Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after LCX's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 39 of 39 | −8.6% | −10.8% to −5.5% (95%) | −6.2% to +0.8% | outside the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 39 of 39 | −8.3% | −22.3% to −0.4% (95%) | −15.3% to −1.2% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 38 of 39 | −18.5% | −24.0% to −12.5% (93%) | −30.2% to −7.1% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 39 of 39 | −1.8% | −4.9% to +2.5% (95%) | −6.2% to +0.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 39 of 39 | −10.2% | −15.8% to −4.5% (95%) | −15.3% to −1.2% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 39 of 39 | −16.1% | −31.5% to −0.8% (95%) | −29.1% to −5.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 7 Dec 2021, for comparison | 7 | 1,754 days | −2.8% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 1,731 days | −9.6% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,671 days | −18.2% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest flip is too recent to count in the 90 day column.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Coinbase. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 39 | 1 of 39 |
| After bearish flips | 39 | 3 of 39 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
LCX's daily line has flipped 16.2 times a year since 7 Dec 2021.
LCX, daily flips: 78 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026Lasted 42 days so far | Bull | 0.0000002464 BTC | +26.2% | +31.5% | not yet | +152.6% so far |
| 11 Jun 2026Lasted 71 days | Bear | 0.0000004090 BTC | −1.2% | −8.8% | −23.8% | −39.8% |
| 2 May 2026Lasted 40 days | Bull | 0.0000004143 BTC | +13.7% | +2.2% | −23.9% | −1.3% |
| 9 Apr 2026Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.0000005293 BTC | −14.0% | −11.0% | −36.2% | −21.7% |
| 1 Apr 2026Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.0000006196 BTC | −8.3% | −35.2% | −41.0% | −14.6% |
| 11 Mar 2026Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.0000006267 BTC | +0.1% | −13.9% | −31.5% | −1.1% |
| 31 Jan 2026Lasted 39 days | Bull | 0.0000006663 BTC | +1.2% | +1.0% | −39.8% | −5.9% |
| 28 Jan 2026Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.0000005697 BTC | +23.3% | +21.0% | −31.5% | +16.9% |
| 24 Dec 2025Lasted 35 days | Bull | 0.0000007111 BTC | −18.7% | −15.0% | −18.5% | −19.9% |
| 17 Nov 2025Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.0000009077 BTC | +0.7% | −35.1% | −20.4% | −21.7% |
| 10 Nov 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000001046 BTC | −13.3% | −27.8% | −35.5% | −13.3% |
| 30 Sep 2025Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.000001210 BTC | −8.3% | −22.2% | −46.8% | −13.5% |
| 22 Sep 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.000001360 BTC | −9.5% | −26.3% | −54.0% | −11.0% |
| 16 Sep 2025Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.000001200 BTC | +7.5% | −17.4% | −46.6% | +13.3% |
| 8 Aug 2025Lasted 39 days | Bull | 0.000001053 BTC | +4.2% | +23.5% | −14.7% | +13.9% |
| 24 Jul 2025Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.000001010 BTC | −6.9% | +40.0% | −0.8% | +4.3% |
| 18 Jul 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000001132 BTC | −10.8% | −2.8% | −12.5% | −10.8% |
| 3 Jul 2025Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.0000009851 BTC | +5.5% | −4.8% | +21.5% | +14.9% |
| 23 Jun 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000001149 BTC | −7.6% | −7.9% | +9.7% | −14.2% |
| 7 Jun 2025Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.000001200 BTC | −11.5% | −13.4% | +13.5% | −4.2% |
| 28 May 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000001400 BTC | −9.5% | −23.4% | +1.0% | −14.3% |
| 29 Apr 2025Lasted 29 days | Bear | 0.000001529 BTC | −7.8% | −10.5% | −35.2% | −8.4% |
| 25 Apr 2025Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.000001869 BTC | −21.1% | −34.6% | −45.9% | −18.2% |
| 29 Mar 2025Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.000001693 BTC | −5.7% | −5.2% | −36.7% | +10.4% |
| 19 Mar 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000002047 BTC | −9.9% | −29.3% | −49.6% | −17.3% |
| 7 Mar 2025Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.000001972 BTC | −3.9% | −24.7% | −36.8% | +3.8% |
| 18 Feb 2025Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000002053 BTC | +22.6% | −6.5% | −37.0% | −3.9% |
| 16 Dec 2024Lasted 64 days | Bear | 0.000002981 BTC | −2.7% | −19.2% | −42.0% | −31.1% |
| 23 Nov 2024Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.000001485 BTC | +106.4% | +95.4% | +45.8% | +100.8% |
| 8 Oct 2024Lasted 46 days | Bear | 0.000002141 BTC | −11.4% | −35.6% | +16.7% | −30.6% |
| 4 Oct 2024Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.000002883 BTC | −24.7% | −55.2% | −8.0% | −25.7% |
| 2 Oct 2024Lasted 2 days | Bear | 0.000002446 BTC | −3.0% | −48.6% | +0.8% | +17.9% |
| 21 Sep 2024Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000002342 BTC | +14.3% | −26.1% | +12.2% | +4.4% |
