Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after SafePal's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 42 of 42 | −2.7% | −4.8% to +1.3% (91%) | −3.9% to +1.4% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 41 of 42 | −5.6% | −12.0% to −1.3% (94%) | −9.0% to +1.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 40 of 42 | −19.0% | −22.9% to −10.3% (92%) | −19.6% to −2.0% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 42 of 42 | −2.4% | −3.8% to +0.7% (91%) | −3.9% to +1.4% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 42 of 42 | −3.7% | −6.8% to 0.0% (91%) | −9.4% to +1.2% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 40 of 42 | −12.4% | −20.0% to −4.4% (92%) | −19.6% to −2.0% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 19 Apr 2021, for comparison | 7 | 1,987 days | −1.1% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 1,964 days | −3.1% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,904 days | −11.8% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest four flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 42 | 2 of 42 |
| After bearish flips | 42 | 1 of 42 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
SafePal's daily line has flipped 15.4 times a year since 19 Apr 2021.
SafePal, daily flips: 84 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Sep 2026Lasted 28 days so far | Bull | 0.000003561 BTC | +1.7% | not yet | not yet | −1.7% so far |
| 24 Aug 2026Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.000003412 BTC | −3.2% | +1.8% | not yet | +4.4% |
| 31 Jul 2026Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.000003498 BTC | −2.2% | −6.5% | not yet | −2.5% |
| 14 Jul 2026Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.000003418 BTC | −3.6% | +8.6% | not yet | +2.4% |
| 30 Jun 2026Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.000003722 BTC | −5.4% | −11.7% | −4.3% | −8.2% |
| 5 Jun 2026Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.000003721 BTC | +2.7% | −3.9% | −12.0% | 0.0% |
| 30 May 2026Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000004124 BTC | −11.7% | −15.9% | −19.3% | −9.8% |
| 30 Apr 2026Lasted 30 days | Bear | 0.000004182 BTC | −5.2% | −1.4% | −24.0% | −1.4% |
| 26 Apr 2026Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.000004474 BTC | −9.4% | −19.3% | −23.3% | −6.5% |
| 9 Apr 2026Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.000004083 BTC | +0.7% | −3.4% | −5.7% | +9.6% |
| 19 Feb 2026Lasted 49 days | Bull | 0.000004125 BTC | −6.6% | −1.1% | −13.4% | −1.0% |
| 1 Feb 2026Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.000003769 BTC | +1.2% | +6.1% | +7.4% | +9.4% |
| 29 Dec 2025Lasted 34 days | Bull | 0.000003628 BTC | +5.6% | +11.1% | +15.3% | +3.9% |
| 18 Dec 2025Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.000003425 BTC | +2.5% | +14.1% | +19.7% | +5.9% |
| 7 Nov 2025Lasted 41 days | Bull | 0.000003589 BTC | −2.9% | +1.5% | +7.5% | −4.6% |
| 10 Oct 2025Lasted 28 days | Bear | 0.000003576 BTC | −2.8% | −3.7% | +11.1% | +0.4% |
| 20 Sep 2025Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.000004276 BTC | +3.5% | −17.9% | −19.0% | −16.4% |
| 21 Aug 2025Lasted 30 days | Bear | 0.000004014 BTC | +5.8% | +6.5% | −4.9% | +6.5% |
| 9 Aug 2025Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.000004412 BTC | −5.9% | −7.1% | −18.6% | −9.0% |
