Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Optimism's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 31 of 31 | −2.3% | −7.4% to +0.8% (93%) | −5.9% to +1.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 31 of 31 | −10.0% | −15.3% to −3.3% (93%) | −16.2% to +0.8% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 28 of 31 | −29.4% | −38.3% to −10.4% (91%) | −40.3% to −8.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 31 of 31 | 0.0% | −2.7% to +2.6% (93%) | −5.9% to +1.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 31 of 31 | −7.1% | −17.5% to −0.9% (93%) | −16.2% to +0.8% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 28 of 31 | −31.1% | −42.4% to −18.6% (91%) | −40.3% to −8.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 14 Aug 2022, for comparison | 7 | 1,505 days | −2.1% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 1,482 days | −8.9% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,422 days | −21.7% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest six flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 31 | 2 of 31 |
| After bearish flips | 31 | 1 of 31 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Optimism's daily line has flipped 15.0 times a year since 14 Aug 2022.
Optimism, daily flips: 62 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Sep 2026Lasted 31 days so far | Bull | 0.000001283 BTC | −0.9% | +17.3% | not yet | +25.5% so far |
| 25 Aug 2026Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.000001292 BTC | −4.9% | +20.5% | not yet | −0.8% |
| 22 Aug 2026Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.000001414 BTC | −19.8% | +4.1% | not yet | −8.6% |
| 17 Aug 2026Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.000001306 BTC | +4.4% | −3.8% | not yet | +8.3% |
| 11 Aug 2026Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000001434 BTC | −11.5% | −14.6% | not yet | −8.9% |
| 16 Jul 2026Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.000001546 BTC | −8.0% | −12.9% | not yet | −7.3% |
| 25 Jun 2026Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.000001766 BTC | −9.2% | −18.8% | −17.5% | −12.4% |
| 5 Jun 2026Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.000001603 BTC | −2.1% | +6.3% | −22.3% | +10.1% |
| 3 Jun 2026Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.000001914 BTC | −22.7% | −10.6% | −35.8% | −16.2% |
| 14 May 2026Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.000001787 BTC | −4.5% | −7.1% | −24.1% | +7.1% |
| 16 Apr 2026Lasted 28 days | Bull | 0.000001762 BTC | −11.8% | −3.3% | −10.4% | +1.4% |
| 20 Jan 2026Lasted 86 days | Bear | 0.000003393 BTC | −0.3% | −38.5% | −51.8% | −48.1% |
| 1 Jan 2026Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.000003341 BTC | +3.3% | −10.9% | −51.6% | +1.5% |
| 21 Nov 2025Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.000003619 BTC | +0.6% | −15.2% | −42.4% | −7.7% |
| 7 Nov 2025Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.000004098 BTC | −2.3% | −17.7% | −29.4% | −11.7% |
| 22 Sep 2025Lasted 46 days | Bear | 0.000006246 BTC | −5.6% | −37.6% | −50.8% | −34.4% |
| 8 Aug 2025Lasted 45 days | Bull | 0.000006488 BTC | −4.9% | 0.0% | −44.5% | −3.7% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.000005810 BTC | +3.1% | +16.1% | −31.1% | +11.7% |
| 10 Jul 2025Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.000005672 BTC | +6.4% | +22.6% | +4.5% | +2.4% |
| 16 May 2025Lasted 55 days | Bear | 0.000006843 BTC | +1.3% | −18.1% | −7.0% | −17.1% |
| 9 May 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000007390 BTC | −7.4% | −21.9% | −17.5% | −7.4% |
| 30 Apr 2025Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.000007741 BTC | −20.5% | −22.9% | −20.5% | −4.5% |
| 20 Apr 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000008406 BTC | −1.8% | −19.8% | −23.0% | −7.9% |
| 6 Mar 2025Lasted 45 days | Bear | 0.00001061 BTC | −2.7% | −21.5% | −43.5% | −20.8% |
| 26 Feb 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00001372 BTC | −20.6% | −28.1% | −49.1% | −22.7% |
| 24 Feb 2025Lasted 2 days | Bear | 0.00001097 BTC | +4.1% | −7.0% | −37.6% | +25.1% |
