% |
| 27 May 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 7 days 16 hours | Bear | $1.28 | −11.4% | −36.4% | −15.2% | −6.7% |
| 22 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bear | $1.31 | −12.6% | −30.9% | −34.2% | +1.1% |
| 13 May 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hours | Bear | $1.41 | −6.2% | −36.8% | −39.4% | −5.7% |
| 18 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 16 days | Bear | $1.83 | −14.1% | −30.5% | −55.6% | −23.2% |
| 14 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bear | $1.91 | −12.7% | −26.3% | −54.7% | +4.8% |
| 9 Apr 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days 20 hours | Bear | $1.94 | +0.6% | −25.1% | −52.0% | +4.7% |
| 7 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bear | $1.77 | +14.8% | −16.1% | −47.6% | +7.9% |
| 2 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bear | $1.85 | +7.0% | −25.8% | −55.5% | +3.5% |
| 26 Mar 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 6 days 8 hours | Bear | $2.07 | −5.0% | −23.8% | −54.9% | −3.7% |
| 18 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hours | Bear | $2.18 | +4.0% | −8.7% | −48.8% | −1.1% |
| 12 Mar 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bear | $1.99 | +6.8% | −0.3% | −57.5% | +4.4% |
| 28 Feb 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 12 hours | Bear | $1.54 | +19.3% | +28.0% | −25.9% | +10.7% |
| 23 Feb 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bear | $1.50 | +18.9% | +50.9% | −11.7% | +9.1% |
| 12 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 7 days 20 hours | Bear | $1.98 | −24.4% | −1.7% | −25.2% | −16.9% |
| 10 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 12 hours | Bear | $1.76 | −2.5% | +19.8% | −13.8% | +31.3% |
| 31 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 7 days 4 hours | Bear | $1.90 | −15.0% | −5.8% | −24.7% | −12.7% |
| 24 Jan 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hours | Bear | $2.07 | −8.4% | −22.1% | −22.3% | +8.3% |
| 8 Jan 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | $1.39 | +20.0% | +16.3% | +50.4% | +5.0% |
| 29 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days | Bear | $1.24 | +13.0% | +61.1% | +61.1% | +2.3% |
| 21 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 7 days 12 hours | Bear | $1.28 | −1.8% | +37.9% | +59.0% | −0.3% |
| 15 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hours | Bear | $1.44 | −10.8% | +10.4% | +37.6% | −5.8% |
| 11 Dec 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bear | $1.42 | −7.4% | +1.5% | +44.9% | +5.5% |
| 5 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bear | $1.35 | +7.0% | −1.2% | +45.2% | +12.1% |
| 1 Dec 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bear | $1.22 | +11.4% | +2.0% | +46.1% | +4.6% |
| 11 Nov 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 14 days 16 hours | Bear | $1.58 | −12.3% | −6.6% | +8.9% | −14.9% |
| 3 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bear | $1.54 | +10.3% | −7.3% | +12.9% | +1.4% |
| 28 Oct 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 4 days 20 hours | Bear | $1.69 | −15.1% | −22.2% | +12.2% | −4.1% |
| 22 Oct 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hours | Bear | $1.66 | −0.1% | −19.3% | +6.6% | +6.0% |
| 16 Oct 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hours | Bear | $1.82 | −9.2% | −20.2% | −12.8% | −0.9% |
| 9 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bear | $2.27 | −18.7% | −25.9% | −36.6% | −17.1% |
| 30 Sep 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | $2.17 | +11.8% | −24.5% | −42.5% | −0.2% |
| 25 Sep 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bear | $2.01 | +8.3% | −15.8% | −35.4% | +9.8% |
| 19 Sep 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hours | Bear | $1.99 | +8.3% | −14.1% | −33.7% | −2.4% |
| 14 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bear | $1.97 | +3.4% | +3.5% | −25.0% | −0.4% |
| 29 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 9 days | Bear | $1.98 | −8.7% | +15.7% | −33.4% | −4.7% |
| 25 Aug 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bear | $1.98 | −5.4% | +4.3% | −36.3% | +3.6% |
| 12 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 10 days 8 hours | Bear | $2.21 | −8.4% | −9.0% | −23.2% | −7.0% |
| 5 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | $1.72 | +34.4% | +10.1% | −4.1% | +7.4% |
| 22 Jul 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 13 days 12 hours | Bear | $2.25 | −17.1% | −10.4% | −24.2% | −20.4% |
| 12 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bear | $2.01 | +11.8% | +10.6% | +13.1% | +10.8% |
| 4 Jul 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days | Bear | $1.83 | +13.0% | −8.2% | +18.7% | +0.2% |
| 1 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | $1.85 | −3.3% | −1.7% | +23.9% | +5.8% |
| 26 Jun 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bear | $1.69 | +13.9% | +15.9% | +22.1% | +7.7% |
| 12 Jun 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 11 days 16 hours | Bear | $2.17 | −12.7% | −1.4% | −8.8% | −23.1% |
| 30 May 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 11 days | Bear | $2.59 | −19.4% | −29.6% | −25.6% | −15.6% |
| 24 May 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bear | $2.65 | −15.4% | −39.0% | −27.4% | +4.8% |
| 15 May 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days 20 hours | Bear | $2.87 | −5.2% | −30.2% | −20.7% | −2.4% |
