Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Numeraire's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 48 of 49 | −5.5% | −9.7% to −1.8% (94%) | −4.3% to +0.6% | outside the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 47 of 49 | −4.7% | −14.7% to −2.1% (92%) | −10.1% to +1.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 47 of 49 | −14.6% | −24.5% to −7.5% (92%) | −19.8% to −1.1% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 48 of 49 | −0.6% | −3.3% to +2.8% (94%) | −4.3% to +0.6% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 47 of 49 | −2.0% | −8.1% to +5.9% (92%) | −10.1% to +1.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 46 of 49 | −9.3% | −19.1% to +3.8% (95%) | −20.3% to −1.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 22 Nov 2020, for comparison | 7 | 2,135 days | −1.6% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 2,112 days | −4.7% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 2,052 days | −10.7% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest five flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 49 | 5 of 49 |
| After bearish flips | 49 | 1 of 49 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Numeraire's daily line has flipped 16.7 times a year since 22 Nov 2020.
Numeraire, daily flips: 98 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026Lasted 3 days so far | Bear | 0.0001350 BTC | not yet | not yet | not yet | −0.3% so far |
| 27 Sep 2026Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.0001226 BTC | not yet | not yet | not yet | +10.1% |
| 21 Sep 2026Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.0001094 BTC | +54.7% | not yet | not yet | +12.1% |
| 8 Sep 2026Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.0001199 BTC | −4.7% | not yet | not yet | −8.8% |
| 12 Jul 2026Lasted 58 days | Bear | 0.0001479 BTC | +3.1% | −10.6% | not yet | −18.9% |
| 1 Jun 2026Lasted 41 days | Bull | 0.0001199 BTC | +10.8% | +32.4% | −5.4% | +23.3% |
| 22 May 2026Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.0001121 BTC | +0.5% | +27.5% | +4.2% | +6.9% |
| 15 May 2026Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.0001197 BTC | −6.3% | +7.5% | +7.0% | −6.3% |
| 20 Apr 2026Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.0001096 BTC | +6.9% | +9.9% | +39.2% | +9.2% |
| 1 Apr 2026Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.0001050 BTC | +9.6% | +9.5% | +44.3% | +4.4% |
| 15 Mar 2026Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.0001060 BTC | −2.1% | +7.8% | +24.1% | −1.0% |
| 7 Mar 2026Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.0001204 BTC | −11.4% | −3.4% | +2.7% | −12.0% |
| 8 Feb 2026Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.0001179 BTC | +3.7% | −7.6% | −4.5% | +2.2% |
| 29 Jan 2026Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0001100 BTC | +19.4% | +4.1% | +7.0% | +7.2% |
| 20 Jan 2026Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.0001055 BTC | −0.6% | +15.7% | +3.8% | +4.2% |
| 5 Jan 2026Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.0001123 BTC | −4.7% | +21.2% | −0.7% | −6.0% |
| 29 Nov 2025Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.0001232 BTC | −1.0% | −12.1% | −3.1% | −8.9% |
| 20 Nov 2025Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.0001527 BTC | −17.7% | −31.4% | −19.7% | −19.3% |
| 11 Nov 2025Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.0001038 BTC | +6.0% | +15.3% | +12.3% | +47.1% |
| 2 Nov 2025Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.0001217 BTC | −11.8% | −1.9% | −2.4% | −14.7% |
| 10 Oct 2025Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.0001014 BTC | +19.9% | +5.8% | +8.1% | +19.9% |
| 6 Sep 2025Lasted 34 days | Bull | 0.0001603 BTC | −3.0% | −17.6% | −24.5% | −36.7% |
| 1 Sep 2025Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.0001244 BTC | +22.7% | +14.3% | −1.3% | +28.8% |
| 26 Aug 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0001443 BTC | −15.6% | −4.6% | −11.2% | −13.8% |