| 3 Sep 2024Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.000002076 BTC | +3.4% | +21.4% | +59.8% | +12.8% |
| 29 Aug 2024Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.000002365 BTC | −11.5% | +13.2% | +53.1% | −12.2% |
| 23 Jul 2024Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.000002549 BTC | −3.3% | −17.2% | −32.1% | −7.2% |
| 4 Jul 2024Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.000002980 BTC | −11.8% | −22.3% | −17.9% | −14.5% |
| 13 Apr 2024Lasted 82 days | Bear | 0.000004326 BTC | +11.4% | −1.2% | −40.3% | −31.1% |
| 27 Mar 2024Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000004809 BTC | +1.2% | −0.4% | −32.8% | −10.0% |
| 13 Feb 2024Lasted 43 days | Bear | 0.000005762 BTC | −12.5% | −40.0% | −25.8% | −16.5% |
| 29 Dec 2023Lasted 46 days | Bull | 0.000002152 BTC | +41.9% | +113.4% | +130.9% | +167.8% |
| 10 Dec 2023Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.000001525 BTC | +3.5% | +78.0% | +172.7% | +41.1% |
| 22 Nov 2023Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.000001630 BTC | +10.8% | −3.1% | +209.4% | −6.4% |
| 17 Nov 2023Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.000001168 BTC | +70.1% | +35.2% | +360.1% | +39.5% |
| 6 Nov 2023Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000001306 BTC | −5.4% | +21.2% | +410.0% | −10.6% |
| 16 Oct 2023Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.000001385 BTC | −6.4% | −10.8% | +112.1% | −5.7% |
| 8 Oct 2023Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.000001589 BTC | −7.7% | −15.1% | +82.2% | −12.9% |
| 30 Aug 2023Lasted 39 days | Bear | 0.000001619 BTC | +1.5% | −10.2% | +18.0% | −1.8% |
| 10 Aug 2023Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.000001699 BTC | −6.5% | −11.8% | −20.4% | −4.7% |
| 13 Jul 2023Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.000001970 BTC | −7.7% | −15.8% | −24.4% | −13.7% |
| 24 Jun 2023Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.000002252 BTC | −1.3% | −15.5% | −35.5% | −12.5% |
| 7 Jun 2023Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.000001829 BTC | +7.7% | +16.2% | −10.3% | +23.1% |
| 31 May 2023Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000002101 BTC | −12.9% | +10.3% | −18.8% | −12.9% |
| 11 May 2023Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.000001842 BTC | +6.7% | +0.2% | −11.3% | +14.1% |
| 6 May 2023Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.000002211 BTC | −12.7% | −8.3% | −29.1% | −16.7% |
| 29 Apr 2023Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.000002000 BTC | +10.5% | −4.5% | −11.8% | +10.5% |
| 20 Apr 2023Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.000002393 BTC | −13.3% | −20.0% | −24.0% | −16.4% |
| 23 Feb 2023Lasted 56 days | Bear | 0.000004561 BTC | −4.9% | −36.1% | −58.5% | −47.5% |
| 12 Feb 2023Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000005787 BTC | −12.3% | −31.8% | −66.7% | −21.2% |
| 9 Feb 2023Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.000004637 BTC | +12.0% | −8.4% | −58.8% | +24.8% |
| 23 Dec 2022Lasted 48 days | Bull | 0.000002170 BTC | −10.9% | +99.5% | +36.4% | +113.7% |
| 20 Nov 2022Lasted 33 days | Bear | 0.000002443 BTC | −1.8% | −24.2% | +114.9% | −11.2% |
| 5 Nov 2022Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.000002972 BTC | −8.6% | −22.5% | +78.1% | −17.8% |
| 11 Oct 2022Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.000002702 BTC | +0.7% | +5.4% | +9.4% | +10.0% |
| 14 Sep 2022Lasted 27 days | Bull | 0.000002734 BTC | −10.3% | +1.7% | −29.2% | −1.2% |
| 8 Sep 2022Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.000002681 BTC | −4.4% | +9.3% | −16.1% | +2.0% |
| 11 Aug 2022Lasted 28 days | Bull | 0.000003257 BTC | −9.6% | −27.7% | −14.2% | −17.7% |
| 21 Jul 2022Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.000002924 BTC | −9.8% | 0.0% | −8.3% | +11.4% |
| 15 Jun 2022Lasted 36 days | Bull | 0.000003191 BTC | −3.8% | +7.9% | −23.1% | −8.4% |
| 11 Jun 2022Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000002438 BTC | +24.3% | +25.7% | +2.2% | +30.9% |
| 9 Jun 2022Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.000003192 BTC | −13.1% | −3.6% | −14.7% | −23.6% |
| 30 Apr 2022Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.000002633 BTC | +8.0% | −19.1% | +0.3% | +21.2% |
| 1 Mar 2022Lasted 60 days | Bull | 0.000002358 BTC | −8.5% | +14.1% | −9.7% | +11.6% |
| 14 Feb 2022Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.000002317 BTC | +2.5% | −7.5% | −2.2% | +1.8% |
| 30 Jan 2022Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.000003216 BTC | −5.5% | −26.7% | −18.1% | −27.9% |
| 24 Dec 2021Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.000003988 BTC | −4.9% | −26.1% | −39.1% | −19.4% |
| 19 Dec 2021Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.000005929 BTC | −33.2% | −48.5% | −64.6% | −32.7% |
| 7 Dec 2021Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.000003662 BTC | −14.8% | +5.2% | −42.5% | +61.9% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 7 Dec 2021, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
78 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.