| 13 May 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bear | $2.82 | −3.4% | −20.7% | −21.1% | +15.4% |
| 30 Apr 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 7 days 20 hours | Bear | $2.82 | −13.3% | −7.9% | −33.9% | −9.4% |
| 27 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bear | $2.81 | −11.0% | −3.9% | −30.2% | +8.1% |
| 22 Apr 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 12 hours | Bear | $2.44 | +22.8% | +11.6% | −6.7% | +6.5% |
| 16 Apr 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bear | $2.38 | +13.2% | +19.5% | −8.9% | +4.7% |
| 13 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | $2.47 | +1.3% | +22.8% | −13.1% | +6.1% |
| 6 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bear | $2.69 | −1.2% | −7.3% | −34.0% | −3.3% |
| 3 Apr 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bear | $2.64 | −0.6% | +3.1% | −30.0% | +7.1% |
| 28 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | $2.84 | −0.7% | +4.9% | −37.2% | −1.2% |
| 23 Mar 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bear | $3.06 | −16.6% | −18.4% | −43.6% | −0.8% |
| 3 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 8 days 20 hours | Bear | $2.56 | −31.1% | +10.5% | −11.2% | −27.9% |
| 28 Feb 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bear | $2.48 | −12.8% | +2.7% | +9.1% | +7.6% |
| 21 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hours | Bear | $2.86 | −7.6% | +16.2% | −4.8% | −7.9% |
| 16 Feb 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hours | Bear | $2.95 | −0.4% | −17.6% | −7.7% | +3.5% |
| 1 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 8 days 20 hours | Bear | $3.50 | −23.7% | −20.2% | −20.6% | −17.3% |
| 29 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bear | $3.41 | −17.7% | −22.5% | −12.1% | +12.1% |
| 18 Jan 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 9 days 8 hours | Bear | $4.68 | −18.7% | −38.1% | −48.0% | −18.6% |
| 7 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 8 days | Bear | $5.42 | −20.8% | −49.8% | −53.5% | −15.2% |
| 27 Dec 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days 20 hours | Bear | $5.59 | −3.1% | −30.2% | −46.6% | −4.0% |
| 22 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bear | $5.21 | +6.3% | −21.2% | −38.7% | +13.1% |
| 18 Dec 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bear | $6.33 | −6.9% | −27.1% | −61.7% | −2.1% |
| 14 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | $6.27 | −9.9% | −27.0% | −72.5% | +9.7% |
| 9 Dec 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bear | $6.30 | +10.9% | −17.2% | −66.7% | +5.2% |
| 24 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 8 hours | Bear | $3.66 | +34.6% | +55.0% | −21.2% | +23.0% |
| 20 Nov 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | $3.48 | +25.9% | +55.6% | −14.9% | +5.0% |
| 12 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 4 days 20 hours | Bear | $3.66 | +4.4% | +86.2% | −25.3% | +1.8% |
| 31 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days 16 hours | Bear | $3.46 | +1.6% | +40.3% | −1.5% | −3.8% |
| 21 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 7 days 16 hours | Bear | $3.92 | −13.2% | −8.2% | +17.3% | −9.7% |
| 16 Oct 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hours | Bear | $3.98 | −4.5% | −14.2% | +8.1% | −0.3% |
| 13 Oct 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bear | $3.97 | −3.4% | +2.2% | +17.7% | +6.0% |
| 9 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bear | $4.10 | +0.4% | −10.3% | +43.9% | −0.3% |
| 1 Oct 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 6 days 4 hours | Bear | $4.57 | −7.4% | −21.5% | +15.0% | −5.0% |
| 21 Sep 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hours | Bear | $4.16 | +20.9% | −2.1% | +30.1% | +7.8% |
| 18 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 8 hours | Bear | $3.76 | +14.2% | +0.1% | +73.8% | +12.4% |
| 16 Sep 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 12 hours | Bear | $3.71 | +13.1% | +10.7% | +73.1% | +5.5% |
| 1 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 6 days 4 hours | Bear | $3.92 | −16.3% | +16.4% | +23.7% | −14.2% |
| 26 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bear | $3.98 | −6.2% | +8.1% | −1.9% | +3.0% |
| 16 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | $3.30 | +8.9% | +17.3% | +10.6% | +6.8% |
| 11 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bear | $3.37 | +2.9% | +6.0% | +7.7% | +4.2% |
| 8 Aug 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bear | $2.99 | +12.9% | +7.0% | +3.6% | +12.5% |
| 1 Aug 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days | Bear | $4.21 | −29.0% | −3.9% | −14.2% | −21.3% |
| 28 Jul 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days | Bear | $4.44 | −18.2% | −9.0% | −25.7% | +4.5% |
| 25 Jul 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bear | $4.55 | −2.3% | −14.4% | −16.6% | +8.2% |
| 18 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | $3.82 | +25.9% | −12.3% | +7.6% | +8.8% |
| 11 Jul 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hours | Bear | $3.88 | +3.2% | −10.1% | +6.3% | +4.2% |
| 4 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bear | $3.55 | +13.3% | +1.9% | +23.3% | −5.8% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 4 Jul 2024, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
208 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.