Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Polkadot's daily flips
After bullish flips the median price was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 41 of 41 | +0.5% | −5.4% to +3.9% (94%) | −4.8% to +3.5% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 39 of 41 | +3.7% | −7.3% to +9.3% (95%) | −12.6% to +3.6% | outside the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 37 of 41 | −21.4% | −31.5% to +8.1% (90%) | −28.1% to −3.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 40 of 40 | −2.1% | −6.0% to −0.3% (92%) | −5.2% to +3.1% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 39 of 40 | −10.5% | −14.4% to +5.7% (95%) | −12.6% to +3.6% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 37 of 40 | −26.2% | −30.8% to −15.0% (90%) | −28.1% to −3.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 26 Oct 2020, for comparison | 7 | 2,162 days | −0.8% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 2,139 days | −5.5% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 2,079 days | −17.3% | – | – | – | |
| All tracked coins on the same dates as the bullish flips | 7 | 41 flips on 41 days | −0.6% | −4.0% to +2.0% (95%) | 47% up | – |
| 30 | 39 flips on 39 days | +2.2% | −8.4% to +9.1% (95%) | 52% up | – | |
| 90 | 37 flips on 37 days | −10.9% | −31.8% to +3.3% (95%) | 42% up | – | |
| All tracked coins on the same dates as the bearish flips | 7 | 40 flips on 40 days | −2.4% | −5.0% to 0.0% (95%) | 41% up | – |
| 30 | 39 flips on 39 days | −10.4% | −17.3% to −2.2% (95%) | 37% up | – | |
| 90 | 37 flips on 37 days | −20.4% | −29.2% to −2.4% (95%) | 36% up | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
Same dates: for each flip, the median result of all tracked coins over the same days, and the share of them that ended up. These are medians and shares; by averages the picture can differ. Coins move together, so flips on the same days count as fewer independent periods than flips.
Their range is where the median lands 95 times in 100 when whole calendar months of flips are drawn again at random. With fewer than 30 independent periods or 30 months behind a row, its median and range say too few independent periods to compare.
The latest seven flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are daily closes on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
What we tested
We tested 56 different settings and filters for the trend line, on daily and weekly candles (100 rule-and-timeframe combinations), on 129 coins that have at least three years of history (128 excluding Bitcoin for the setting grid). Hourly (4h) and monthly lines and the Bitcoin-priced lines were not tested. Out of sample means January 2022 to October 2026: one mostly falling stretch, with survivors only.
For altcoins on daily candles, after 2022, settings from factor 2 to 3 gave similar results (30-day gap between what followed bullish and bearish changes 2.4 to 5.0 points, against 3.4 for the published setting; none of the 90-day differences was clear). Before 2022 the published setting was at the low end of that range, and a factor 1.5 line was clearly worse in both periods. For Bitcoin, one series with 45 daily flips since 2022, the evidence is too thin to defend or replace its setting. That the published setting sat in a flat area does not show it was chosen without hindsight.
Rules that wait for extra closes, demand a margin beyond the line, or use a slower factor changed the label less often or later. They did not clearly raise how well it separated what followed after 2022, and the margin rules fell further from the peak before turning bearish. Rules that go neutral when the trend looks weak (ADX, Choppiness, efficiency ratio) made the label change more often, not less (daily: 15 to 86 changes per coin-year against 14), and the flips they let through were followed by much the same results as the rest.
For altcoins on weekly candles the published setting sits next to a cliff: a wider band changed state later and separated what followed less (90-day gap down 12 to 26 points; the calendar-based intervals are wide, 19 quarters). Bitcoin's weekly line has only 4 flips since 2022 and shows no such pattern.
Coins change state together: on 69% of coin-days a coin's daily state matched Bitcoin's (about 50% would be expected by chance; 63% to 65% in 2025 and 2026, 80% in 2022). After 2022 the 30-day median gap between bullish and bearish changes was +3.3 points, but 'about zero' (-0.2, range -0.7 to +0.2) once each change is compared with all coins on the same dates. That holds for medians; by averages the same-date gap is +2.4 points [0.2, 5.2], driven by a few large rises. The calendar-based range of the raw gap includes zero.
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
The study's notes and tables are kept with the project's research files.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 41 | 2 of 41 |
| After bearish flips | 40 | 0 of 40 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Polkadot's daily line has flipped 13.6 times a year since 26 Oct 2020.
