Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Polymesh's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 30 of 30 | −4.5% | −5.1% to −0.2% (90%) | −5.4% to +1.4% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 29 of 30 | −7.0% | −14.3% to −1.8% (94%) | −14.1% to +0.4% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 29 of 30 | −26.5% | −33.5% to −1.8% (94%) | −29.0% to −10.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 30 of 30 | −2.6% | −6.4% to 0.0% (90%) | −5.4% to +1.4% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 30 of 30 | −6.7% | −14.2% to +3.3% (90%) | −14.4% to −0.6% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 30 of 30 | −25.2% | −29.9% to −22.1% (90%) | −29.8% to −12.0% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 12 Dec 2022, for comparison | 7 | 1,384 days | −1.8% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 1,361 days | −7.6% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,301 days | −20.2% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest flip is too recent to count in the 30 and 90 day columns.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 30 | 2 of 30 |
| After bearish flips | 30 | 4 of 30 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Polymesh's daily line has flipped 15.8 times a year since 12 Dec 2022.
Polymesh, daily flips: 60 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Sep 2026Lasted 26 days so far | Bull | 0.0000004668 BTC | +9.6% | not yet | not yet | +7.7% so far |
| 28 May 2026Lasted 101 days | Bear | 0.0000006670 BTC | −0.5% | −12.3% | −33.8% | −30.0% |
| 8 May 2026Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.0000006858 BTC | +1.4% | −8.8% | −26.8% | −2.8% |
| 21 Apr 2026Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.0000006642 BTC | −2.4% | +6.1% | −13.7% | +3.3% |
| 17 Mar 2026Lasted 35 days | Bull | 0.0000007279 BTC | −6.5% | −2.0% | −14.7% | −8.8% |
| 3 Mar 2026Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.0000006087 BTC | −4.9% | +9.5% | +12.0% | +19.6% |
| 14 Feb 2026Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.0000006774 BTC | −5.1% | −17.0% | +2.6% | −10.1% |
| 20 Jan 2026Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.0000006355 BTC | −2.3% | +3.3% | +5.6% | +6.6% |
| 22 Dec 2025Lasted 29 days | Bull | 0.0000006556 BTC | −11.7% | −0.1% | −0.9% | −3.1% |
| 1 Dec 2025Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.0000007139 BTC | −7.9% | −6.7% | −10.6% | −8.2% |
| 8 Nov 2025Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.0000007673 BTC | −0.1% | −14.3% | −16.7% | −7.0% |
| 22 Sep 2025Lasted 47 days | Bear | 0.000001103 BTC | −6.1% | −29.6% | −50.9% | −30.5% |
| 13 Sep 2025Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.000001222 BTC | −4.5% | −29.8% | −47.6% | −9.7% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 52 days | Bear | 0.000001309 BTC | −6.4% | −9.2% | −40.1% | −6.7% |
| 12 Jul 2025Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000001266 BTC | +7.0% | −7.0% | −41.9% | +3.5% |
| 17 May 2025Lasted 56 days | Bear | 0.000001554 BTC | −2.6% | −21.0% | −25.2% | −18.6% |
| 10 May 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000001638 BTC | −5.1% | −18.8% | −24.6% | −5.1% |
| 30 Apr 2025Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.000001614 BTC | −9.8% | −18.6% | −22.2% | +1.5% |
| 11 Apr 2025Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.000001636 BTC | +5.9% | −2.3% | −26.5% | −1.4% |
| 5 Apr 2025Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.000001527 BTC | +10.2% | −0.6% | −25.1% | +7.1% |
| 25 Mar 2025Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000001714 BTC | −4.2% | +0.4% | −30.3% | −10.9% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 106 days | Bear | 0.000003357 BTC | −4.3% | −13.8% | −52.7% | −48.9% |
| 16 Nov 2024Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.000003430 BTC | +1.4% | −6.3% | −44.1% | −2.1% |
| 13 Nov 2024Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.000002846 BTC | +9.8% | +27.2% | −34.4% | +20.5% |
