Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Oasis's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 41 of 41 | −0.9% | −3.6% to +1.4% (94%) | −5.4% to +1.3% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 40 of 41 | −6.6% | −9.5% to +6.4% (92%) | −13.8% to +0.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 39 of 41 | −11.7% | −28.1% to +0.8% (95%) | −27.8% to −4.0% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 41 of 41 | −1.8% | −3.7% to +1.5% (94%) | −5.4% to +1.3% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 41 of 41 | −7.7% | −16.4% to +0.1% (94%) | −12.9% to +1.2% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 40 of 41 | −22.6% | −27.5% to −16.0% (92%) | −28.5% to −5.6% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 17 Dec 2020, for comparison | 7 | 2,110 days | −2.2% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 2,087 days | −5.6% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 2,027 days | −19.1% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest three flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 41 | 0 of 41 |
| After bearish flips | 41 | 2 of 41 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Oasis's daily line has flipped 14.2 times a year since 17 Dec 2020.
Oasis, daily flips: 82 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026Lasted 29 days so far | Bull | 0.00000008411 BTC | +1.2% | not yet | not yet | +18.5% so far |
| 19 Aug 2026Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.00000008033 BTC | −3.4% | +15.1% | not yet | +4.7% |
| 1 Aug 2026Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.00000008898 BTC | −1.9% | −12.9% | not yet | −9.7% |
| 29 Jun 2026Lasted 33 days | Bear | 0.00000009608 BTC | −2.0% | −13.5% | +11.0% | −7.4% |
| 16 Jun 2026Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.0000001116 BTC | −8.3% | −20.6% | −22.2% | −13.9% |
| 15 May 2026Lasted 32 days | Bear | 0.0000001312 BTC | −3.5% | −24.6% | −35.8% | −14.9% |
| 8 May 2026Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.0000001419 BTC | −7.5% | −25.8% | −36.9% | −7.5% |
| 22 Apr 2026Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.0000001396 BTC | −7.6% | −9.3% | −40.0% | +1.7% |
| 11 Apr 2026Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.0000001574 BTC | −6.9% | −12.5% | −42.2% | −11.4% |
| 1 Mar 2026Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.0000001677 BTC | +1.0% | −10.1% | −26.3% | −6.1% |
| 4 Jan 2026Lasted 56 days | Bull | 0.0000001373 BTC | −6.6% | +57.8% | +8.1% | +22.1% |
| 31 Dec 2025Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.0000001160 BTC | +14.6% | +108.1% | +29.9% | +18.4% |
| 27 Dec 2025Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.0000001315 BTC | −3.5% | +59.4% | +20.0% | −11.8% |
| 23 Nov 2025Lasted 34 days | Bear | 0.0000001780 BTC | −12.0% | −33.8% | +9.8% | −26.1% |
| 2 Nov 2025Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.0000001616 BTC | +34.3% | −6.6% | +37.2% | +10.2% |
| 23 Sep 2025Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.0000002355 BTC | −8.1% | −36.1% | −50.4% | −31.4% |
| 9 Sep 2025Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.0000002483 BTC | −2.1% | −16.7% | −41.7% | −5.2% |
| 1 Sep 2025Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.0000002160 BTC | +6.9% | +3.4% | −27.5% | +14.9% |
| 8 Aug 2025Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.0000002425 BTC | −3.2% | −9.5% | −11.7% | −10.9% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.0000002402 BTC | −7.0% | +3.4% | −34.7% | +0.9% |
| 29 Jun 2025Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.0000002399 BTC | −9.0% | −5.1% | −3.0% | +0.2% |
| 17 May 2025Lasted 43 days | Bear | 0.0000003173 BTC | −5.1% | −27.1% | −26.0% | −24.4% |
| 9 May 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.0000003358 BTC | 0.0% | −22.4% | −31.2% | −5.5% |
| 4 May 2025Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.0000002941 BTC | +25.2% | −3.6% | −29.7% | +14.2% |
| 24 Apr 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0000003069 BTC | +1.2% | −1.9% | −21.7% | −4.2% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 136 days | Bear | 0.000001119 BTC | −9.2% | −25.7% | −65.5% | −72.6% |
| 23 Nov 2024Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.000001003 BTC | +10.6% | −8.6% | −56.7% | +11.5% |
| 13 Nov 2024Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.0000008741 BTC | −6.6% | +29.5% | −47.9% | +14.8% |
| 7 Nov 2024Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000001027 BTC | −15.6% | +30.4% | −57.5% | −14.8% |
| 3 Oct 2024Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.000001092 BTC | −1.8% | −17.3% | −19.9% | −6.0% |
| 12 Sep 2024Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.0000009762 BTC | +4.2% | +15.3% | +17.0% | +11.9% |
| 7 Jul 2024Lasted 67 days | Bear | 0.000001396 BTC | −0.2% | −23.2% | −22.6% | −30.1% |
| 2 Jul 2024Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.000001649 BTC | −15.7% | −26.8% | −26.3% | −15.4% |
| 17 Jun 2024Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.000001528 BTC | −0.3% | −7.7% | −33.8% | +8.0% |
| 30 May 2024Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.000001455 BTC | +12.6% | +7.9% | −35.2% | +5.0% |