Polkadot, daily flips: 81 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026Lasted 15 days so far | Bull | $1.13 | +7.0% | not yet | not yet | +4.5% so far |
| 13 Sep 2026Lasted 5 days | Bear | $0.9990 | +13.6% | not yet | not yet | +13.5% |
| 6 Sep 2026Lasted 7 days | Bull | $0.9790 | +2.0% | not yet | not yet | +2.0% |
| 25 Aug 2026Lasted 12 days | Bear | $0.8520 | +2.3% | +35.7% | not yet | +14.9% |
| 20 Aug 2026Lasted 5 days | Bull | $0.8480 | +3.9% | +32.5% | not yet | +0.5% |
| 12 Aug 2026Lasted 8 days | Bear | $0.7740 | +1.9% | +34.5% | not yet | +9.6% |
| 4 Aug 2026Lasted 8 days | Bull | $0.8570 | −7.7% | +3.7% | not yet | −9.7% |
| 17 May 2026Lasted 79 days | Bear | $1.25 | −0.3% | −19.0% | −39.0% | −31.4% |
| 16 Apr 2026Lasted 31 days | Bull | $1.33 | −6.6% | −4.6% | −36.3% | −5.9% |
| 22 Mar 2026Lasted 25 days | Bear | $1.41 | −10.8% | −9.5% | −31.4% | −5.9% |
| 25 Feb 2026Lasted 25 days | Bull | $1.66 | −7.3% | −22.3% | −24.9% | −15.0% |
| 20 Jan 2026Lasted 36 days | Bear | $1.90 | −1.1% | −32.2% | −32.5% | −12.3% |
| 1 Jan 2026Lasted 19 days | Bull | $2.00 | +5.6% | −22.6% | −37.2% | −5.1% |
| 17 Nov 2025Lasted 45 days | Bear | $2.67 | −12.2% | −31.9% | −49.1% | −25.0% |
| 7 Nov 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | $3.25 | −13.5% | −35.6% | −61.6% | −18.1% |
| 10 Oct 2025Lasted 28 days | Bear | $2.95 | −1.8% | +9.7% | −28.3% | +10.5% |
| 6 Oct 2025Lasted 4 days | Bull | $4.40 | −23.3% | −39.2% | −51.3% | −33.0% |
| 22 Sep 2025Lasted 14 days | Bear | $4.04 | −1.4% | −27.7% | −55.4% | +8.9% |
| 10 Sep 2025Lasted 12 days | Bull | $4.22 | +4.4% | −30.1% | −45.6% | −4.2% |
| 1 Sep 2025Lasted 9 days | Bear | $3.69 | +9.5% | +11.7% | −40.2% | +14.2% |
| 9 Aug 2025Lasted 23 days | Bull | $4.14 | −4.2% | −2.2% | −21.4% | −10.8% |
| 24 Jul 2025Lasted 16 days | Bear | $4.00 | −8.0% | +5.7% | −27.0% | +3.4% |
| 10 Jul 2025Lasted 14 days | Bull | $3.88 | +9.8% | +6.6% | +8.1% | +3.1% |
| 23 May 2025Lasted 48 days | Bear | $4.56 | −11.2% | −30.9% | −16.8% | −14.9% |
| 23 Apr 2025Lasted 30 days | Bull | $4.09 | −0.7% | +11.4% | +11.1% | +11.4% |
| 19 Jan 2025Lasted 94 days | Bear | $6.25 | −1.1% | −23.7% | −37.9% | −34.5% |
| 17 Jan 2025Lasted 2 days | Bull | $7.50 | −15.8% | −35.0% | −51.6% | −16.7% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 39 days | Bear | $8.47 | +3.4% | −20.2% | −52.5% | −11.4% |
| 7 Nov 2024Lasted 32 days | Bull | $4.16 | +14.7% | +154.4% | +12.6% | +103.4% |
| 25 Oct 2024Lasted 13 days | Bear | $4.00 | −2.2% | +120.8% | +58.9% | +4.2% |
| 15 Oct 2024Lasted 10 days | Bull | $4.41 | −1.9% | +8.4% | +45.2% | −9.3% |
| 30 Sep 2024Lasted 15 days | Bear | $4.43 | −6.8% | −5.4% | +54.9% | −0.6% |
| 21 Sep 2024Lasted 9 days | Bull | $4.46 | +7.4% | −1.9% | +63.4% | −0.7% |
| 27 Aug 2024Lasted 25 days | Bear | $4.38 | −7.2% | +10.0% | +88.0% | +1.9% |
| 23 Aug 2024Lasted 4 days | Bull | $4.89 | −12.6% | −11.9% | +21.2% | −10.5% |
| 29 Jul 2024Lasted 25 days | Bear | $5.65 | −25.7% | −24.7% | −26.9% | −13.4% |
| 14 Jul 2024Lasted 15 days | Bull | $6.32 | +1.7% | −28.1% | −33.5% | −10.6% |
| 4 Jul 2024Lasted 10 days | Bear | $5.56 | +6.2% | −9.2% | −26.2% | +13.8% |
| 27 Jun 2024Lasted 7 days | Bull | $6.29 | −11.6% | −7.3% | −26.2% | −11.6% |
| 7 Jun 2024Lasted 20 days | Bear | $6.66 | −7.4% | −11.2% | −39.6% | −5.6% |
| 20 May 2024Lasted 18 days | Bull | $7.58 | +0.9% | −23.4% | −42.0% | −12.1% |
