Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Render's 4-hour flips
After bullish flips the median price was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 97 of 98 | −3.3% | −5.0% to −1.3% (93%) | −4.4% to +1.2% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 94 of 98 | −5.9% | −11.3% to +1.0% (92%) | −11.2% to +2.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 88 of 98 | −15.1% | −20.9% to −5.2% (93%) | −19.6% to −4.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 96 of 97 | −1.8% | −4.3% to +0.5% (92%) | −4.7% to +1.0% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 93 of 97 | −3.7% | −12.6% to +2.2% (90%) | −10.8% to +2.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 87 of 97 | −16.0% | −19.4% to −7.0% (91%) | −19.4% to −4.2% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 6 Aug 2024, for comparison | 7 | 782 days | −1.7% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 759 days | −3.9% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 699 days | −13.2% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest 20 flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are 4-hour closes on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (12 hours) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 98 | 2 of 97 |
| After bearish flips | 97 | 1 of 97 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 12 hours. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Render's 4-hour line has flipped 90.3 times a year since 6 Aug 2024, 08:00 UTC.
On 4-hour candles the line flips often, and nearly every flip is reversed within 30 days, so the 7-, 30- and 90-day columns mostly show where the market drifted, not what the flip did.
Render, 4-hour flips: 98 bullish flips of 195
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 8 hours so far | Bull | $2.02 | not yet | not yet | not yet | −1.5% so far |
| 24 Sep 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bull | $1.88 | +1.9% | not yet | not yet | +2.4% |
| 17 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 6 days 16 hours | Bull | $1.36 | +27.0% | not yet | not yet | +25.3% |
| 6 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bull | $1.52 | −9.0% | not yet | not yet | −2.5% |
| 3 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bull | $1.48 | −1.1% | +33.1% | not yet | −4.4% |
| 25 Aug 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hours | Bull | $1.53 | −6.8% | +13.4% | not yet | −5.6% |
| 19 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days | Bull | $1.30 | +15.3% | +10.3% | not yet | +10.6% |
| 26 Jul 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bull | $1.48 | −9.0% | +0.3% | not yet | −4.8% |
| 20 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bull | $1.51 | −1.7% | −16.5% | not yet | +0.1% |
| 15 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bull | $1.53 | +0.1% | −17.9% | not yet | −2.4% |
| 2 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hours | Bull | $1.58 | −2.7% | −13.1% | +20.7% | −1.2% |
| 27 Jun 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bull | $1.61 | −0.2% | −7.9% | +14.9% | −6.4% |
| 12 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 4 days 16 hours | Bull | $1.63 | +2.9% | −5.3% | −10.1% | +6.0% |
| 2 Jun 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bull | $2.21 | −25.7% | −32.1% | −36.7% | −12.8% |
| 23 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hours | Bull | $1.93 | +1.9% | −14.2% | −27.2% | +10.0% |
| 20 May 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bull | $1.85 | +23.6% | −9.5% | −31.3% | +1.6% |
| 2 May 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 8 days 12 hours | Bull | $1.74 | +18.3% | +20.5% | −18.3% | +12.9% |
| 27 Apr 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 12 hours | Bull | $1.85 | −1.5% | +23.6% | −20.9% | −5.2% |
| 22 Apr 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bull | $1.84 | −5.3% | +5.1% | −17.6% | −3.4% |
| 30 Mar 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 12 days 20 hours | Bull | $1.75 | +8.9% | −0.2% | −10.9% | +10.2% |
| 24 Mar 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bull | $1.74 | −3.5% | +3.9% | −5.2% | −2.4% |
| 1 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 17 days 12 hours | Bull | $1.41 | −3.3% | +19.6% | +39.7% | +26.4% |
| 25 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bull | $1.48 | −9.3% | +19.4% | +47.7% | −5.0% |
