Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Render's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 17 of 17 | −1.9% | −5.9% to +10.5% (95%) | −6.6% to +3.0% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 15 of 17 | +8.0% | −21.5% to +19.7% (96%) | −16.6% to +6.6% | outside the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 15 of 17 | −15.6% | −36.6% to +6.2% (96%) | −31.6% to +2.4% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 17 of 17 | −2.3% | −6.6% to +2.4% (95%) | −6.6% to +3.0% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 16 of 17 | −7.8% | −23.5% to −1.9% (92%) | −17.5% to +2.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 16 of 17 | −22.5% | −34.1% to +3.7% (92%) | −32.9% to +0.1% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 31 Aug 2024, for comparison | 7 | 757 days | −2.3% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 734 days | −6.8% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 674 days | −14.1% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest three flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are daily closes of the native RENDER/BTC market on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 17 | 0 of 17 |
| After bearish flips | 17 | 0 of 17 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Render's daily line has flipped 16.3 times a year since 31 Aug 2024.
Render, daily flips: 34 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026Lasted 15 days so far | Bull | 0.00001912 BTC | +21.1% | not yet | not yet | +22.6% so far |
| 12 Sep 2026Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00001787 BTC | +8.6% | not yet | not yet | +7.0% |
| 6 Sep 2026Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00001944 BTC | −8.5% | not yet | not yet | −8.1% |
| 5 Jun 2026Lasted 93 days | Bear | 0.00002756 BTC | −5.6% | −7.8% | −34.4% | −29.5% |
| 6 May 2026Lasted 30 days | Bull | 0.00002410 BTC | −2.0% | +14.4% | −13.1% | +14.4% |
| 14 Apr 2026Lasted 22 days | Bear | 0.00002474 BTC | −5.0% | −5.3% | −3.3% | −2.6% |
| 11 Mar 2026Lasted 34 days | Bull | 0.00002176 BTC | +12.9% | +26.4% | +20.2% | +13.7% |
| 4 Mar 2026Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.00001944 BTC | +11.9% | +48.8% | +57.1% | +11.9% |
| 14 Feb 2026Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.00002166 BTC | −0.9% | +19.7% | +9.8% | −10.2% |
| 18 Jan 2026Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.00002214 BTC | −2.3% | −3.2% | +5.9% | −2.2% |
| 2 Jan 2026Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00001686 BTC | +53.9% | +15.4% | +66.0% | +31.3% |
| 29 Nov 2025Lasted 34 days | Bear | 0.00001940 BTC | −7.5% | −23.5% | +10.7% | −13.1% |
| 7 Nov 2025Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.00002357 BTC | −5.9% | −25.9% | −15.6% | −17.7% |
| 3 Nov 2025Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.00001876 BTC | +26.7% | +0.2% | +3.7% | +25.6% |
| 12 Oct 2025Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.00002375 BTC | −1.9% | −5.2% | +6.2% | −21.0% |
| 23 Sep 2025Lasted 19 days | Bear | 0.00003206 BTC | −8.8% | −30.3% | −54.7% | −25.9% |
| 9 Sep 2025Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.00003392 BTC | −2.3% | −21.5% | −46.7% | −5.5% |
| 29 Jul 2025Lasted 42 days | Bear | 0.00003324 BTC | −6.9% | −1.9% | −34.1% | +2.0% |
| 10 Jul 2025Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.00003161 BTC | +10.5% | +8.0% | −14.0% | +5.2% |
| 19 May 2025Lasted 52 days | Bear | 0.00004338 BTC | −0.2% | −28.4% | −22.5% | −27.1% |
| 10 May 2025Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00005217 BTC | −15.9% | −29.3% | −36.6% | −16.8% |
| 6 May 2025Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.00004459 BTC | +14.3% | −21.5% | −27.9% | +17.0% |
| 10 Apr 2025Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.00004348 BTC | +8.9% | +20.0% | −30.6% | +2.6% |
| 2 Apr 2025Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.00004040 BTC | +1.2% | +23.9% | −27.9% | +7.6% |
| 24 Mar 2025Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00004330 BTC | −4.7% | +10.4% | −35.9% | −6.7% |
| 9 Mar 2025Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.00003757 BTC | +0.2% | −1.9% | −2.3% | +15.3% |
| 2 Mar 2025Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.00004703 BTC | −20.1% | −7.7% | −21.2% | −20.1% |
| 13 Jan 2025Lasted 48 days | Bear | 0.00007382 BTC | −10.9% | −35.6% | −38.9% | −36.3% |
| 5 Jan 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00008417 BTC | −10.5% | −43.9% | −55.0% | −12.3% |
| 16 Dec 2024Lasted 20 days | Bear | 0.00008399 BTC | −4.0% | −9.0% | −55.2% | +0.2% |
| 11 Nov 2024Lasted 35 days | Bull | 0.00007815 BTC | +8.4% | +21.5% | −43.6% | +7.5% |
| 2 Oct 2024Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.00008949 BTC | −6.6% | −24.5% | −18.9% | −12.7% |
| 21 Sep 2024Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00008852 BTC | +12.1% | −12.1% | −14.8% | +1.1% |
| 31 Aug 2024Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.00008477 BTC | +2.4% | +20.0% | +5.7% | +4.4% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 31 Aug 2024, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
34 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.