| 19 Mar 2024Lasted 62 days | Bear | $8.77 | +10.5% | −22.6% | −30.8% | −13.6% |
| 12 Feb 2024Lasted 36 days | Bull | $7.34 | +9.4% | +55.0% | −9.9% | +19.4% |
| 5 Jan 2024Lasted 38 days | Bear | $7.45 | +1.6% | −10.5% | +13.9% | −1.5% |
| 5 Dec 2023Lasted 31 days | Bull | $5.91 | +20.7% | +33.4% | +67.0% | +26.1% |
| 21 Nov 2023Lasted 14 days | Bear | $4.86 | +8.6% | +73.3% | +65.3% | +21.6% |
| 21 Oct 2023Lasted 31 days | Bull | $3.91 | +7.0% | +35.6% | +76.4% | +24.3% |
| 9 Oct 2023Lasted 12 days | Bear | $3.88 | −2.7% | +29.7% | +77.8% | +0.7% |
| 1 Oct 2023Lasted 8 days | Bull | $4.26 | −5.9% | +4.4% | +95.8% | −9.0% |
| 3 Aug 2023Lasted 59 days | Bear | $4.98 | +0.5% | −14.4% | −5.1% | −14.4% |
| 23 Jun 2023Lasted 41 days | Bull | $5.10 | +1.6% | +5.7% | −21.3% | −2.3% |
| 20 Apr 2023Lasted 64 days | Bear | $6.11 | −2.3% | −11.5% | −15.0% | −16.6% |
| 14 Mar 2023Lasted 37 days | Bull | $6.22 | +2.2% | +6.6% | −27.1% | −1.8% |
| 25 Feb 2023Lasted 17 days | Bear | $6.54 | −9.6% | −10.3% | −19.9% | −4.9% |
| 4 Jan 2023Lasted 52 days | Bull | $4.63 | +10.9% | +51.3% | +39.0% | +41.3% |
| 8 Nov 2022Lasted 57 days | Bear | $6.30 | −6.0% | −14.0% | +3.1% | −26.5% |
| 25 Oct 2022Lasted 14 days | Bull | $6.43 | +0.5% | −16.2% | +2.0% | −2.0% |
| 18 Aug 2022Lasted 68 days | Bear | $8.08 | −6.2% | −12.6% | −29.3% | −20.4% |
| 18 Jul 2022Lasted 31 days | Bull | $7.66 | −11.7% | +9.3% | −19.3% | +5.5% |
| 6 Apr 2022Lasted 103 days | Bear | $19.85 | −8.3% | −27.9% | −65.5% | −61.4% |
| 28 Feb 2022Lasted 37 days | Bull | $18.94 | −13.4% | +18.5% | −47.3% | +4.8% |
| 17 Feb 2022Lasted 11 days | Bear | $18.16 | −11.0% | +6.8% | −47.7% | +4.3% |
| 7 Feb 2022Lasted 10 days | Bull | $22.35 | −16.3% | −20.1% | −40.7% | −18.7% |
| 31 Dec 2021Lasted 38 days | Bear | $26.66 | −6.6% | −31.9% | −20.0% | −16.2% |
| 26 Dec 2021Lasted 5 days | Bull | $31.32 | −5.2% | −41.5% | −33.2% | −14.9% |
| 15 Nov 2021Lasted 41 days | Bear | $44.77 | −11.8% | −39.4% | −58.2% | −30.0% |
| 9 Oct 2021Lasted 37 days | Bull | $36.33 | +14.9% | +46.9% | −31.5% | +23.2% |
| 20 Sep 2021Lasted 19 days | Bear | $28.31 | −2.1% | +56.9% | −12.5% | +28.3% |
| 12 Sep 2021Lasted 8 days | Bull | $35.79 | −5.4% | −1.7% | −22.3% | −20.9% |
| 7 Sep 2021Lasted 5 days | Bear | $27.97 | +33.6% | +21.5% | +0.6% | +28.0% |
| 24 Jul 2021Lasted 45 days | Bull | $13.75 | +22.0% | +102.7% | +216.3% | +103.4% |
| 19 May 2021Lasted 66 days | Bear | $25.04 | −2.1% | −14.4% | −6.0% | −45.1% |
| 5 May 2021Lasted 14 days | Bull | $40.42 | −13.1% | −38.2% | −56.9% | −38.0% |
| 19 Apr 2021Lasted 16 days | Bear | $34.74 | −3.8% | −27.9% | −63.6% | +16.4% |
| 31 Mar 2021Lasted 19 days | Bull | $37.08 | +6.5% | −1.5% | −56.0% | −6.3% |
| 25 Feb 2021Lasted 34 days | Bear | $31.23 | +12.8% | +4.3% | −21.5% | +18.7% |
| 28 Dec 2020Lasted 59 days | Bull | $6.60 | +44.2% | +133.9% | +388.5% | +373.4% |
| 26 Nov 2020Lasted 32 days | Bear | $4.81 | +12.3% | +8.0% | +599.5% | +37.2% |
| 6 Nov 2020Lasted 20 days | Bull | $4.58 | −0.9% | +11.9% | +329.2% | +4.9% |
| 29 Oct 2020Lasted 8 days | Bear | $4.06 | +4.0% | +20.5% | +280.0% | +12.9% |
| 26 Oct 2020Lasted 3 days | Bull | $4.70 | −14.3% | +12.7% | +282.2% | −13.7% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 26 Oct 2020, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
81 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.