Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after NEXO's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 19 of 19 | −1.7% | −5.6% to +2.1% (94%) | −2.6% to +1.3% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 19 of 19 | −4.2% | −7.6% to +1.5% (94%) | −7.0% to +1.6% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 19 of 19 | −7.4% | −18.6% to −4.3% (94%) | −13.2% to −3.0% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 19 of 19 | −0.9% | −3.5% to −0.1% (94%) | −2.6% to +1.3% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 19 of 19 | −2.3% | −7.3% to +0.1% (94%) | −7.0% to +1.6% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 18 of 19 | −10.6% | −12.6% to −4.5% (90%) | −14.0% to −3.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 9 Aug 2022, for comparison | 7 | 1,510 days | −0.7% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 1,487 days | −3.0% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,427 days | −7.7% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest flip is too recent to count in the 90 day column.
Prices are daily closes of the native NEXO/BTC market on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 19 | 1 of 19 |
| After bearish flips | 19 | 0 of 19 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
NEXO's daily line has flipped 9.2 times a year since 9 Aug 2022.
NEXO, daily flips: 38 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2026Lasted 89 days so far | Bear | 0.00001189 BTC | −1.3% | −5.5% | not yet | −15.4% so far |
| 1 Jun 2026Lasted 35 days | Bull | 0.00001178 BTC | +6.2% | +6.1% | −6.0% | +0.9% |
| 5 Apr 2026Lasted 57 days | Bear | 0.00001230 BTC | −0.5% | −8.8% | +0.9% | −4.2% |
| 29 Jan 2026Lasted 66 days | Bull | 0.00001076 BTC | −1.1% | +19.9% | +8.5% | +14.3% |
| 30 Dec 2025Lasted 30 days | Bear | 0.00001007 BTC | +3.6% | +6.9% | +30.7% | +6.9% |
| 6 Nov 2025Lasted 54 days | Bull | 0.00001070 BTC | −1.1% | +3.2% | −2.8% | −5.9% |
| 26 Oct 2025Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.000009990 BTC | +2.3% | +11.1% | +5.9% | +7.1% |
| 14 Oct 2025Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00001081 BTC | −1.8% | −2.1% | −2.8% | −7.6% |
| 1 Oct 2025Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00001061 BTC | −2.6% | −4.8% | −5.1% | +1.9% |
| 20 Jul 2025Lasted 73 days | Bull | 0.00001150 BTC | −2.9% | −1.9% | −4.3% | −7.7% |
| 19 May 2025Lasted 62 days | Bear | 0.00001197 BTC | −3.9% | −2.3% | −5.1% | −3.9% |
| 28 Apr 2025Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.00001273 BTC | +4.3% | −9.3% | −12.3% | −6.0% |
| 1 Mar 2025Lasted 58 days | Bear | 0.00001317 BTC | +2.5% | −0.2% | −11.6% | −3.3% |
| 27 Jan 2025Lasted 33 days | Bull | 0.00001438 BTC | −2.3% | −0.6% | −17.4% | −8.4% |
| 16 Dec 2024Lasted 42 days | Bear | 0.00001390 BTC | +3.4% | −1.3% | −8.7% | +3.5% |
| 25 Nov 2024Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.00001451 BTC | +3.9% | −4.2% | −4.5% | −4.2% |
| 12 Nov 2024Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00001350 BTC | −0.3% | +11.1% | +1.2% | +7.5% |
| 9 Nov 2024Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.00001494 BTC | −7.2% | −4.7% | −7.4% | −9.6% |
| 20 Jul 2024Lasted 112 days | Bear | 0.00001869 BTC | −6.6% | −7.3% | −21.2% | −20.1% |
| 15 Jul 2024Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00001969 BTC | −8.2% | −7.6% | −19.8% | −5.1% |
| 17 Jun 2024Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.00001980 BTC | −0.9% | −0.8% | −18.0% | −0.6% |
| 15 Apr 2024Lasted 63 days | Bull | 0.00002052 BTC | −7.6% | −5.2% | −5.2% | −3.5% |
| 18 Mar 2024Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.00001960 BTC | +0.7% | +0.1% | +3.4% | +4.7% |
| 3 Nov 2023Lasted 136 days | Bull | 0.00001948 BTC | +2.1% | +2.3% | +5.5% | +0.6% |
| 12 Sep 2023Lasted 52 days | Bear | 0.00002130 BTC | −3.5% | −7.4% | −4.5% | −8.5% |
| 27 Jul 2023Lasted 47 days | Bull | 0.00002225 BTC | −0.6% | +1.5% | −18.6% | −4.3% |
| 16 Jun 2023Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.00002293 BTC | −7.7% | −10.7% | −10.6% | −3.0% |
| 18 May 2023Lasted 29 days | Bull | 0.00002562 BTC | −1.7% | −10.7% | −13.2% | −10.5% |
| 1 Apr 2023Lasted 47 days | Bear | 0.00002362 BTC | −0.3% | +2.8% | −10.7% | +8.5% |
| 25 Mar 2023Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00002697 BTC | −12.4% | −10.0% | −21.5% | −12.4% |
| 12 Jan 2023Lasted 72 days | Bear | 0.00003795 BTC | −1.0% | −13.9% | −39.3% | −28.9% |
| 4 Jan 2023Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00004366 BTC | −5.7% | −20.7% | −45.7% | −13.1% |
| 9 Nov 2022Lasted 56 days | Bear | 0.00004541 BTC | −10.0% | −14.1% | −26.6% | −3.9% |
| 20 Oct 2022Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.00004703 BTC | +4.9% | −9.3% | −25.7% | −3.4% |
| 2 Oct 2022Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.00004533 BTC | −0.1% | +9.5% | −12.6% | +3.8% |
| 23 Sep 2022Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00005030 BTC | −5.6% | −5.1% | −22.8% | −9.9% |
| 6 Sep 2022Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.00004816 BTC | −6.1% | −6.3% | −19.1% | +4.4% |
| 9 Aug 2022Lasted 28 days | Bull | 0.00003502 BTC | +14.7% | +31.9% | +38.9% | +37.5% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 9 Aug 2022, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
38 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.