Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Reserve Rights's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 49 of 49 | −1.0% | −3.6% to +3.3% (91%) | −5.3% to +1.7% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 48 of 49 | −0.1% | −7.9% to +5.6% (94%) | −14.4% to +0.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 46 of 49 | −15.5% | −21.0% to −7.4% (95%) | −25.4% to −6.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 48 of 48 | −1.5% | −4.5% to +0.9% (94%) | −5.6% to +1.4% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 48 of 48 | −3.8% | −7.6% to +9.4% (94%) | −14.4% to +0.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 46 of 48 | −15.5% | −22.1% to −8.9% (95%) | −25.4% to −6.5% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 22 Oct 2020, for comparison | 7 | 2,166 days | −2.0% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 2,143 days | −5.9% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 2,083 days | −14.6% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest five flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 49 | 1 of 49 |
| After bearish flips | 48 | 4 of 48 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Reserve Rights's daily line has flipped 16.3 times a year since 22 Oct 2020.
Reserve Rights, daily flips: 97 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026Lasted 21 days so far | Bull | 0.00000001896 BTC | +5.7% | not yet | not yet | +5.6% so far |
| 30 Aug 2026Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00000001707 BTC | +5.6% | +17.1% | not yet | +11.1% |
| 21 Aug 2026Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00000001943 BTC | −3.6% | +5.1% | not yet | −12.1% |
| 12 Aug 2026Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.00000001848 BTC | −3.1% | −0.8% | not yet | +5.1% |
| 9 Jul 2026Lasted 34 days | Bull | 0.00000002002 BTC | −5.5% | −2.3% | not yet | −7.7% |
| 12 Jun 2026Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.00000002115 BTC | −3.3% | −8.8% | −14.6% | −5.4% |
| 3 Jun 2026Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00000002334 BTC | −8.2% | −16.5% | −25.4% | −9.4% |
| 16 May 2026Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.00000002337 BTC | −4.6% | −4.6% | −22.1% | −0.1% |
| 16 Apr 2026Lasted 30 days | Bull | 0.00000002246 BTC | −0.4% | +4.0% | −14.5% | +4.0% |
| 31 Mar 2026Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.00000002230 BTC | −3.1% | −3.8% | −16.2% | +0.7% |
| 25 Mar 2026Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00000002505 BTC | −12.4% | −7.9% | −19.6% | −11.0% |
| 23 Mar 2026Lasted 2 days | Bear | 0.00000002225 BTC | +4.6% | −0.1% | −9.9% | +12.6% |
| 7 Mar 2026Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00000002386 BTC | +5.0% | −10.4% | −8.0% | −6.7% |
| 15 Jan 2026Lasted 51 days | Bear | 0.00000002789 BTC | −7.9% | −12.9% | −26.1% | −14.4% |
| 27 Dec 2025Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.00000003113 BTC | −2.7% | −15.3% | −20.7% | −10.4% |
| 3 Nov 2025Lasted 54 days | Bear | 0.00000004470 BTC | −0.2% | −14.2% | −48.3% | −30.3% |
| 13 Oct 2025Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.00000005395 BTC | −1.0% | −23.1% | −46.4% | −17.1% |
| 10 Oct 2025Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.00000003686 BTC | +58.3% | +21.9% | −17.2% | +46.4% |
| 1 Oct 2025Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00000005844 BTC | −15.5% | −12.1% | −50.3% | −36.9% |
| 27 Aug 2025Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.00000006861 BTC | 0.0% | −23.9% | −42.1% | −14.8% |
| 9 Aug 2025Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.00000007633 BTC | +2.1% | −10.7% | −39.4% | −10.1% |
| 30 Jul 2025Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00000006937 BTC | −4.8% | −1.3% | −33.5% | +10.0% |
| 24 Jun 2025Lasted 36 days | Bull | 0.00000006398 BTC | −2.8% | +14.2% | −13.6% | +8.4% |
| 15 May 2025Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.00000008581 BTC | +1.3% | −31.0% | −8.5% | −25.4% |