| 17 Feb 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00001259 BTC | −12.9% | −15.8% | −45.5% | −12.9% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 70 days | Bear | 0.00002302 BTC | +2.3% | −17.5% | −54.4% | −45.3% |
| 21 Nov 2024Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.00002119 BTC | +16.5% | −15.3% | −45.0% | +8.6% |
| 3 Oct 2024Lasted 49 days | Bear | 0.00002500 BTC | +3.1% | −15.9% | −23.1% | −15.3% |
| 21 Sep 2024Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00002791 BTC | +2.3% | −8.7% | −30.8% | −10.4% |
| 15 Sep 2024Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00002491 BTC | +6.7% | +3.8% | −3.5% | +12.0% |
| 22 Aug 2024Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.00002501 BTC | −3.9% | +11.6% | −30.1% | −0.4% |
| 28 Jul 2024Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.00002495 BTC | −8.4% | −7.4% | −6.5% | +0.2% |
| 9 Jul 2024Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.00002789 BTC | −1.3% | −17.1% | −4.2% | −10.5% |
| 13 May 2024Lasted 57 days | Bear | 0.00003964 BTC | +2.6% | −20.7% | −43.8% | −29.6% |
| 27 Apr 2024Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00004138 BTC | +8.9% | −10.0% | −38.3% | −4.2% |
| 17 Mar 2024Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.00005239 BTC | +5.3% | −32.9% | −39.4% | −21.0% |
| 5 Mar 2024Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00007084 BTC | −13.8% | −36.0% | −50.7% | −26.0% |
| 27 Feb 2024Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.00006496 BTC | +9.1% | −19.0% | −42.6% | +9.1% |
| 6 Feb 2024Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.00007715 BTC | −2.7% | −9.6% | −43.2% | −15.8% |
| 23 Jan 2024Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.00007071 BTC | +4.0% | +0.4% | −46.0% | +9.1% |
| 7 Dec 2023Lasted 47 days | Bull | 0.00005019 BTC | +4.8% | +46.1% | +37.0% | +40.9% |
| 30 Nov 2023Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.00004432 BTC | +13.2% | +92.9% | +36.1% | +13.2% |
| 5 Nov 2023Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.00004399 BTC | +11.7% | −7.0% | +56.5% | +0.8% |
| 1 Sep 2023Lasted 65 days | Bear | 0.00005111 BTC | −2.1% | −1.3% | −13.3% | −13.9% |
| 19 Aug 2023Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00005648 BTC | +0.8% | −9.5% | −17.3% | −9.5% |
| 9 Aug 2023Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00005243 BTC | −6.3% | −4.5% | −18.6% | +7.7% |
| 14 Jul 2023Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.00004807 BTC | +5.0% | +9.3% | −7.4% | +9.1% |
| 28 Jun 2023Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.00004046 BTC | 0.0% | +24.6% | +21.4% | +18.8% |
| 21 Jun 2023Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00004778 BTC | −15.3% | +5.6% | +6.2% | −15.3% |
| 23 Apr 2023Lasted 59 days | Bear | 0.00007985 BTC | −7.2% | −23.2% | −34.1% | −40.2% |
| 14 Apr 2023Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00008714 BTC | −4.2% | −30.3% | −50.0% | −8.4% |
| 4 Mar 2023Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.0001060 BTC | −12.9% | −26.5% | −49.8% | −17.8% |
| 24 Feb 2023Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.0001320 BTC | −13.8% | −38.7% | −53.7% | −19.7% |
| 12 Feb 2023Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.0001071 BTC | −0.8% | +2.6% | −42.9% | +23.2% |
| 4 Jan 2023Lasted 39 days | Bull | 0.00006113 BTC | +16.8% | +116.5% | +29.7% | +75.2% |
| 16 Dec 2022Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.00005682 BTC | +0.1% | +53.6% | +74.7% | +7.6% |
| 1 Dec 2022Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.00006226 BTC | +0.8% | −11.0% | +88.2% | −8.7% |
| 8 Nov 2022Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.00005214 BTC | +6.3% | +20.4% | +145.2% | +19.4% |
| 23 Oct 2022Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00004241 BTC | +19.1% | +25.3% | +127.9% | +22.9% |
| 14 Aug 2022Lasted 70 days | Bear | 0.00005916 BTC | −7.6% | −0.9% | −7.4% | −28.3% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 14 Aug 2022, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
62 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.