Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after NEAR Protocol's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 40 of 40 | +0.1% | −3.4% to +5.0% (92%) | −5.1% to +1.9% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 39 of 40 | +5.0% | −5.4% to +11.3% (95%) | −12.1% to +5.0% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 39 of 40 | −6.4% | −18.5% to +17.9% (95%) | −22.4% to +7.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 40 of 40 | −2.8% | −4.5% to +0.4% (92%) | −5.1% to +1.9% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 40 of 40 | −6.6% | −12.4% to +1.5% (92%) | −12.7% to +4.2% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 40 of 40 | −9.8% | −15.3% to +10.5% (92%) | −23.1% to +6.8% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 11 Dec 2020, for comparison | 7 | 2,116 days | −1.6% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 2,093 days | −4.1% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 2,033 days | −9.0% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest flip is too recent to count in the 30 and 90 day columns.
Prices are daily closes of the native NEAR/BTC market on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 40 | 2 of 40 |
| After bearish flips | 40 | 1 of 40 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
NEAR Protocol's daily line has flipped 13.8 times a year since 11 Dec 2020.
NEAR Protocol, daily flips: 80 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026Lasted 29 days so far | Bull | 0.00002726 BTC | +12.4% | not yet | not yet | +109.1% so far |
| 4 Jun 2026Lasted 92 days | Bear | 0.00003442 BTC | −5.8% | −8.0% | −29.2% | −20.8% |
| 6 May 2026Lasted 29 days | Bull | 0.00001831 BTC | +8.5% | +76.0% | +47.6% | +88.0% |
| 29 Apr 2026Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.00001749 BTC | +4.7% | +85.0% | +47.9% | +4.7% |
| 4 Apr 2026Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.00001867 BTC | +2.8% | −15.3% | +75.0% | −6.3% |
| 25 Mar 2026Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00001792 BTC | −2.6% | +1.5% | +75.8% | +4.2% |
| 25 Feb 2026Lasted 28 days | Bull | 0.00001725 BTC | +4.6% | +3.2% | +94.7% | +3.9% |
| 18 Jan 2026Lasted 38 days | Bear | 0.00001736 BTC | −4.6% | −11.0% | +2.2% | −0.6% |
| 2 Jan 2026Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00001881 BTC | +0.3% | −19.1% | −7.7% | −7.7% |
| 21 Nov 2025Lasted 42 days | Bear | 0.00002188 BTC | −5.4% | −22.1% | −31.3% | −14.0% |
| 6 Nov 2025Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.00002067 BTC | +18.7% | −7.4% | −23.4% | +5.9% |
| 27 Sep 2025Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.00002490 BTC | −2.8% | −18.1% | −30.2% | −17.0% |
| 9 Sep 2025Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.00002361 BTC | −1.8% | +0.3% | −18.5% | +5.5% |
| 19 Aug 2025Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.00002145 BTC | +5.4% | +26.4% | +14.8% | +10.1% |
| 9 Aug 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00002432 BTC | −4.1% | −5.4% | +10.2% | −11.8% |
| 30 Jul 2025Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00002257 BTC | −4.1% | −0.7% | −12.2% | +7.8% |
| 10 Jul 2025Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.00002167 BTC | +9.0% | +12.2% | +11.1% | +4.2% |
| 16 May 2025Lasted 55 days | Bear | 0.00002702 BTC | −3.4% | −21.9% | −13.7% | −19.8% |
| 8 May 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00002650 BTC | +4.6% | −13.5% | −18.3% | +2.0% |
| 4 May 2025Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.00002463 BTC | +22.3% | −3.6% | −15.3% | +7.6% |
| 24 Apr 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00002707 BTC | −2.8% | −5.0% | −14.2% | −9.0% |
| 29 Mar 2025Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.00003107 BTC | −5.9% | −12.4% | −36.5% | −12.9% |
| 25 Mar 2025Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.00003462 BTC | −10.1% | −21.8% | −41.8% | −10.3% |
| 4 Mar 2025Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.00003226 BTC | −8.6% | −6.6% | −26.7% | +7.3% |
| 1 Mar 2025Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.00003800 BTC | −11.9% | −19.9% | −38.2% | −15.1% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 82 days | Bear | 0.00006689 BTC | −6.7% | −18.9% | −52.7% | −43.2% |
| 9 Nov 2024Lasted 30 days | Bull | 0.00006043 BTC | +8.7% | +10.7% | −45.1% | +10.7% |
| 9 Oct 2024Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.00007603 BTC | −3.8% | −25.5% | −27.2% | −20.5% |
| 12 Sep 2024Lasted 27 days | Bull | 0.00007304 BTC | −5.1% | +5.0% | −7.2% | +4.1% |
| 30 Aug 2024Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00006963 BTC | −5.6% | +20.5% | +5.3% | +4.9% |
| 23 Aug 2024Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00007540 BTC | −7.7% | −5.5% | −22.0% | −7.7% |
| 25 Jul 2024Lasted 29 days | Bear | 0.00008229 BTC | −7.2% | −4.5% | −15.2% | −8.4% |
| 24 Jun 2024Lasted 31 days | Bull | 0.00008913 BTC | −6.0% | −3.6% | −20.1% | −7.7% |
