Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Quant's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 35 of 35 | −0.7% | −3.4% to +3.4% (91%) | −4.2% to +0.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 34 of 35 | −4.0% | −10.1% to +0.7% (94%) | −11.4% to +0.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 33 of 35 | −12.6% | −18.3% to −2.7% (92%) | −20.7% to −0.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 35 of 35 | −0.6% | −3.2% to +1.7% (91%) | −4.2% to +0.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 34 of 35 | −9.1% | −12.5% to −3.1% (94%) | −11.4% to +0.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 33 of 35 | −15.1% | −24.5% to −0.7% (92%) | −20.7% to −0.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 4 Oct 2021, for comparison | 7 | 1,819 days | −1.9% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 1,796 days | −5.7% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,736 days | −11.6% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest four flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 35 | 2 of 35 |
| After bearish flips | 35 | 3 of 35 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Quant's daily line has flipped 14.0 times a year since 4 Oct 2021.
Quant, daily flips: 70 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep 2026Lasted 11 days so far | Bull | 0.0008566 BTC | +272.3% | not yet | not yet | +253.9% so far |
| 17 Sep 2026Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.0008009 BTC | +33.3% | not yet | not yet | +7.0% |
| 1 Sep 2026Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.0008217 BTC | +4.0% | +252.0% | not yet | −2.5% |
| 6 Jul 2026Lasted 57 days | Bear | 0.001033 BTC | +0.7% | −10.6% | not yet | −20.5% |
| 8 May 2026Lasted 59 days | Bull | 0.0009143 BTC | +8.7% | +20.1% | +1.0% | +13.0% |
| 14 Apr 2026Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.0009970 BTC | −3.2% | −3.1% | +4.4% | −8.3% |
| 18 Mar 2026Lasted 27 days | Bull | 0.001038 BTC | +3.4% | −3.9% | +3.9% | −4.0% |
| 22 Feb 2026Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.0009476 BTC | −0.6% | +14.3% | +9.5% | +9.5% |
| 17 Jan 2026Lasted 36 days | Bull | 0.0008871 BTC | −0.2% | +14.1% | +12.5% | +6.8% |
| 14 Jan 2026Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.0007705 BTC | +16.8% | +32.4% | +29.4% | +15.1% |
| 2 Jan 2026Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.0008799 BTC | −5.8% | +0.5% | +25.0% | −12.4% |
| 7 Dec 2025Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.0009671 BTC | −9.9% | −12.5% | −0.7% | −9.0% |
| 5 Nov 2025Lasted 32 days | Bull | 0.0008289 BTC | −2.8% | +22.1% | +5.1% | +16.7% |
| 10 Oct 2025Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.0007512 BTC | +2.3% | +6.3% | +9.3% | +10.3% |
| 26 Sep 2025Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.0008716 BTC | −0.7% | −15.8% | −4.9% | −13.8% |
| 24 Jul 2025Lasted 64 days | Bear | 0.001011 BTC | −1.3% | −6.2% | −25.6% | −13.8% |
| 28 Jun 2025Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.001025 BTC | −3.5% | +0.7% | −15.0% | −1.4% |
| 13 Jun 2025Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.001008 BTC | −7.4% | −4.0% | −13.2% | +1.7% |
| 26 May 2025Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.0009574 BTC | +6.4% | −5.0% | −3.1% | +5.3% |
| 25 May 2025Lasted 1 day | Bear | 0.0008705 BTC | +15.9% | +7.9% | +9.0% | +10.0% |
| 26 Apr 2025Lasted 29 days | Bull | 0.0008095 BTC | +8.0% | +18.3% | +26.8% | +7.5% |
| 4 Mar 2025Lasted 53 days | Bear | 0.001008 BTC | −9.0% | −18.7% | +1.0% | −19.7% |
| 25 Feb 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.001137 BTC | −11.3% | −23.5% | −15.8% | −11.3% |
| 15 Dec 2024Lasted 72 days | Bear | 0.001344 BTC | −18.0% | −19.1% | −30.5% | −15.4% |
| 16 Nov 2024Lasted 29 days | Bull | 0.0009659 BTC | +5.4% | +29.9% | +1.0% | +39.1% |
| 17 Sep 2024Lasted 60 days | Bear | 0.001154 BTC | +4.6% | −17.1% | +8.8% | −16.3% |
| 22 Aug 2024Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.001120 BTC | −2.8% | +5.7% | −16.7% | +3.1% |
| 18 Jul 2024Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.001185 BTC | −7.8% | −10.2% | −17.5% | −5.5% |
| 28 Jun 2024Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.001268 BTC | +3.1% | −17.2% | −4.0% | −6.5% |
| 6 May 2024Lasted 53 days | Bear | 0.001555 BTC | −1.8% | −18.1% | −33.6% | −18.5% |