| 10 Nov 2024Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.000003223 BTC | −2.0% | +7.4% | −42.9% | −11.7% |
| 25 Oct 2024Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.000003367 BTC | −6.4% | +4.2% | −30.0% | −4.3% |
| 21 Oct 2024Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.000003911 BTC | −15.8% | −20.1% | −37.0% | −13.9% |
| 1 Oct 2024Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.000003769 BTC | 0.0% | −15.7% | −22.9% | +3.8% |
| 8 Sep 2024Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.000003886 BTC | −5.6% | −3.0% | +3.2% | −3.0% |
| 31 Aug 2024Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.000003576 BTC | +5.5% | +9.1% | +9.4% | +8.7% |
| 22 Aug 2024Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.000003790 BTC | −3.4% | +11.5% | −17.6% | −5.6% |
| 14 Jun 2024Lasted 69 days | Bear | 0.000006375 BTC | −15.2% | −34.3% | −39.1% | −40.6% |
| 18 May 2024Lasted 27 days | Bull | 0.000006824 BTC | −4.7% | −24.5% | −49.4% | −6.6% |
| 13 Apr 2024Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.000006067 BTC | +19.4% | +3.8% | −28.8% | +12.5% |
| 20 Mar 2024Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.000005028 BTC | +71.1% | +40.6% | −1.8% | +20.7% |
| 16 Mar 2024Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.000003403 BTC | +83.9% | +109.3% | +87.3% | +47.8% |
| 2 Mar 2024Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.000003593 BTC | +12.0% | +133.9% | +69.4% | −5.3% |
| 28 Feb 2024Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.000003109 BTC | +14.1% | +135.9% | +106.2% | +15.6% |
| 17 Feb 2024Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.000003681 BTC | −0.2% | −12.6% | +72.9% | −15.5% |
| 7 Jan 2024Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.000004293 BTC | −7.1% | −15.4% | +81.0% | −14.3% |
| 5 Jan 2024Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.000004612 BTC | −14.9% | −23.8% | +75.7% | −6.9% |
| 31 Oct 2023Lasted 66 days | Bear | 0.000007154 BTC | −17.2% | −26.9% | −48.1% | −35.5% |
| 24 Oct 2023Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.000007573 BTC | −5.5% | −30.5% | −48.4% | −5.5% |
| 21 Oct 2023Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.000005376 BTC | +49.3% | +2.7% | −25.9% | +40.9% |
| 21 Aug 2023Lasted 61 days | Bull | 0.000004302 BTC | −4.8% | +0.5% | +30.2% | +25.0% |
| 9 Aug 2023Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.000004357 BTC | −9.3% | −5.5% | +36.0% | −1.3% |
| 11 Jul 2023Lasted 29 days | Bull | 0.000004461 BTC | +2.4% | −1.7% | +1.3% | −2.3% |
| 28 Jun 2023Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.000003946 BTC | +6.4% | +19.0% | +11.7% | +13.0% |
| 24 Jun 2023Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.000004409 BTC | −5.3% | +4.0% | −0.7% | −10.5% |
| 24 Apr 2023Lasted 61 days | Bear | 0.000007433 BTC | −16.8% | −25.7% | −35.8% | −40.7% |
| 20 Apr 2023Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.00001034 BTC | −37.3% | −43.3% | −55.3% | −28.1% |
| 11 Apr 2023Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.000005970 BTC | −2.3% | −3.8% | −29.9% | +73.2% |
| 5 Apr 2023Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000006376 BTC | −8.5% | −7.0% | −33.1% | −6.4% |
| 3 Mar 2023Lasted 33 days | Bear | 0.000008016 BTC | −12.3% | −26.7% | −34.3% | −20.5% |
| 16 Feb 2023Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.000009138 BTC | −2.6% | −30.3% | −37.7% | −12.3% |
| 13 Feb 2023Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.000008065 BTC | +4.7% | −19.4% | −29.9% | +13.3% |
| 4 Feb 2023Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.000008925 BTC | −4.9% | −13.0% | −33.5% | −9.6% |
| 30 Jan 2023Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.000007947 BTC | +14.3% | +9.4% | −22.1% | +12.3% |
| 15 Jan 2023Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.000008231 BTC | +0.5% | −1.8% | −28.6% | −3.5% |
| 12 Dec 2022Lasted 34 days | Bear | 0.000008931 BTC | −8.9% | −14.2% | −24.5% | −7.8% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 12 Dec 2022, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
60 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.