Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Render's 4-hour flips
After bullish flips the median price was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 97 of 98 | −3.3% | −5.0% to −1.3% (93%) | −4.4% to +1.2% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 94 of 98 | −5.9% | −11.3% to +1.0% (92%) | −11.2% to +2.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 88 of 98 | −15.1% | −20.9% to −5.2% (93%) | −19.6% to −4.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 96 of 97 | −1.8% | −4.3% to +0.5% (92%) | −4.7% to +1.0% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 93 of 97 | −3.7% | −12.6% to +2.2% (90%) | −10.8% to +2.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 87 of 97 | −16.0% | −19.4% to −7.0% (91%) | −19.4% to −4.2% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 6 Aug 2024, for comparison | 7 | 782 days | −1.7% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 759 days | −3.9% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 699 days | −13.2% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest 20 flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are 4-hour closes on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (12 hours) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 98 | 2 of 97 |
| After bearish flips | 97 | 1 of 97 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 12 hours. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Render's 4-hour line has flipped 90.3 times a year since 6 Aug 2024, 08:00 UTC.
On 4-hour candles the line flips often, and nearly every flip is reversed within 30 days, so the 7-, 30- and 90-day columns mostly show where the market drifted, not what the flip did.
Render, 4-hour flips: 97 bearish flips of 195
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hours | Bear | $1.92 | not yet | not yet | not yet | +4.9% |
| 23 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | $1.71 | +11.6% | not yet | not yet | +9.8% |
| 9 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 7 days 20 hours | Bear | $1.48 | −10.8% | not yet | not yet | −7.7% |
| 4 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | $1.42 | −1.7% | not yet | not yet | +7.0% |
| 28 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 5 days 20 hours | Bear | $1.44 | +1.9% | +37.9% | not yet | +2.8% |
| 22 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bear | $1.44 | +0.3% | +20.1% | not yet | +6.0% |
| 28 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 22 days 16 hours | Bear | $1.41 | −3.5% | +8.6% | not yet | −7.6% |
| 22 Jul 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bear | $1.51 | −6.1% | −7.3% | not yet | −2.0% |
| 16 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bear | $1.50 | +0.8% | −15.6% | not yet | +1.1% |
| 8 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 7 days 12 hours | Bear | $1.56 | −2.3% | −14.1% | not yet | −1.8% |
| 30 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bear | $1.51 | +6.9% | −7.4% | +35.9% | +4.6% |
| 16 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 10 days 12 hours | Bear | $1.73 | −5.6% | −11.7% | −21.0% | −6.6% |
| 4 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 7 days 16 hours | Bear | $1.93 | −21.4% | −16.5% | −26.1% | −15.4% |
| 28 May 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hours | Bear | $2.12 | +1.4% | −25.8% | −29.1% | +4.3% |
| 22 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bear | $1.88 | +6.1% | −8.6% | −27.3% | +2.3% |
| 11 May 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 9 days 4 hours | Bear | $1.96 | −8.5% | −17.7% | −32.5% | −5.4% |
| 27 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days | Bear | $1.76 | +3.9% | +30.4% | −16.6% | −1.3% |
| 25 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bear | $1.78 | −4.3% | +13.4% | −17.2% | +4.2% |
| 12 Apr 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 10 days 4 hours | Bear | $1.93 | −7.9% | +1.6% | −18.7% | −4.4% |
| 27 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bear | $1.70 | +9.9% | +6.1% | −7.1% | +2.7% |
| 18 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days 16 hours | Bear | $1.78 | −1.5% | +5.5% | +0.8% | −1.9% |
| 27 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | $1.41 | −0.5% | +17.8% | +50.9% | +0.1% |
| 22 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bear | $1.40 | +0.9% | +20.9% | +32.7% | +6.0% |