| 23 Jul 2025Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.000004231 BTC | −4.0% | −1.1% | −17.8% | +4.3% |
| 18 Jul 2025Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.000004514 BTC | −5.8% | −8.2% | −21.7% | −6.3% |
| 22 Jun 2025Lasted 26 days | Bear | 0.000004472 BTC | −4.2% | −1.4% | −4.4% | +0.9% |
| 19 Jun 2025Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.000004641 BTC | −10.4% | −4.8% | −13.5% | −3.6% |
| 19 May 2025Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.000005318 BTC | −4.7% | −13.3% | −22.1% | −12.7% |
| 10 May 2025Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.000005807 BTC | −5.9% | −24.0% | −25.8% | −8.4% |
| 9 Apr 2025Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.000005906 BTC | −8.7% | −4.6% | −27.7% | −1.7% |
| 3 Apr 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000006273 BTC | −5.9% | −13.4% | −32.8% | −5.9% |
| 3 Mar 2025Lasted 31 days | Bear | 0.000006761 BTC | −0.9% | −8.9% | −33.0% | −7.2% |
| 25 Feb 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.000007067 BTC | −5.1% | −15.2% | −28.3% | −4.3% |
| 20 Feb 2025Lasted 5 days | Bear | 0.000006547 BTC | +12.7% | −1.9% | −23.8% | +7.9% |
| 12 Feb 2025Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.000006853 BTC | −2.7% | −6.4% | −15.3% | −4.5% |
| 18 Jan 2025Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.000006833 BTC | −3.8% | +0.1% | −20.5% | +0.3% |
| 23 Dec 2024Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.000008096 BTC | −4.2% | −18.4% | −23.5% | −15.6% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 14 days | Bear | 0.000006918 BTC | −5.9% | +4.8% | −3.6% | +17.0% |
| 27 Nov 2024Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.000007875 BTC | +8.5% | −3.7% | −10.3% | −12.1% |
| 13 Sep 2024Lasted 75 days | Bear | 0.00001295 BTC | −9.0% | −13.1% | −43.9% | −39.2% |
| 30 Aug 2024Lasted 14 days | Bull | 0.00001351 BTC | +4.4% | −16.9% | −44.3% | −4.1% |
| 8 Aug 2024Lasted 22 days | Bear | 0.00001326 BTC | −1.2% | +5.3% | −31.0% | +1.8% |
| 3 Aug 2024Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.00001253 BTC | +6.1% | +3.0% | −22.3% | +5.9% |
| 13 Jul 2024Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.00001300 BTC | −5.6% | +4.6% | −12.4% | −3.6% |
| 15 Jun 2024Lasted 28 days | Bull | 0.00001209 BTC | −6.4% | +1.7% | +7.1% | +7.5% |
| 5 May 2024Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.00001247 BTC | +6.9% | −8.0% | +0.5% | −3.0% |
| 8 Apr 2024Lasted 27 days | Bull | 0.00001217 BTC | +2.1% | +5.9% | +14.1% | +2.5% |
| 27 Feb 2024Lasted 41 days | Bear | 0.00001402 BTC | −19.3% | −21.2% | −14.4% | −13.2% |
| 17 Feb 2024Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00001523 BTC | +1.6% | −33.3% | −19.6% | −8.0% |
| 30 Jan 2024Lasted 18 days | Bear | 0.00001569 BTC | −1.6% | −17.8% | −20.5% | −2.9% |
| 12 Jan 2024Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.00001727 BTC | −3.5% | −14.2% | −27.8% | −9.1% |
| 2 Jan 2024Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00001724 BTC | −13.5% | −9.3% | −38.5% | +0.2% |
| 11 Dec 2023Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.00001759 BTC | −4.8% | −12.0% | −34.6% | −2.0% |
| 21 Oct 2023Lasted 51 days | Bear | 0.00002084 BTC | −0.5% | −14.2% | −20.0% | −15.6% |
| 7 Aug 2023Lasted 75 days | Bull | 0.00001476 BTC | +6.5% | +56.1% | +40.8% | +41.2% |
| 23 Jun 2023Lasted 45 days | Bear | 0.00001540 BTC | −1.1% | −6.3% | +43.2% | −4.2% |