| 14 Aug 2025Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.00007084 BTC | +5.5% | +119.6% | +50.3% | +103.7% |
| 8 Aug 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00007645 BTC | −6.8% | +141.3% | +41.5% | −7.3% |
| 24 Jul 2025Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.00007242 BTC | +2.8% | +5.9% | +59.2% | +5.6% |
| 18 Jul 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00007395 BTC | +2.6% | +4.0% | +64.5% | −2.1% |
| 5 Jun 2025Lasted 43 days | Bear | 0.00007595 BTC | −2.7% | −11.7% | +59.3% | −2.6% |
| 30 May 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00009020 BTC | −15.8% | −23.9% | +76.1% | −15.8% |
| 6 May 2025Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.00008633 BTC | +10.9% | −12.0% | −14.8% | +4.5% |
| 20 Apr 2025Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00008899 BTC | +8.8% | −4.7% | −14.6% | −3.0% |
| 23 Mar 2025Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.0001064 BTC | −5.9% | −20.6% | −36.8% | −16.4% |
| 17 Mar 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0001297 BTC | −18.3% | −39.6% | −44.1% | −18.0% |
| 3 Mar 2025Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.0001015 BTC | −3.3% | −11.8% | −20.2% | +27.8% |
| 16 Feb 2025Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.0001210 BTC | +4.5% | +2.1% | −28.0% | −16.1% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 69 days | Bear | 0.0002171 BTC | −7.5% | −27.8% | −54.2% | −44.3% |
| 25 Nov 2024Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.0001979 BTC | +18.6% | −16.7% | −36.1% | +9.7% |
| 1 Oct 2024Lasted 55 days | Bear | 0.0002352 BTC | −0.1% | −14.2% | −28.9% | −15.8% |
| 25 Sep 2024Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0002567 BTC | −9.7% | −20.3% | −33.8% | −8.4% |
| 1 Sep 2024Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.0002363 BTC | +2.1% | −0.5% | −2.8% | +8.6% |
| 19 Aug 2024Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.0002640 BTC | −0.7% | −10.1% | −32.8% | −10.5% |
| 14 May 2024Lasted 97 days | Bear | 0.0003954 BTC | +7.1% | −14.9% | −48.7% | −33.2% |
| 6 May 2024Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.0004279 BTC | −2.6% | −6.1% | −54.8% | −7.6% |
| 15 Mar 2024Lasted 52 days | Bear | 0.0005643 BTC | −6.9% | −32.9% | −40.4% | −24.2% |
| 9 Mar 2024Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0007659 BTC | −31.5% | −35.1% | −51.8% | −26.3% |
| 27 Feb 2024Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.0005470 BTC | −4.8% | −2.7% | −21.6% | +40.0% |
| 17 Feb 2024Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0006307 BTC | −4.5% | −18.5% | −36.2% | −13.3% |
| 7 Feb 2024Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.0005466 BTC | −8.8% | +6.0% | −22.1% | +15.4% |
| 25 Jan 2024Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.0004772 BTC | +0.2% | +26.2% | −14.2% | +14.5% |
| 7 Jan 2024Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.0004086 BTC | −0.2% | +41.4% | +18.5% | +16.8% |
| 16 Dec 2023Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.0003929 BTC | −0.8% | +4.4% | +43.6% | +4.0% |
| 4 Dec 2023Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.0003760 BTC | −3.4% | +18.6% | +48.6% | +4.5% |
| 20 Nov 2023Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.0004227 BTC | −1.6% | −9.3% | +52.0% | −11.0% |
| 4 Sep 2023Lasted 77 days | Bear | 0.0005704 BTC | −14.9% | −19.5% | −30.9% | −25.9% |
| 2 Sep 2023Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.0007627 BTC | −30.9% | −37.4% | −47.9% | −25.2% |
| 5 Aug 2023Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.0004454 BTC | −1.9% | +28.0% | −9.3% | +71.2% |
| 26 Jul 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0004630 BTC | −1.8% | −4.6% | −14.6% | −3.8% |
| 31 May 2023Lasted 56 days | Bear | 0.0005248 BTC | −3.9% | −16.3% | −21.9% | −11.8% |
| 26 May 2023Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.0005924 BTC | −9.1% | −24.9% | −25.1% | −11.4% |
| 9 Feb 2023Lasted 106 days | Bear | 0.0008790 BTC | −5.6% | −12.6% | −42.0% | −32.6% |
| 4 Feb 2023Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.0008419 BTC | +5.7% | −3.3% | −34.3% | +4.4% |