| 30 May 2024Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.0001066 BTC | −2.8% | −23.7% | −31.0% | −16.4% |
| 21 Apr 2024Lasted 39 days | Bull | 0.00009945 BTC | +12.3% | +12.2% | −5.9% | +7.1% |
| 12 Apr 2024Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.00008630 BTC | +1.3% | +29.7% | −0.3% | +15.2% |
| 6 Mar 2024Lasted 37 days | Bull | 0.00008917 BTC | +19.1% | +19.4% | +17.9% | −3.2% |
| 28 Feb 2024Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.00006249 BTC | +42.7% | +59.6% | +80.4% | +42.7% |
| 24 Feb 2024Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.00007493 BTC | −3.4% | +42.3% | +54.0% | −16.6% |
| 5 Jan 2024Lasted 50 days | Bear | 0.00008040 BTC | +0.4% | −19.5% | +22.2% | −6.8% |
| 12 Nov 2023Lasted 54 days | Bull | 0.00004591 BTC | +15.7% | +20.7% | +38.9% | +75.1% |
| 9 Nov 2023Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.00003915 BTC | +21.6% | +41.5% | +65.2% | +17.3% |
| 27 Oct 2023Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00003602 BTC | +17.9% | +35.4% | +87.1% | +8.7% |
| 12 Sep 2023Lasted 45 days | Bear | 0.00004142 BTC | −0.6% | −8.7% | +31.2% | −13.0% |
| 23 Aug 2023Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.00004576 BTC | −3.6% | −7.8% | +6.9% | −9.5% |
| 7 Aug 2023Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.00004584 BTC | −1.0% | −4.3% | +2.0% | −0.2% |
| 14 Jul 2023Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.00004946 BTC | +0.1% | −7.5% | −23.5% | −7.3% |
| 6 Jul 2023Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.00004383 BTC | +6.2% | +6.2% | −9.8% | +12.8% |
| 26 Jun 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00004907 BTC | −4.7% | −5.2% | −15.0% | −10.7% |
| 21 Apr 2023Lasted 66 days | Bear | 0.00007068 BTC | −7.5% | −14.9% | −27.4% | −30.6% |
| 12 Apr 2023Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00007449 BTC | +0.1% | −17.4% | −41.7% | −5.1% |
| 28 Feb 2023Lasted 43 days | Bear | 0.00009640 BTC | −6.5% | −28.7% | −39.1% | −22.7% |
| 4 Jan 2023Lasted 55 days | Bull | 0.00009196 BTC | +10.3% | +16.4% | −22.9% | +4.8% |
| 15 Sep 2022Lasted 111 days | Bear | 0.0002124 BTC | −6.2% | −27.8% | −56.1% | −56.7% |
| 31 Aug 2022Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.0002182 BTC | +4.0% | −16.0% | −55.2% | −2.6% |
| 18 Aug 2022Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.0002092 BTC | −4.3% | +4.1% | −44.8% | +4.3% |
| 19 Jul 2022Lasted 30 days | Bull | 0.0001939 BTC | −8.9% | +7.9% | −19.3% | +7.9% |
| 11 Jul 2022Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.0001615 BTC | +12.1% | +52.6% | +12.0% | +20.0% |
| 21 Jun 2022Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.0001698 BTC | −0.8% | +11.3% | +22.2% | −4.9% |
| 26 Apr 2022Lasted 56 days | Bear | 0.0003329 BTC | −4.5% | −46.2% | −46.7% | −49.0% |
| 1 Mar 2022Lasted 56 days | Bull | 0.0002656 BTC | −5.4% | +10.1% | −31.7% | +25.3% |
| 21 Jan 2022Lasted 39 days | Bear | 0.0003630 BTC | −21.4% | −33.3% | +6.4% | −26.8% |
| 23 Dec 2021Lasted 29 days | Bull | 0.0002700 BTC | +21.2% | +20.5% | +7.9% | +34.4% |
| 16 Dec 2021Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.0001939 BTC | +39.2% | +130.8% | +35.6% | +39.2% |
| 8 Dec 2021Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.0001849 BTC | +9.0% | +95.8% | +35.9% | +4.9% |
| 31 Oct 2021Lasted 38 days | Bear | 0.0001657 BTC | −1.5% | −7.5% | +74.5% | +11.5% |
| 24 Oct 2021Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.0001579 BTC | +5.0% | +9.8% | +106.0% | +5.0% |
| 17 Sep 2021Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.0001754 BTC | +6.2% | −27.8% | +10.5% | −10.0% |
| 11 Aug 2021Lasted 37 days | Bull | 0.00006540 BTC | +51.5% | +238.4% | +159.9% | +168.2% |
| 19 Jul 2021Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.00005610 BTC | +2.9% | +76.6% | +125.7% | +16.6% |
| 7 Jul 2021Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00006820 BTC | −10.9% | −13.6% | +127.5% | −17.7% |
| 19 May 2021Lasted 49 days | Bear | 0.00009830 BTC | −8.3% | −16.7% | −15.1% | −30.6% |
| 13 May 2021Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0001105 BTC | −6.5% | −25.8% | −40.8% | −11.0% |
| 18 Apr 2021Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.00009190 BTC | +2.8% | +44.2% | −33.2% | +20.2% |
| 26 Feb 2021Lasted 51 days | Bull | 0.00009150 BTC | −6.8% | +9.7% | −6.4% | +0.4% |
| 19 Feb 2021Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.00007840 BTC | +16.7% | +34.2% | +31.8% | +16.7% |
| 16 Jan 2021Lasted 34 days | Bull | 0.00005790 BTC | +28.3% | +44.9% | +67.2% | +35.4% |
| 23 Dec 2020Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.00004130 BTC | +1.5% | +73.6% | +136.1% | +40.2% |
| 21 Dec 2020Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.00005370 BTC | −15.8% | +30.2% | +95.9% | −23.1% |
| 11 Dec 2020Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00004810 BTC | −9.6% | −5.2% | +118.3% | +11.6% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 11 Dec 2020, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
80 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.