Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after LayerZero's 4-hour flips
After bullish flips the median price was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 103 of 104 | −2.0% | −4.7% to +3.8% (92%) | −4.8% to +1.7% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 101 of 104 | −6.9% | −11.4% to +0.4% (93%) | −11.0% to −0.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 96 of 104 | −16.0% | −23.9% to −8.8% (92%) | −23.6% to −6.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 103 of 104 | −3.4% | −6.2% to −0.6% (92%) | −4.8% to +1.7% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 101 of 104 | −7.3% | −10.3% to −1.2% (93%) | −11.0% to −0.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 96 of 104 | −14.2% | −22.3% to −7.7% (92%) | −23.6% to −6.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 4 Jul 2024, for comparison | 7 | 816 days | −1.8% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 793 days | −5.3% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 733 days | −14.5% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest 16 flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are 4-hour closes on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (12 hours) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 104 | 3 of 104 |
| After bearish flips | 104 | 7 of 104 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 12 hours. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
LayerZero's 4-hour line has flipped 92.4 times a year since 4 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTC.
On 4-hour candles the line flips often, and nearly every flip is reversed within 30 days, so the 7-, 30- and 90-day columns mostly show where the market drifted, not what the flip did.
LayerZero, 4-hour flips: 104 bullish flips of 208
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours so far | Bull | $1.79 | not yet | not yet | not yet | +11.5% so far |
| 16 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 12 days 8 hours | Bull | $0.9950 | +39.7% | not yet | not yet | +46.6% |
| 7 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bull | $1.18 | −14.0% | not yet | not yet | −10.9% |
| 3 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bull | $1.12 | −3.3% | +56.5% | not yet | −7.1% |
| 25 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bull | $1.28 | −19.8% | +17.1% | not yet | −14.8% |
| 17 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 8 days 4 hours | Bull | $0.7940 | +48.7% | +25.3% | not yet | +33.2% |
| 4 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 8 days 8 hours | Bull | $0.7660 | +11.9% | +32.0% | not yet | +7.4% |
| 21 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 6 days 12 hours | Bull | $0.8150 | +9.2% | +5.4% | not yet | +9.2% |
| 29 Jun 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 8 days | Bull | $0.8150 | +14.0% | +0.5% | +96.0% | +17.8% |
| 22 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bull | $0.9750 | −20.4% | −16.5% | +14.5% | −6.9% |
| 11 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 6 days | Bull | $0.8940 | +13.9% | +3.6% | +26.5% | +15.9% |
| 3 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bull | $1.20 | −29.3% | −26.0% | −14.2% | −7.3% |
| 23 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bull | $1.32 | −15.1% | −31.5% | −33.7% | −2.7% |
| 19 May 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bull | $1.33 | +0.4% | −23.7% | −43.5% | −2.1% |
| 4 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 8 days 20 hours | Bull | $1.41 | +7.7% | −19.2% | −48.5% | +0.4% |
| 17 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bull | $2.00 | −19.7% | −36.0% | −59.0% | −8.5% |
| 14 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | $2.04 | −18.0% | −30.7% | −57.4% | −6.1% |
| 7 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bull | $1.91 | +6.4% | −22.3% | −51.4% | +1.6% |
| 6 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 12 hours | Bull | $1.91 | +0.1% | −25.4% | −52.5% | −7.4% |
| 1 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | $1.99 | +5.0% | −28.1% | −59.4% | −7.0% |
| 23 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bull | $2.16 | −8.6% | −25.8% | −58.2% | −4.3% |
| 15 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days | Bull | $2.08 | −5.5% | −2.1% | −56.2% | +5.0% |
| 28 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 11 days 8 hours | Bull | $1.71 | +7.7% | +15.7% | −33.1% | +16.8% |
| 27 Feb 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bull | $1.64 | +14.7% | +21.8% | −26.8% | −6.1% |