| 20 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bull | $1.50 | −4.4% | +10.0% | +26.9% | −7.2% |
| 12 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bull | $1.34 | +5.9% | +34.0% | +42.2% | +6.7% |
| 6 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 16 hours | Bull | $1.40 | −5.9% | −2.6% | +40.4% | −9.8% |
| 28 Jan 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | $1.98 | −21.8% | −27.4% | −9.6% | −7.0% |
| 21 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hours | Bull | $2.13 | −12.6% | −34.4% | −16.2% | −13.7% |
| 11 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bull | $2.50 | −11.8% | −45.9% | −19.8% | −6.6% |
| 1 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days 12 hours | Bull | $1.34 | +67.7% | +25.5% | +30.1% | +64.7% |
| 27 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bull | $1.30 | +16.5% | +43.8% | +35.6% | −0.3% |
| 19 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bull | $1.34 | −8.2% | +64.6% | +30.6% | −6.3% |
| 7 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bull | $1.64 | −5.1% | +34.8% | −17.5% | +0.9% |
| 2 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bull | $1.76 | −6.9% | −26.9% | −23.9% | −6.3% |
| 25 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 6 days | Bull | $1.84 | −14.9% | −31.3% | −22.9% | −6.9% |
| 18 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bull | $2.12 | −13.4% | −39.0% | −32.5% | −10.2% |
| 10 Nov 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | $2.52 | −20.2% | −32.4% | −45.4% | −7.9% |
| 5 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bull | $2.02 | +15.3% | −15.1% | −21.1% | +9.7% |
| 26 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | $2.56 | −8.8% | −28.1% | −21.0% | −3.0% |
| 21 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 8 hours | Bull | $2.67 | −6.6% | −23.7% | −22.4% | −7.6% |
| 12 Oct 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bull | $2.77 | −10.4% | −8.9% | −15.1% | −3.2% |
| 5 Oct 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bull | $3.64 | −35.0% | −45.0% | −58.3% | −6.9% |
| 1 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 3 days | Bull | $3.49 | −3.7% | −36.1% | −62.9% | −0.4% |
| 29 Sep 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | $3.45 | +0.9% | −29.8% | −61.4% | −5.8% |
| 17 Sep 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bull | $3.92 | −8.4% | −35.6% | −64.1% | −0.3% |
| 12 Sep 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bull | $3.99 | +2.4% | −40.7% | −58.8% | −2.0% |
| 5 Sep 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days 8 hours | Bull | $3.46 | +15.3% | +1.0% | −49.3% | +8.7% |
| 3 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bull | $3.51 | +8.1% | +4.0% | −55.4% | −4.9% |
| 27 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bull | $3.64 | −5.0% | −8.2% | −49.5% | −4.0% |
| 22 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bull | $3.75 | −2.3% | +6.1% | −45.6% | −2.1% |
| 17 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bull | $4.02 | −4.6% | −5.9% | −47.9% | −5.8% |
| 12 Aug 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bull | $4.06 | −7.8% | −3.4% | −40.8% | −5.1% |
| 7 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bull | $3.73 | +11.9% | −7.3% | −50.1% | +1.8% |
| 5 Aug 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | $3.70 | +1.1% | −5.9% | −38.1% | −5.9% |
| 28 Jul 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bull | $4.33 | −17.6% | −17.2% | −43.0% | −3.7% |
| 14 Jul 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 9 days 12 hours | Bull | $3.88 | +12.1% | +4.5% | −39.0% | +11.0% |
| 9 Jul 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bull | $3.36 | +16.6% | +12.8% | +7.0% | +3.8% |
| 2 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | $3.25 | −1.3% | +14.8% | +4.9% | −1.9% |
| 28 Jun 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days | Bull | $3.20 | −1.3% | +35.5% | +4.5% | −1.1% |
| 23 Jun 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bull | $2.94 | +14.9% | +56.3% | +35.5% | +1.5% |
| 16 Jun 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bull | $3.58 | −21.7% | +9.6% | +13.4% | −4.6% |
| 6 Jun 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hours | Bull | $3.82 | −7.6% | −17.1% | −8.9% | +1.0% |