| 18 Mar 2024Lasted 73 days | Bear | 0.000002099 BTC | +2.3% | −29.3% | −16.0% | −30.7% |
| 1 Mar 2024Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000002597 BTC | −4.2% | −25.7% | −44.0% | −19.2% |
| 15 Feb 2024Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.000002385 BTC | −1.8% | −4.5% | −44.6% | +8.9% |
| 2 Feb 2024Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.000002678 BTC | −4.4% | −4.9% | −41.6% | −10.9% |
| 7 Jan 2024Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.000002584 BTC | +2.6% | +0.1% | −27.6% | +3.7% |
| 14 Dec 2023Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.000002169 BTC | +15.3% | +22.2% | +7.9% | +19.1% |
| 4 Dec 2023Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.000001984 BTC | −2.4% | +46.3% | +28.4% | +9.3% |
| 25 Oct 2023Lasted 40 days | Bull | 0.000001481 BTC | +10.2% | +31.9% | +63.3% | +33.9% |
| 2 Oct 2023Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.000001516 BTC | −3.7% | +7.6% | +114.4% | −2.3% |
| 19 Sep 2023Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.000001591 BTC | −0.9% | −12.1% | +31.6% | −4.7% |
| 31 Jul 2023Lasted 50 days | Bear | 0.000001631 BTC | −2.4% | −6.9% | −6.6% | −2.4% |
| 1 Jul 2023Lasted 30 days | Bull | 0.000001685 BTC | −6.5% | −3.2% | −7.7% | −3.2% |
| 7 Jun 2023Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.000001887 BTC | −6.8% | −16.4% | −16.2% | −10.7% |
| 3 Jun 2023Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.000002015 BTC | −15.0% | −16.5% | −25.2% | −6.3% |
| 21 Apr 2023Lasted 43 days | Bear | 0.000002251 BTC | −6.3% | −14.3% | −24.4% | −10.5% |
| 14 Apr 2023Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000002330 BTC | −3.4% | −15.3% | −28.1% | −3.4% |
| 25 Feb 2023Lasted 48 days | Bear | 0.000002835 BTC | −10.2% | −30.3% | −32.5% | −17.8% |
| 22 Jan 2023Lasted 34 days | Bull | 0.000002370 BTC | +4.2% | +27.8% | −0.6% | +19.6% |
| 18 Jan 2023Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000002167 BTC | +10.5% | +45.5% | +19.8% | +9.4% |
| 8 Jan 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000002339 BTC | +1.4% | +17.0% | −10.3% | −7.4% |
| 8 Nov 2022Lasted 61 days | Bear | 0.000003046 BTC | −8.8% | −15.0% | −22.5% | −23.2% |
| 4 Nov 2022Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.000003411 BTC | −15.0% | −19.3% | −31.7% | −10.7% |
| 2 Nov 2022Lasted 2 days | Bear | 0.000002885 BTC | +1.6% | −3.0% | −20.0% | +18.3% |
| 22 Oct 2022Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000003042 BTC | +0.7% | −8.6% | −28.6% | −5.2% |
| 12 Oct 2022Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.000002921 BTC | +3.2% | −0.7% | −21.2% | +4.1% |
| 23 Sep 2022Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.000003359 BTC | −6.5% | −8.7% | −38.6% | −13.0% |
| 14 Aug 2022Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.000003823 BTC | −16.7% | −22.9% | −27.5% | −12.1% |
| 28 Jul 2022Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.000003023 BTC | +18.4% | +6.4% | +0.8% | +26.5% |
| 24 Jul 2022Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000002337 BTC | +54.0% | +44.9% | +30.2% | +29.4% |
| 15 Jun 2022Lasted 39 days | Bull | 0.000002397 BTC | +5.5% | +1.4% | +23.0% | −2.5% |
| 6 Apr 2022Lasted 70 days | Bear | 0.000005589 BTC | +4.8% | −19.7% | −56.0% | −57.1% |
| 22 Mar 2022Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.000005970 BTC | −3.6% | −9.8% | −60.8% | −6.4% |
| 20 Jan 2022Lasted 61 days | Bear | 0.00001034 BTC | −18.9% | −36.3% | −46.4% | −42.2% |
| 11 Nov 2021Lasted 70 days | Bull | 0.000003551 BTC | +50.1% | +49.4% | +138.7% | +191.1% |
| 21 Sep 2021Lasted 51 days | Bear | 0.000003924 BTC | −8.2% | −22.8% | +36.8% | −9.5% |
| 29 Jul 2021Lasted 54 days | Bull | 0.000001821 BTC | +15.6% | +15.0% | +60.0% | +115.5% |
| 27 Jul 2021Lasted 2 days | Bear | 0.000001648 BTC | +14.9% | +24.4% | +78.7% | +10.5% |
| 2 Jul 2021Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.000002024 BTC | −0.2% | −7.0% | +75.6% | −18.6% |
| 21 Jun 2021Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.000001609 BTC | −1.5% | +12.3% | +207.8% | +25.8% |
| 27 May 2021Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.000002223 BTC | −5.1% | −32.5% | −5.2% | −27.6% |
| 24 Mar 2021Lasted 64 days | Bear | 0.000002772 BTC | +9.8% | +0.5% | −38.8% | −19.8% |
| 5 Mar 2021Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.000002640 BTC | +17.3% | +29.9% | −20.1% | +5.0% |
| 25 Feb 2021Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.000001941 BTC | +14.5% | +52.0% | −1.8% | +36.0% |
| 10 Feb 2021Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.000002356 BTC | +8.5% | +31.4% | +5.2% | −17.6% |
| 29 Jan 2021Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.000001646 BTC | +14.2% | +22.2% | +69.8% | +43.1% |
| 16 Jan 2021Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.000001494 BTC | +33.8% | +38.3% | +104.9% | +10.2% |
| 17 Dec 2020Lasted 30 days | Bear | 0.000002021 BTC | +1.5% | −26.1% | +73.8% | −26.1% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 17 Dec 2020, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
82 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.