| 20 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bull | $1.65 | −3.0% | +19.4% | −17.3% | −8.6% |
| 11 Feb 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | $2.31 | −31.3% | −9.1% | −33.2% | −14.2% |
| 7 Feb 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bull | $1.66 | +13.1% | +17.7% | −9.8% | +6.2% |
| 28 Jan 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bull | $2.24 | −20.2% | −28.8% | −34.6% | −15.3% |
| 9 Jan 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 15 days 4 hours | Bull | $1.46 | +12.1% | +15.8% | +35.8% | +42.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 6 days 8 hours | Bull | $1.27 | +11.1% | +49.6% | +48.3% | +9.4% |
| 29 Dec 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bull | $1.28 | +9.5% | +56.2% | +56.2% | −3.0% |
| 20 Dec 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bull | $1.35 | −8.1% | +27.2% | +52.1% | −5.2% |
| 13 Dec 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bull | $1.50 | −9.8% | −0.9% | +40.0% | −4.1% |
| 9 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bull | $1.51 | −4.4% | −6.9% | +28.7% | −6.1% |
| 2 Dec 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bull | $1.28 | +7.8% | −4.1% | +39.7% | +5.5% |
| 26 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hours | Bull | $1.34 | +6.2% | −8.1% | +10.9% | −9.0% |
| 6 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hours | Bull | $1.56 | −1.9% | −12.3% | +14.4% | +1.1% |
| 1 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | $1.62 | +3.8% | −16.7% | +31.1% | −5.0% |
| 26 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bull | $1.76 | −7.5% | −25.8% | +29.4% | −3.9% |
| 21 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 8 hours | Bull | $1.81 | −6.4% | −22.3% | −4.6% | −8.1% |
| 11 Oct 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days | Bull | $1.88 | −9.7% | −9.7% | −23.6% | −3.2% |
| 1 Oct 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 7 days 20 hours | Bull | $2.16 | +11.9% | −28.8% | −42.6% | +5.1% |
| 26 Sep 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bull | $2.21 | +3.7% | −21.9% | −42.3% | −1.7% |
| 23 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | $1.94 | +16.3% | −14.6% | −33.9% | +3.6% |
| 17 Sep 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | $1.96 | +5.6% | −12.2% | −26.1% | +1.4% |
| 7 Sep 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 7 days 4 hours | Bull | $1.88 | +10.4% | +28.6% | −27.2% | +4.5% |
| 29 Aug 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 hours | Bull | $2.06 | −12.3% | +11.2% | −36.0% | −3.9% |
| 22 Aug 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bull | $2.06 | −2.1% | −1.2% | −31.8% | −3.7% |
| 7 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days | Bull | $1.85 | +27.8% | −0.7% | −23.9% | +19.9% |
| 4 Aug 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | $1.79 | +24.5% | +4.8% | −8.8% | −3.8% |
| 14 Jul 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 8 days 4 hours | Bull | $2.23 | +2.1% | +2.1% | −22.4% | +0.8% |
| 9 Jul 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bull | $1.84 | +20.3% | +0.4% | +31.8% | +9.5% |
| 2 Jul 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | $1.96 | −6.8% | −11.8% | +15.3% | −6.3% |
| 29 Jun 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bull | $1.82 | −2.5% | +2.0% | +29.3% | +1.4% |
| 23 Jun 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days | Bull | $1.67 | +19.6% | +35.8% | +21.8% | +1.4% |
| 10 Jun 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bull | $2.19 | −12.7% | −13.0% | −14.0% | −0.8% |
| 26 May 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hours | Bull | $2.77 | −15.9% | −32.9% | −24.3% | −6.4% |
| 20 May 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bull | $2.80 | −3.5% | −32.2% | −23.8% | −5.5% |
| 13 May 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bull | $3.25 | −16.3% | −31.3% | −31.6% | −11.9% |
| 8 May 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days | Bull | $2.55 | +22.5% | −18.0% | −31.1% | +10.5% |
| 28 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bull | $3.04 | −19.5% | −10.6% | −35.4% | −7.3% |
| 22 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days | Bull | $2.60 | +15.3% | +4.7% | −12.4% | +8.2% |
| 19 Apr 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bull | $2.50 | +15.1% | +9.4% | −9.9% | −2.2% |
| 15 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | $2.62 | −4.7% | +19.4% | −18.0% | −8.9% |
| 9 Apr 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bull | $2.60 | −6.5% | +4.6% | −31.2% | −5.2% |