| 17 Apr 2024Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.001661 BTC | +0.9% | −12.0% | −26.6% | −6.4% |
| 3 Apr 2024Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.001799 BTC | −8.0% | −6.4% | −28.2% | −7.7% |
| 24 Mar 2024Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.002010 BTC | −7.7% | −18.2% | −41.7% | −10.5% |
| 9 Mar 2024Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.001764 BTC | +7.1% | −3.1% | −29.5% | +14.0% |
| 2 Mar 2024Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.002058 BTC | −14.3% | −11.4% | −34.8% | −14.3% |
| 3 Jan 2024Lasted 59 days | Bear | 0.002922 BTC | −6.5% | −18.6% | −37.6% | −29.6% |
| 22 Dec 2023Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.002666 BTC | +19.6% | +1.8% | −28.9% | +9.6% |
| 21 Dec 2023Lasted 1 day | Bear | 0.002474 BTC | +28.9% | +11.4% | −26.8% | +7.8% |
| 11 Dec 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.002717 BTC | −5.6% | +0.6% | −36.8% | −9.0% |
| 2 Nov 2023Lasted 39 days | Bear | 0.002842 BTC | +2.8% | −9.4% | −15.1% | −4.4% |
| 22 Oct 2023Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.003154 BTC | −3.4% | −15.6% | −12.6% | −9.9% |
| 29 Aug 2023Lasted 54 days | Bear | 0.003655 BTC | +5.7% | −9.1% | −27.3% | −13.7% |
| 17 Aug 2023Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.003647 BTC | +4.9% | −5.5% | −24.5% | +0.2% |
| 3 Aug 2023Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.003504 BTC | −1.3% | +10.0% | −16.0% | +4.1% |
| 24 Jul 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.003541 BTC | +5.7% | +6.9% | −10.9% | −1.0% |
| 19 Jun 2023Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.003718 BTC | −5.8% | −9.7% | −7.8% | −4.8% |
| 16 Jun 2023Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.004255 BTC | −19.0% | −22.1% | −18.3% | −12.6% |
| 9 Jun 2023Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.004052 BTC | +5.0% | −16.3% | −5.2% | +5.0% |
| 29 May 2023Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.004045 BTC | +7.4% | −15.3% | −2.7% | +0.2% |
| 27 Apr 2023Lasted 32 days | Bear | 0.003827 BTC | +1.7% | −1.2% | −8.9% | +5.7% |
| 22 Apr 2023Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.004077 BTC | −1.2% | −7.3% | −16.0% | −6.1% |
| 13 Mar 2023Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.005238 BTC | −13.2% | −22.3% | −24.5% | −22.2% |
| 10 Mar 2023Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.005950 BTC | −19.1% | −27.9% | −29.7% | −12.0% |
| 12 Jan 2023Lasted 57 days | Bear | 0.006500 BTC | −0.6% | −5.7% | −37.4% | −8.5% |
| 27 Dec 2022Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.006866 BTC | −6.1% | −5.6% | −36.3% | −5.3% |
| 19 Oct 2022Lasted 69 days | Bear | 0.009015 BTC | −7.3% | −21.0% | −25.5% | −23.8% |
| 8 Sep 2022Lasted 41 days | Bull | 0.005274 BTC | −0.1% | +45.3% | +32.0% | +70.9% |
| 15 Aug 2022Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.004706 BTC | +6.4% | +3.9% | +32.5% | +12.1% |
| 6 Aug 2022Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.005237 BTC | −1.1% | −10.1% | +48.5% | −10.1% |
| 20 Jul 2022Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.004155 BTC | +1.5% | +14.7% | +129.2% | +26.0% |
| 13 Jun 2022Lasted 37 days | Bull | 0.002210 BTC | +21.2% | +89.2% | +125.3% | +88.0% |
| 26 May 2022Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.002171 BTC | +3.6% | +35.9% | +132.6% | +1.8% |
| 12 May 2022Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.002525 BTC | −10.7% | −23.4% | +109.6% | −14.0% |
| 6 Apr 2022Lasted 36 days | Bear | 0.002877 BTC | −2.3% | −13.0% | +3.2% | −12.2% |
| 4 Mar 2022Lasted 33 days | Bull | 0.003027 BTC | −3.5% | −0.5% | −25.7% | −5.0% |
| 18 Feb 2022Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.002842 BTC | +0.9% | +1.1% | −20.6% | +6.5% |
| 2 Feb 2022Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.003073 BTC | +10.0% | −1.5% | −19.8% | −7.5% |
| 18 Jan 2022Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.003447 BTC | −18.9% | −14.7% | −20.8% | −10.8% |
| 11 Dec 2021Lasted 38 days | Bull | 0.004149 BTC | −4.5% | −4.0% | −29.6% | −16.9% |
| 4 Oct 2021Lasted 68 days | Bear | 0.006206 BTC | −19.1% | −31.6% | −36.2% | −33.2% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 4 Oct 2021, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
70 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.