| 4 Apr 2025Lasted 41 days | Bull | 0.00000008486 BTC | +6.6% | +7.4% | −21.8% | +1.1% |
| 2 Apr 2025Lasted 2 days | Bear | 0.00000007201 BTC | +25.4% | +34.3% | −13.6% | +17.8% |
| 23 Mar 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00000007718 BTC | +0.7% | +25.1% | −26.2% | −6.7% |
| 13 Jan 2025Lasted 69 days | Bear | 0.0000001312 BTC | +0.9% | −28.5% | −33.9% | −41.2% |
| 28 Dec 2024Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.0000001601 BTC | +8.7% | −24.3% | −48.1% | −18.1% |
| 6 Dec 2024Lasted 22 days | Bear | 0.0000001801 BTC | −17.9% | −5.8% | −59.4% | −11.1% |
| 27 Nov 2024Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00000009394 BTC | +131.6% | +57.3% | −7.9% | +91.7% |
| 12 Nov 2024Lasted 15 days | Bear | 0.00000008194 BTC | +3.3% | +77.4% | +10.8% | +14.6% |
| 7 Nov 2024Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00000009801 BTC | −22.3% | +81.4% | −7.0% | −16.4% |
| 3 Oct 2024Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.0000001005 BTC | +5.6% | −14.6% | +51.1% | −2.4% |
| 9 Sep 2024Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.00000009872 BTC | −1.6% | +9.5% | +78.7% | +1.8% |
| 31 Aug 2024Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.00000008853 BTC | −0.6% | +20.2% | +11.8% | +11.5% |
| 16 Aug 2024Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.00000007027 BTC | +45.2% | +42.8% | +8.4% | +26.0% |
| 25 Jul 2024Lasted 22 days | Bear | 0.00000007597 BTC | −4.5% | +33.9% | +30.4% | −7.5% |
| 16 Jul 2024Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00000008908 BTC | −9.5% | −24.0% | +20.6% | −14.7% |
| 7 Jun 2024Lasted 39 days | Bear | 0.0000001033 BTC | −5.3% | −25.6% | −15.9% | −13.8% |
| 5 May 2024Lasted 33 days | Bull | 0.0000001105 BTC | −11.9% | +4.0% | −39.6% | −6.6% |
| 12 Apr 2024Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.00000009984 BTC | −7.6% | −2.5% | −22.1% | +10.7% |
| 5 Mar 2024Lasted 38 days | Bull | 0.00000007081 BTC | +22.7% | +102.6% | +67.4% | +41.0% |
| 28 Feb 2024Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00000005563 BTC | +78.5% | +159.1% | +114.4% | +27.3% |
| 16 Feb 2024Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00000005426 BTC | +9.7% | +62.0% | +95.1% | +2.5% |
| 3 Jan 2024Lasted 44 days | Bear | 0.00000006605 BTC | −13.1% | −21.7% | +117.8% | −17.9% |
| 24 Dec 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00000007225 BTC | +6.3% | −23.7% | +68.3% | −8.6% |
| 6 Dec 2023Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.00000006588 BTC | −1.5% | −5.1% | +7.5% | +9.7% |
| 28 Nov 2023Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00000007073 BTC | −1.1% | +5.6% | −4.1% | −6.9% |
| 19 Nov 2023Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.00000006593 BTC | +4.1% | −7.6% | −16.2% | +7.3% |
| 3 Nov 2023Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.00000006709 BTC | +15.2% | +5.3% | −24.6% | −1.7% |
| 17 Oct 2023Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.00000006237 BTC | −5.8% | +9.4% | −2.4% | +7.6% |
| 14 Oct 2023Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.00000006871 BTC | −11.3% | +1.0% | −10.2% | −9.2% |
| 20 Sep 2023Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.00000006850 BTC | −0.7% | −13.9% | −11.1% | +0.3% |
| 7 Sep 2023Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00000007115 BTC | +0.5% | −10.2% | −7.4% | −3.7% |
| 15 Aug 2023Lasted 23 days | Bear | 0.00000006945 BTC | −0.5% | +3.0% | −0.1% | +2.4% |
| 9 Aug 2023Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00000007150 BTC | −1.2% | −1.2% | −4.3% | −2.9% |
| 6 Jul 2023Lasted 34 days | Bear | 0.00000007091 BTC | +3.2% | −5.8% | −8.9% | +0.8% |
| 1 Jul 2023Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00000008389 BTC | −19.6% | −22.9% | −15.7% | −15.5% |
| 21 Apr 2023Lasted 71 days | Bear | 0.0000001396 BTC | −5.8% | −21.6% | −49.2% | −39.9% |
| 4 Apr 2023Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.0000001621 BTC | −10.8% | −22.9% | −50.2% | −13.9% |