| 4 Apr 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bull | $2.82 | −14.6% | −11.4% | −31.7% | −4.8% |
| 30 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bull | $2.81 | +7.3% | +6.6% | −37.7% | −6.1% |
| 26 Mar 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bull | $3.03 | −6.9% | −7.7% | −40.9% | −6.3% |
| 12 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 10 days 20 hours | Bull | $1.84 | +31.0% | +31.0% | +19.0% | +66.1% |
| 28 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bull | $2.67 | −18.9% | −4.5% | +1.4% | −4.3% |
| 26 Feb 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bull | $2.63 | −16.3% | +19.0% | +2.7% | −5.7% |
| 20 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bull | $3.05 | −15.0% | +4.7% | −11.5% | −6.2% |
| 10 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 16 hours | Bull | $2.89 | +0.2% | −42.1% | +7.7% | +2.0% |
| 31 Jan 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bull | $3.82 | −32.3% | −32.8% | −27.2% | −8.5% |
| 27 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bull | $3.81 | −22.8% | −32.2% | −21.7% | −10.6% |
| 15 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bull | $4.60 | −7.4% | −35.9% | −45.9% | +1.8% |
| 2 Jan 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hours | Bull | $5.37 | −8.9% | −29.8% | −47.4% | +1.0% |
| 25 Dec 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bull | $5.89 | −15.2% | −31.5% | −51.8% | −5.2% |
| 21 Dec 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bull | $6.20 | −11.8% | −32.7% | −57.4% | −15.9% |
| 15 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bull | $6.88 | −20.2% | −37.6% | −74.3% | −8.0% |
| 11 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days | Bull | $6.63 | −0.9% | −30.8% | −75.8% | −5.4% |
| 25 Nov 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 14 days 4 hours | Bull | $4.50 | +39.8% | +30.8% | −34.8% | +39.9% |
| 21 Nov 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bull | $3.65 | +34.0% | +54.8% | −21.0% | +0.3% |
| 17 Nov 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bull | $3.72 | +4.8% | +75.7% | −16.0% | −6.6% |
| 6 Nov 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 6 days 8 hours | Bull | $3.33 | +11.8% | +89.7% | −10.1% | +10.0% |
| 29 Oct 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bull | $3.54 | −15.0% | +38.3% | +5.7% | −2.3% |
| 20 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | $3.96 | −12.4% | −3.7% | +27.3% | −1.1% |
| 14 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | $4.21 | −3.4% | −11.8% | +11.2% | −5.7% |
| 11 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bull | $4.09 | −7.9% | −7.1% | +19.6% | −2.7% |
| 7 Oct 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bull | $4.34 | −8.5% | −28.7% | +32.7% | −5.6% |
| 25 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hours | Bull | $4.48 | −2.4% | −17.6% | +26.6% | +1.9% |
| 19 Sep 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bull | $4.23 | +4.5% | −8.0% | +55.4% | −1.7% |
| 16 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bull | $3.92 | +7.2% | +4.9% | +64.1% | −4.0% |
| 7 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 8 days 8 hours | Bull | $3.37 | +17.4% | +25.9% | +87.5% | +10.4% |
| 29 Aug 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bull | $4.10 | −18.5% | +22.7% | +6.8% | −4.2% |
| 17 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 9 days 4 hours | Bull | $3.53 | +10.6% | +5.3% | −3.3% | +12.8% |
| 12 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bull | $3.52 | −2.0% | +1.6% | +8.0% | −6.0% |
| 8 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bull | $3.36 | +0.4% | −4.8% | −7.9% | +0.3% |
| 6 Aug 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | $3.32 | +5.9% | +0.7% | −6.6% | −9.9% |
| 31 Jul 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bull | $4.64 | −29.2% | −10.4% | −24.9% | −9.3% |
| 27 Jul 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | $4.93 | −26.7% | −11.8% | −25.1% | −9.9% |
| 20 Jul 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 4 days 16 hours | Bull | $4.16 | +13.4% | −17.1% | −9.4% | +9.6% |
| 15 Jul 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bull | $4.04 | +29.2% | −12.4% | +1.6% | −5.5% |
| 5 Jul 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days 16 hours | Bull | $3.34 | +12.3% | +8.7% | +23.4% | +16.1% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 4 Jul 2024, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
208 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.