| 15 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days | Bear | $1.43 | +2.2% | +35.4% | +31.8% | +5.2% |
| 11 Feb 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | $1.26 | +14.8% | +34.3% | +55.4% | +6.3% |
| 29 Jan 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 8 days 8 hours | Bear | $1.84 | −18.1% | −23.1% | −5.2% | −24.1% |
| 25 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bear | $1.84 | −15.9% | −25.2% | −2.8% | +7.5% |
| 13 Jan 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 8 days 12 hours | Bear | $2.34 | −11.2% | −45.5% | −19.4% | −8.6% |
| 8 Jan 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bear | $2.21 | +2.3% | −35.1% | −7.0% | +13.5% |
| 29 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bear | $1.30 | +53.3% | +43.8% | +27.5% | +3.2% |
| 23 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hours | Bear | $1.26 | +3.0% | +57.5% | +28.1% | +3.6% |
| 10 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 9 days 8 hours | Bear | $1.65 | −15.1% | +31.0% | −15.6% | −18.8% |
| 5 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bear | $1.65 | −2.7% | +11.5% | −14.4% | −0.8% |
| 1 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | $1.71 | −7.8% | −24.0% | −17.8% | +2.9% |
| 21 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bear | $1.91 | −5.7% | −32.3% | −25.6% | −3.5% |
| 12 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 6 days 20 hours | Bear | $2.32 | −11.2% | −30.9% | −41.7% | −8.7% |
| 9 Nov 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | $2.21 | −3.4% | −25.9% | −35.2% | +14.2% |
| 28 Oct 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 8 days 16 hours | Bear | $2.48 | −19.3% | −26.3% | −24.5% | −18.7% |
| 22 Oct 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hours | Bear | $2.47 | −1.8% | −22.9% | −16.0% | +3.5% |
| 16 Oct 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 5 days 16 hours | Bear | $2.68 | −11.0% | −21.7% | −11.9% | −0.2% |
| 7 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hours | Bear | $3.39 | −10.1% | −40.2% | −41.3% | −18.3% |
| 4 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bear | $3.48 | −34.3% | −34.1% | −60.3% | +4.6% |
| 30 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bear | $3.25 | +10.6% | −26.5% | −59.4% | +7.4% |
| 19 Sep 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 9 days 4 hours | Bear | $3.91 | −14.5% | −36.6% | −66.9% | −11.7% |
| 14 Sep 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bear | $3.91 | +1.7% | −22.2% | −60.4% | +0.2% |
| 9 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bear | $3.77 | +0.5% | −11.1% | −58.1% | +6.0% |
| 4 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bear | $3.34 | +17.7% | +8.2% | −48.8% | +3.8% |
| 29 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hours | Bear | $3.49 | −3.8% | −3.2% | −47.7% | +0.4% |
| 24 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days | Bear | $3.67 | −5.1% | −0.1% | −53.9% | −0.9% |
| 18 Aug 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hours | Bear | $3.79 | −0.8% | +2.2% | −43.7% | −1.0% |
| 14 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bear | $3.86 | −4.5% | +4.5% | −39.7% | +4.4% |
| 11 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bear | $3.80 | +4.0% | −0.1% | −38.9% | +7.0% |
| 5 Aug 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | $3.48 | +7.5% | 0.0% | −34.2% | +7.2% |
| 28 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 7 days 8 hours | Bear | $4.17 | −14.4% | −14.0% | −40.8% | −11.3% |
| 23 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hours | Bear | $4.30 | −8.9% | −17.7% | −40.5% | +0.6% |
| 12 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bear | $3.49 | +15.8% | +13.1% | −7.3% | +11.1% |
| 4 Jul 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hours | Bear | $3.18 | +15.2% | +7.3% | +11.6% | +5.7% |
| 1 Jul 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bear | $3.16 | −0.2% | +22.6% | +9.2% | +2.7% |
| 26 Jun 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bear | $2.98 | +9.7% | +41.3% | +20.4% | +7.2% |
| 17 Jun 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 6 days 20 hours | Bear | $3.41 | −6.1% | +17.9% | +14.2% | −13.9% |
| 12 Jun 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hours | Bear | $3.86 | −15.5% | −5.6% | −1.8% | −7.4% |