| 17 Jun 2023Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00001576 BTC | −3.7% | −5.6% | +44.8% | −2.3% |
| 6 Jun 2023Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.00001434 BTC | −3.6% | 0.0% | +55.0% | +9.9% |
| 25 May 2023Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00001548 BTC | −1.9% | −1.9% | +43.1% | −7.4% |
| 12 Apr 2023Lasted 43 days | Bear | 0.00001599 BTC | +0.8% | −6.8% | −9.6% | −3.2% |
| 31 Mar 2023Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00001718 BTC | −0.9% | −13.8% | −14.6% | −6.9% |
| 9 Feb 2023Lasted 50 days | Bear | 0.00002135 BTC | +3.2% | −4.7% | −31.9% | −19.5% |
| 30 Jan 2023Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00002261 BTC | +4.2% | −1.3% | −34.5% | −5.6% |
| 21 Nov 2022Lasted 70 days | Bear | 0.00003092 BTC | −7.8% | −21.5% | −27.7% | −26.9% |
| 13 Nov 2022Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00003013 BTC | +8.0% | −12.9% | −26.5% | +2.6% |
| 9 Nov 2022Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.00001839 BTC | +103.7% | +47.2% | +34.5% | +63.9% |
| 21 Oct 2022Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.00002016 BTC | −1.7% | +61.5% | −5.4% | −8.8% |
| 13 Oct 2022Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.00001822 BTC | +8.1% | +0.7% | +23.2% | +10.6% |
| 3 Oct 2022Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00001979 BTC | −6.3% | −1.3% | +21.1% | −7.9% |
| 11 Sep 2022Lasted 22 days | Bear | 0.00001803 BTC | −2.4% | +3.9% | +53.4% | +9.8% |
| 25 Aug 2022Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.00001843 BTC | +7.6% | +0.6% | +59.9% | −2.2% |
| 18 Aug 2022Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.00001603 BTC | +15.0% | +14.6% | +133.7% | +15.0% |
| 23 Jul 2022Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.00001642 BTC | +1.3% | +2.3% | +22.8% | −2.4% |
| 10 Jul 2022Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00001595 BTC | −5.9% | +11.2% | +22.2% | +2.9% |
| 14 Jun 2022Lasted 26 days | Bull | 0.00001409 BTC | +21.8% | +5.5% | +25.3% | +13.2% |
| 11 Jun 2022Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.00001202 BTC | +29.8% | +27.1% | +54.1% | +17.2% |
| 29 May 2022Lasted 13 days | Bull | 0.00001656 BTC | −19.9% | +3.2% | +15.9% | −27.4% |
| 11 Apr 2022Lasted 48 days | Bear | 0.00001888 BTC | +2.5% | −29.5% | −15.5% | −12.3% |
| 5 Mar 2022Lasted 37 days | Bull | 0.00001782 BTC | +2.5% | +20.4% | −25.1% | +5.9% |
| 17 Dec 2021Lasted 78 days | Bear | 0.00003330 BTC | −7.3% | −21.8% | −46.8% | −46.5% |
| 23 Nov 2021Lasted 24 days | Bull | 0.00003316 BTC | +4.2% | −1.8% | −47.9% | +0.4% |
| 16 Oct 2021Lasted 38 days | Bear | 0.00003118 BTC | −6.0% | −21.0% | −17.9% | +6.3% |
| 13 Oct 2021Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.00004920 BTC | −42.4% | −50.5% | −47.3% | −36.6% |
| 6 Sep 2021Lasted 37 days | Bear | 0.00002899 BTC | −16.4% | −34.3% | +21.8% | +69.7% |
| 14 Jul 2021Lasted 54 days | Bull | 0.00002364 BTC | −2.0% | +9.9% | −22.9% | +22.6% |
| 19 May 2021Lasted 56 days | Bear | 0.00003080 BTC | +3.2% | −10.8% | −9.7% | −23.2% |
| 29 Apr 2021Lasted 20 days | Bull | 0.00004914 BTC | −6.1% | −43.9% | −53.1% | −37.3% |
| 19 Apr 2021Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00004128 BTC | +4.9% | −25.4% | −43.9% | +19.0% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 19 Apr 2021, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
84 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.