| 3 Jun 2025, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bull | $4.08 | −0.3% | −19.7% | −16.0% | −7.2% |
| 26 May 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bull | $4.87 | −19.3% | −34.3% | −21.1% | −6.2% |
| 22 May 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | $4.93 | −9.8% | −38.0% | −28.1% | −0.4% |
| 8 May 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days | Bull | $4.41 | +15.5% | −14.9% | −19.9% | +10.4% |
| 29 Apr 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days | Bull | $4.54 | −3.4% | −1.9% | −4.5% | −0.2% |
| 17 Apr 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 6 days 20 hours | Bull | $3.91 | +14.7% | +18.5% | +0.3% | +10.0% |
| 8 Apr 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 8 days 4 hours | Bull | $2.96 | +32.6% | +42.1% | +9.0% | +24.0% |
| 1 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 12 hours | Bull | $3.62 | −18.2% | +23.1% | −6.8% | −8.6% |
| 23 Mar 2025, 04:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hours | Bull | $3.37 | +4.1% | +30.2% | −9.2% | +11.3% |
| 19 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bull | $3.34 | +20.9% | +20.4% | +2.1% | −5.6% |
| 11 Mar 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 6 days 20 hours | Bull | $3.05 | +5.6% | +10.9% | +26.5% | +1.0% |
| 6 Mar 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | $3.90 | −21.1% | −17.1% | −0.9% | −5.8% |
| 28 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days | Bull | $3.82 | −0.4% | −8.3% | +16.3% | −1.5% |
| 27 Feb 2025, 08:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | $3.88 | −3.8% | −3.8% | +17.7% | −10.3% |
| 20 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bull | $4.39 | −14.1% | −26.8% | +5.9% | −6.7% |
| 10 Feb 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 6 days 20 hours | Bull | $4.43 | +0.8% | −33.3% | +23.3% | −0.7% |
| 3 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days | Bull | $5.01 | −15.3% | −29.6% | −8.7% | −16.1% |
| 31 Jan 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bull | $6.10 | −31.3% | −37.6% | −26.9% | −9.3% |
| 14 Jan 2025, 12:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hours | Bull | $7.17 | −6.1% | −35.1% | −47.3% | +3.9% |
| 2 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTCLasted 5 days 16 hours | Bull | $7.18 | +5.4% | −18.4% | −48.6% | +16.9% |
| 21 Dec 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hours | Bull | $7.92 | −11.6% | −15.5% | −58.1% | −9.3% |
| 11 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 4 hours | Bull | $9.83 | −13.2% | −28.5% | −72.2% | −9.1% |
| 3 Dec 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 6 days 8 hours | Bull | $9.21 | −3.2% | −22.0% | −52.0% | +2.3% |
| 28 Nov 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days | Bull | $8.28 | +4.8% | −15.4% | −55.8% | +0.9% |
| 23 Nov 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bull | $7.93 | +10.2% | −11.3% | −43.9% | −9.2% |
| 6 Nov 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 15 days | Bull | $4.88 | +47.7% | +107.0% | +3.4% | +47.9% |
| 29 Oct 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bull | $5.07 | −16.7% | +56.2% | +32.9% | −5.3% |
| 21 Oct 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bull | $5.51 | −11.6% | +42.9% | +35.6% | −5.0% |
| 14 Oct 2024, 04:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bull | $5.58 | −1.3% | +29.0% | +31.8% | −4.3% |
| 11 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bull | $5.40 | −3.3% | −1.7% | +40.2% | −3.4% |
| 4 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bull | $5.80 | −12.2% | −20.7% | +23.8% | −9.5% |
| 19 Sep 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 12 days 16 hours | Bull | $4.99 | +18.6% | +8.4% | +70.9% | +23.0% |
| 9 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTCLasted 6 days | Bull | $5.17 | −4.4% | +3.3% | +98.5% | −2.2% |
| 20 Aug 2024, 00:00 UTCLasted 8 days | Bull | $4.61 | +33.6% | +8.2% | +53.5% | +23.9% |
| 14 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bull | $4.89 | −8.1% | +7.3% | +41.7% | −7.2% |
| 6 Aug 2024, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days 8 hours | Bull | $4.79 | −1.7% | +2.8% | −7.1% | −3.0% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 6 Aug 2024, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
195 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.