Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Lighter's 4-hour flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bearish flips the median price in Bitcoin was still higher 90 days later. A bearish flip did not by itself mean the price went down.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 36 of 36 | −1.4% | −3.2% to +6.0% (93%) | −3.8% to +7.7% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 33 of 36 | +6.7% | −10.4% to +34.2% (92%) | −7.2% to +40.0% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 23 of 36 | +111.5% | +57.6% to +140.4% (91%) | too little history | – | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 37 of 37 | +1.4% | −1.0% to +7.9% (90%) | −3.5% to +8.3% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 33 of 37 | +10.9% | −1.4% to +40.7% (92%) | −7.2% to +40.0% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 23 of 37 | +91.2% | +42.4% to +145.0% (91%) | too little history | – | |
| Any day since 27 Jan 2026, for comparison | 7 | 243 days | +1.3% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 220 days | +11.5% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 160 days | too little history | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest 27 flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Bitstamp. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (12 hours) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 36 | 0 of 36 |
| After bearish flips | 37 | 2 of 37 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 12 hours. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
There is less than a year of flips here, too little to count flips a year.
On 4-hour candles the line flips often, and nearly every flip is reversed within 30 days, so the 7-, 30- and 90-day columns mostly show where the market drifted, not what the flip did.
Lighter, 4-hour flips: 73 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 8 days 20 hours so far | Bear | 0.00005875 BTC | −23.6% | not yet | not yet | −28.4% so far |
| 23 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bull | 0.00006025 BTC | −21.9% | not yet | not yet | −2.5% |
| 18 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 16 hours | Bear | 0.00005943 BTC | +1.2% | not yet | not yet | +1.4% |
| 16 Sep 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bull | 0.00005880 BTC | 0.0% | not yet | not yet | +1.1% |
| 16 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bear | 0.00005325 BTC | +10.4% | not yet | not yet | +10.4% |
| 14 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bull | 0.00005975 BTC | −1.6% | not yet | not yet | −10.9% |
| 9 Sep 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.00006100 BTC | −12.7% | not yet | not yet | −2.0% |
| 3 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 6 days 16 hours | Bull | 0.00005016 BTC | +15.5% | −16.2% | not yet | +21.6% |
| 2 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bear | 0.00004507 BTC | +36.5% | −0.4% | not yet | +11.3% |
| 27 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.00004642 BTC | +6.0% | +24.3% | not yet | −2.9% |
| 24 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.00004234 BTC | +7.9% | +38.9% | not yet | +9.6% |
| 21 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bull | 0.00003976 BTC | +16.2% | +49.0% | not yet | +6.5% |
| 20 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bear | 0.00003635 BTC | +20.3% | +62.3% | not yet | +9.4% |
| 17 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.00003733 BTC | +23.1% | +42.7% | not yet | −2.6% |
| 12 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.00003619 BTC | +0.7% | +55.6% | not yet | +3.1% |
| 10 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bull | 0.00003744 BTC | −3.3% | +64.4% | not yet | −3.3% |
| 8 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.00003487 BTC | +1.4% | +61.1% | not yet | +7.3% |
| 6 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bull | 0.00003384 BTC | +9.0% | +78.9% | not yet | +3.0% |
| 31 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.00003291 BTC | +12.3% | +38.2% | not yet | +2.8% |
| 27 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 4 days 20 hours | Bull | 0.00003285 BTC | −2.4% | +27.1% | not yet | +0.2% |
| 23 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.00003369 BTC | +1.1% | +18.6% | not yet | −2.5% |
| 21 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bull | 0.00003514 BTC | −5.1% | +6.7% | not yet | −4.1% |
| 16 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.00003738 BTC | −6.9% | −5.4% | not yet | −6.0% |
| 15 Jul 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | 0.00004043 BTC | −13.1% | −11.5% | not yet | −7.5% |
| 13 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | 0.00003772 BTC | −9.8% | +0.9% | not yet | +7.2% |
| 11 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.00004195 BTC | −14.5% | −15.2% | not yet | −10.1% |
| 8 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.00003746 BTC | +6.5% | −1.4% | not yet | +12.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 6 days 20 hours | Bull | 0.00003381 BTC | +14.8% | +3.6% | +57.6% | +10.8% |
| 1 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 hours | Bear | 0.00002963 BTC | +30.9% | +18.2% | +79.9% | +14.1% |