| 15 Jan 2023Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.0007805 BTC | −4.6% | +16.8% | −19.1% | +7.9% |
| 9 Jan 2023Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0008249 BTC | −7.2% | +17.5% | −17.9% | −5.4% |
| 7 Dec 2022Lasted 33 days | Bear | 0.0008244 BTC | −4.7% | −7.3% | −4.3% | +0.1% |
| 5 Dec 2022Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.001018 BTC | −20.4% | −25.4% | −18.1% | −19.1% |
| 10 Oct 2022Lasted 56 days | Bear | 0.0007616 BTC | −0.5% | −13.7% | +5.1% | +33.7% |
| 5 Oct 2022Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.0008795 BTC | −11.0% | −14.7% | −14.6% | −13.4% |
| 9 Sep 2022Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.0008474 BTC | −4.8% | −8.1% | −1.7% | +3.8% |
| 21 Jul 2022Lasted 50 days | Bull | 0.0008336 BTC | −12.4% | +4.2% | −9.9% | +1.7% |
| 6 Jul 2022Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.0008408 BTC | −13.9% | +8.7% | −14.2% | −0.9% |
| 18 Jun 2022Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.0004101 BTC | +7.8% | +60.9% | +96.8% | +105.0% |
| 29 Apr 2022Lasted 50 days | Bear | 0.0006151 BTC | −8.1% | −32.4% | +18.7% | −33.3% |
| 25 Apr 2022Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.0006864 BTC | −11.4% | −38.2% | +4.3% | −10.4% |
| 28 Mar 2022Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.0006538 BTC | +3.0% | −2.0% | −35.7% | +5.0% |
| 18 Feb 2022Lasted 38 days | Bull | 0.0007267 BTC | +5.9% | −2.9% | −39.2% | −10.0% |
| 8 Feb 2022Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.0006149 BTC | +6.4% | +15.6% | −13.5% | +18.2% |
| 27 Jan 2022Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.0007199 BTC | −12.6% | +7.1% | −11.0% | −14.6% |
| 7 Dec 2021Lasted 51 days | Bear | 0.0006920 BTC | −4.0% | −1.6% | +7.2% | +4.0% |
| 3 Dec 2021Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.0007483 BTC | −6.3% | −9.0% | −5.5% | −7.5% |
| 13 Sep 2021Lasted 81 days | Bear | 0.0009633 BTC | −6.0% | −18.4% | −29.3% | −22.3% |
| 10 Sep 2021Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.001153 BTC | −17.8% | −31.1% | −37.0% | −16.4% |
| 8 Sep 2021Lasted 2 days | Bear | 0.0008999 BTC | +4.6% | −7.6% | −23.1% | +28.1% |
| 1 Sep 2021Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.0009523 BTC | −5.5% | −2.1% | −26.5% | −5.5% |
| 8 Aug 2021Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.0008744 BTC | +2.5% | +3.4% | −15.5% | +8.9% |
| 30 Jun 2021Lasted 39 days | Bull | 0.001030 BTC | −5.2% | −11.0% | −7.5% | −15.1% |
| 22 Jun 2021Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.0008397 BTC | −2.7% | +14.9% | +7.9% | +22.7% |
| 29 May 2021Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.001578 BTC | −13.0% | −46.5% | −44.1% | −46.8% |
| 19 May 2021Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.001104 BTC | +22.7% | −2.3% | −20.2% | +42.9% |
| 16 May 2021Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.001641 BTC | −39.6% | −38.2% | −46.1% | −32.7% |
| 25 Apr 2021Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.001128 BTC | +4.0% | −1.7% | −15.1% | +45.4% |
| 4 Apr 2021Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.001134 BTC | +6.6% | +8.0% | −19.1% | −0.5% |
| 25 Mar 2021Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.0007590 BTC | +20.9% | +51.5% | +12.5% | +49.4% |
| 18 Mar 2021Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.001029 BTC | −26.2% | +43.9% | −2.8% | −26.2% |
| 19 Feb 2021Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.0007428 BTC | +15.2% | +17.5% | +61.6% | +38.5% |
| 5 Feb 2021Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.0009105 BTC | +0.9% | −15.1% | +33.9% | −18.4% |
| 8 Dec 2020Lasted 59 days | Bear | 0.001550 BTC | −9.8% | −53.5% | −49.1% | −41.3% |
| 22 Nov 2020Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.001763 BTC | +10.5% | −39.8% | −59.4% | −12.1% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 22 Nov 2020, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
98 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.