| 4 Jun 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | $3.78 | +10.0% | −12.6% | −12.0% | +1.0% |
| 28 May 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 6 days 16 hours | Bear | $4.56 | −15.3% | −34.7% | −25.5% | −10.7% |
| 23 May 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bear | $4.91 | −14.3% | −39.9% | −25.0% | −0.9% |
| 13 May 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 9 days | Bear | $4.87 | −6.1% | −20.8% | −18.9% | +1.2% |
| 4 May 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bear | $4.53 | +20.7% | −12.6% | −22.0% | −2.5% |
| 24 Apr 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days | Bear | $4.30 | +3.7% | +8.6% | +6.9% | +5.5% |
| 16 Apr 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | $3.67 | +22.7% | +29.7% | +2.7% | +6.4% |
| 3 Apr 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 5 days | Bear | $3.31 | +2.1% | +46.3% | −7.0% | −10.5% |
| 28 Mar 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hours | Bear | $3.75 | −11.9% | +20.2% | −17.4% | −3.3% |
| 21 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bear | $3.15 | +24.4% | +33.9% | +3.4% | +6.8% |
| 18 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bear | $3.08 | +23.1% | +18.1% | +12.6% | +8.5% |
| 7 Mar 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days 16 hours | Bear | $3.67 | −19.3% | −13.9% | +1.9% | −17.0% |
| 3 Mar 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bear | $3.77 | −19.6% | −1.9% | +2.9% | +3.6% |
| 28 Feb 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bear | $3.47 | +9.6% | +0.9% | +28.0% | +10.0% |
| 21 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hours | Bear | $4.10 | −8.8% | −19.0% | +16.6% | −5.4% |
| 17 Feb 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bear | $4.40 | −5.4% | −26.6% | +3.0% | −0.3% |
| 6 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hours | Bear | $4.21 | +10.6% | −14.6% | +2.5% | +5.4% |
| 1 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bear | $5.53 | −25.3% | −20.0% | −16.4% | −9.4% |
| 18 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 12 days 20 hours | Bear | $7.44 | −7.6% | −40.0% | −46.0% | −18.1% |
| 7 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days 20 hours | Bear | $8.39 | −17.0% | −46.8% | −66.8% | −14.5% |
| 26 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days 8 hours | Bear | $7.19 | −0.2% | −4.3% | −43.8% | −0.2% |
| 14 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 6 days 12 hours | Bear | $8.94 | −17.4% | −20.3% | −66.8% | −11.3% |
| 9 Dec 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bear | $9.42 | −1.0% | −14.0% | −62.9% | +4.3% |
| 2 Dec 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bear | $8.35 | +23.0% | −18.7% | −54.5% | +10.2% |
| 26 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bear | $7.20 | +21.5% | +4.8% | −42.2% | +15.0% |
| 21 Nov 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bear | $7.21 | +9.7% | +2.3% | −42.0% | +9.9% |
| 31 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 12 hours | Bear | $4.80 | +5.3% | +82.1% | +15.5% | +1.7% |
| 22 Oct 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 7 days 4 hours | Bear | $5.24 | −6.2% | +40.4% | +27.9% | −3.2% |
| 16 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hours | Bear | $5.34 | −2.4% | +22.9% | +30.3% | +3.2% |
| 13 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 12 hours | Bear | $5.22 | +2.8% | +32.7% | +39.7% | +7.0% |
| 8 Oct 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hours | Bear | $5.25 | +6.5% | −3.7% | +57.8% | +2.9% |
| 1 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days | Bear | $6.13 | −14.5% | −18.9% | +11.5% | −5.5% |
| 15 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bear | $5.06 | +10.8% | +10.5% | +86.1% | −1.4% |
| 28 Aug 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 12 days 20 hours | Bear | $5.72 | −17.6% | +10.5% | +31.2% | −9.5% |
| 15 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hours | Bear | $4.54 | +5.5% | +15.4% | +58.8% | +1.7% |
| 11 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bear | $4.65 | −2.8% | +11.2% | +7.0% | +5.2% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 6 Aug 2024, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
195 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.