| 25 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 6 days 16 hours | Bull | 0.00002781 BTC | +24.2% | +14.1% | +111.5% | +6.6% |
| 23 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | 0.00002401 BTC | +28.5% | +45.0% | +145.0% | +15.8% |
| 22 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bull | 0.00002601 BTC | +11.7% | +35.0% | +127.8% | −7.7% |
| 18 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bear | 0.00002513 BTC | +10.6% | +42.7% | +111.9% | +3.5% |
| 8 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 9 days 20 hours | Bull | 0.00002480 BTC | +4.0% | +56.4% | +140.4% | +1.3% |
| 4 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bear | 0.00002379 BTC | −4.7% | +42.2% | +91.2% | +4.3% |
| 29 May 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00001769 BTC | +28.7% | +61.9% | +147.2% | +34.4% |
| 27 May 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bear | 0.00001569 BTC | +53.3% | +71.8% | +173.6% | +12.8% |
| 24 May 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bull | 0.00001737 BTC | +6.4% | +44.6% | +130.0% | −9.7% |
| 22 May 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | 0.00001657 BTC | −4.0% | +46.9% | +126.3% | +4.9% |
| 18 May 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hours | Bull | 0.00001155 BTC | +45.2% | +128.4% | +210.6% | +43.4% |
| 11 May 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 7 days | Bear | 0.00001251 BTC | −11.7% | +106.1% | +181.5% | −7.6% |
| 7 May 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bull | 0.00001231 BTC | −8.1% | +100.8% | +160.4% | +1.6% |
| 7 May 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 12 hours | Bear | 0.00001143 BTC | −1.0% | +116.2% | +180.4% | +7.7% |
| 5 May 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | 0.00001195 BTC | +2.5% | +133.3% | +168.4% | −4.3% |
| 1 May 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.00001145 BTC | +7.8% | +61.4% | +197.4% | +4.4% |
| 28 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bull | 0.00001152 BTC | −1.9% | +32.4% | +185.1% | −0.6% |
| 27 Apr 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bear | 0.00001124 BTC | +4.4% | +40.7% | +185.4% | +2.5% |
| 24 Apr 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.00001199 BTC | −3.2% | +34.2% | +190.4% | −6.2% |
| 12 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 11 days 16 hours | Bear | 0.00001510 BTC | −14.2% | −18.9% | +177.8% | −20.6% |
| 10 Apr 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.00001528 BTC | −9.0% | −14.5% | +145.1% | −1.2% |
| 8 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bear | 0.00001435 BTC | −3.8% | −14.0% | +180.8% | +6.5% |
| 31 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00001255 BTC | +18.9% | −0.5% | +131.5% | +14.3% |
| 29 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bear | 0.00001250 BTC | +17.3% | −10.5% | +142.9% | +0.4% |
| 27 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bull | 0.00001359 BTC | +4.8% | −12.1% | +104.5% | −8.0% |
| 21 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 6 days 20 hours | Bear | 0.00001514 BTC | −12.3% | −20.5% | +69.2% | −10.2% |
| 16 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.00001593 BTC | −13.2% | −13.3% | +59.0% | −4.9% |
| 13 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days | Bear | 0.00001553 BTC | +10.3% | +6.7% | +45.9% | +2.5% |
| 12 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bull | 0.00001573 BTC | +8.3% | −0.9% | +63.9% | −1.2% |
| 5 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 6 days 16 hours | Bear | 0.00001690 BTC | −9.5% | −12.8% | +42.4% | −6.9% |
| 5 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | 0.00001887 BTC | −18.9% | −21.9% | +27.5% | −10.4% |
| 2 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.00002010 BTC | −23.0% | −36.4% | −8.0% | −6.1% |
| 1 Mar 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bull | 0.00002149 BTC | −21.7% | −43.7% | −20.2% | −6.5% |
| 27 Feb 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.00002091 BTC | −18.6% | −38.0% | −27.1% | +2.8% |
| 24 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.00002230 BTC | −12.1% | −37.9% | −24.8% | −6.2% |
| 18 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00002211 BTC | +1.0% | −22.5% | −44.1% | +0.9% |
| 12 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.00002209 BTC | −1.4% | −29.9% | −47.8% | +0.1% |
| 10 Feb 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.00002147 BTC | +13.5% | −28.7% | −40.0% | +2.9% |
| 5 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.00002167 BTC | −2.5% | −22.6% | −45.0% | −0.9% |
| 4 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bear | 0.00001957 BTC | +9.3% | −13.1% | −42.2% | +10.7% |
| 3 Feb 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | 0.00002107 BTC | +4.9% | −10.4% | −44.3% | −7.1% |
| 29 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.00001936 BTC | +11.9% | +6.7% | −39.4% | +8.8% |
| 28 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bull | 0.00002176 BTC | −10.0% | −2.3% | −48.6% | −11.0% |
| 27 Jan 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bear | 0.00001928 BTC | +5.3% | +10.9% | −39.9% | +12.9% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 27 Jan 2026, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
73 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.