| 4 Mar 2023Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.0000001959 BTC | −11.4% | −23.1% | −47.5% | −17.3% |
| 23 Jan 2023Lasted 40 days | Bull | 0.0000001944 BTC | −6.9% | +9.9% | −28.4% | +0.8% |
| 18 Jan 2023Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.0000001731 BTC | +8.4% | +18.0% | −9.9% | +12.3% |
| 5 Jan 2023Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.0000001837 BTC | +2.1% | −0.1% | −13.1% | −5.8% |
| 8 Nov 2022Lasted 58 days | Bear | 0.0000002637 BTC | −4.4% | −9.3% | −31.5% | −30.3% |
| 3 Nov 2022Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.0000003385 BTC | −23.6% | −29.8% | −46.6% | −22.1% |
| 8 Oct 2022Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.0000003950 BTC | −18.4% | −12.7% | −52.7% | −14.3% |
| 22 Sep 2022Lasted 16 days | Bull | 0.0000003474 BTC | +19.6% | −9.0% | −45.8% | +13.7% |
| 11 Sep 2022Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.0000002841 BTC | −3.7% | +25.4% | −15.5% | +22.3% |
| 30 Aug 2022Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.0000003256 BTC | −5.8% | +27.6% | −21.4% | −12.8% |
| 14 Aug 2022Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.0000003049 BTC | −6.7% | −5.9% | −21.2% | +6.8% |
| 4 Aug 2022Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0000003125 BTC | +6.2% | +0.5% | −2.3% | −2.4% |
| 11 Jul 2022Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.0000002950 BTC | +7.6% | +20.3% | +31.1% | +5.9% |
| 23 May 2022Lasted 49 days | Bull | 0.0000002230 BTC | +6.6% | +100.6% | +27.6% | +32.3% |
| 6 Apr 2022Lasted 47 days | Bear | 0.0000003507 BTC | −8.0% | −30.2% | −1.9% | −36.4% |
| 27 Mar 2022Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0000003581 BTC | +19.3% | −19.0% | +14.9% | −2.1% |
| 5 Dec 2021Lasted 112 days | Bear | 0.0000006889 BTC | −0.2% | −1.4% | −54.7% | −48.0% |
| 28 Nov 2021Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.0000007553 BTC | −8.8% | −16.5% | −54.4% | −8.8% |
| 18 Nov 2021Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.0000005853 BTC | +9.3% | +14.3% | −26.0% | +29.0% |
| 22 Oct 2021Lasted 27 days | Bull | 0.0000006792 BTC | −10.2% | −7.6% | −17.4% | −13.8% |
| 6 Sep 2021Lasted 46 days | Bear | 0.0000009329 BTC | −14.7% | −26.9% | −26.2% | −27.2% |
| 22 Jul 2021Lasted 46 days | Bull | 0.0000006646 BTC | +18.1% | +46.8% | −18.5% | +40.4% |
| 13 Jul 2021Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.0000006670 BTC | −13.1% | +29.9% | −9.3% | −0.3% |
| 7 Jul 2021Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0000007793 BTC | −13.2% | +19.3% | −1.7% | −14.4% |
| 24 Apr 2021Lasted 74 days | Bear | 0.000001380 BTC | +13.9% | −23.9% | −50.9% | −43.5% |
| 15 Mar 2021Lasted 40 days | Bull | 0.000001461 BTC | +8.3% | −7.7% | −45.6% | −5.5% |
| 12 Mar 2021Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.000001168 BTC | +39.0% | +23.0% | −27.7% | +25.1% |
| 2 Mar 2021Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.000001263 BTC | +5.7% | +18.7% | −15.5% | −7.5% |
| 16 Feb 2021Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.000001132 BTC | −20.9% | +21.8% | +30.2% | +11.6% |
| 10 Feb 2021Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000001204 BTC | −8.9% | −3.0% | +17.3% | −6.0% |
| 28 Jan 2021Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.000001000 BTC | +5.2% | +14.5% | +53.3% | +20.3% |
| 2 Jan 2021Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.0000009022 BTC | +28.6% | +22.7% | +64.3% | +10.9% |
| 17 Dec 2020Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.0000009128 BTC | −17.2% | +22.4% | +50.8% | −1.2% |
| 10 Nov 2020Lasted 37 days | Bull | 0.000001144 BTC | +3.3% | −9.2% | −21.0% | −20.2% |
| 31 Oct 2020Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.0000008397 BTC | +2.6% | +29.8% | +19.4% | +36.2% |
| 22 Oct 2020Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.000001111 BTC | −20.1% | +15.5% | +7.2% | −24.4% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 22 Oct 2020, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
97 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.