Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Verge's daily flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bullish flips the median price in Bitcoin was lower 90 days later. A bullish flip did not by itself mean the price went up. Both medians are within the range of ordinary days.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 45 of 46 | −4.8% | −6.4% to −1.1% (93%) | −5.3% to +0.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 45 of 46 | −8.4% | −14.1% to −0.3% (93%) | −13.6% to −1.4% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 42 of 46 | −12.3% | −29.3% to +3.2% (91%) | −27.9% to −4.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 45 of 45 | −2.3% | −4.1% to −0.1% (93%) | −5.3% to +0.8% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 44 of 45 | −5.9% | −13.8% to −1.6% (90%) | −14.1% to −1.9% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 42 of 45 | −20.5% | −30.1% to −6.3% (91%) | −27.9% to −4.3% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| Any day since 2 Aug 2021, for comparison | 7 | 1,881 days | −2.3% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 1,858 days | −7.6% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 1,798 days | −14.8% | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest seven flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (3 days) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 46 | 4 of 46 |
| After bearish flips | 45 | 3 of 45 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 3 days. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
Verge's daily line has flipped 17.6 times a year since 2 Aug 2021.
Verge, daily flips: 91 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2026Lasted 5 days so far | Bull | 0.00000004115 BTC | not yet | not yet | not yet | −10.5% so far |
| 23 Sep 2026Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.00000003377 BTC | +16.0% | not yet | not yet | +21.9% |
| 22 Aug 2026Lasted 32 days | Bull | 0.00000003327 BTC | −6.1% | +9.0% | not yet | +1.5% |
| 18 Aug 2026Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.00000003062 BTC | +2.3% | +27.1% | not yet | +8.6% |
| 9 Aug 2026Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00000003464 BTC | −6.9% | +7.6% | not yet | −11.6% |
| 29 Jul 2026Lasted 11 days | Bear | 0.00000002957 BTC | +3.8% | +6.1% | not yet | +17.1% |
| 19 Jul 2026Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00000003357 BTC | −1.1% | −8.8% | not yet | −11.9% |
| 4 Jun 2026Lasted 45 days | Bear | 0.00000004117 BTC | −4.1% | −11.8% | −13.2% | −18.4% |
| 5 May 2026Lasted 30 days | Bull | 0.00000004745 BTC | −6.8% | −13.2% | −33.2% | −13.2% |
| 14 Apr 2026Lasted 21 days | Bear | 0.00000006273 BTC | −24.5% | −27.8% | −46.1% | −24.4% |
| 10 Apr 2026Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.00000006872 BTC | −29.6% | −33.1% | −50.9% | −8.7% |
| 1 Mar 2026Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.00000008270 BTC | −7.0% | −20.4% | −47.2% | −16.9% |
| 6 Feb 2026Lasted 23 days | Bull | 0.00000008490 BTC | +8.9% | −9.4% | −46.4% | −2.6% |
| 30 Jan 2026Lasted 7 days | Bear | 0.00000007158 BTC | +18.6% | +15.5% | −43.9% | +18.6% |
| 29 Dec 2025Lasted 32 days | Bull | 0.00000006436 BTC | +1.4% | +18.3% | +1.0% | +11.2% |
| 2 Dec 2025Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.00000006619 BTC | +6.8% | −1.6% | +18.8% | −2.8% |
| 15 Nov 2025Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.00000008083 BTC | +12.6% | −19.9% | +14.4% | −18.1% |
| 12 Nov 2025Lasted 3 days | Bear | 0.00000006465 BTC | +24.0% | +1.8% | +34.9% | +25.0% |
| 1 Nov 2025Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00000006317 BTC | +11.2% | +11.3% | +13.3% | +2.3% |
| 7 Oct 2025Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.00000005787 BTC | −4.3% | +34.6% | +12.7% | +9.2% |
| 1 Oct 2025Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.00000005300 BTC | +17.9% | +3.8% | +35.2% | +9.2% |
| 15 Sep 2025Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.00000004985 BTC | −5.6% | +8.5% | +27.8% | +6.3% |
| 13 Sep 2025Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.00000005399 BTC | −7.5% | +6.5% | +21.9% | −7.7% |
| 19 Aug 2025Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.00000005388 BTC | −0.5% | −4.8% | +73.7% | +0.2% |
| 9 Aug 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00000006376 BTC | −10.0% | −17.7% | +22.9% | −15.5% |
| 24 Jul 2025Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.00000005786 BTC | −7.2% | −3.5% | −11.5% | +10.2% |
| 29 Jun 2025Lasted 25 days | Bull | 0.00000005049 BTC | −6.5% | +12.7% | −12.3% | +14.6% |
| 30 May 2025Lasted 30 days | Bear | 0.00000005802 BTC | −3.8% | −13.0% | −7.2% | −13.0% |
| 9 May 2025Lasted 21 days | Bull | 0.00000005703 BTC | +13.8% | +0.3% | −1.2% | +1.7% |
| 3 May 2025Lasted 6 days | Bear | 0.00000005105 BTC | +21.9% | +22.4% | +3.6% | +11.7% |
| 18 Apr 2025Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.00000005237 BTC | +6.8% | +28.3% | +13.8% | −2.5% |
| 12 Jan 2025Lasted 96 days | Bear | 0.0000001210 BTC | −10.9% | −43.7% | −57.3% | −56.7% |
| 2 Jan 2025Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0000001576 BTC | −20.5% | −52.4% | −67.5% | −23.2% |
| 9 Dec 2024Lasted 24 days | Bear | 0.0000001234 BTC | +5.8% | +6.9% | −53.6% | +27.7% |
| 10 Nov 2024Lasted 29 days | Bull | 0.00000005287 BTC | +28.0% | +120.7% | +29.5% | +133.5% |
| 1 Oct 2024Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.00000006014 BTC | +4.9% | −15.6% | +137.4% | −12.1% |
| 12 Sep 2024Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.00000006516 BTC | −4.8% | −6.8% | +106.8% | −7.7% |
| 30 Aug 2024Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.00000006179 BTC | −2.3% | +8.4% | +11.6% | +5.5% |
| 18 Aug 2024Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.00000006249 BTC | +6.5% | −2.0% | +9.1% | −1.1% |
| 24 Jul 2024Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.00000006383 BTC | −4.7% | +5.6% | −6.3% | −2.1% |
| 16 Jul 2024Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.00000007269 BTC | −11.6% | −18.4% | −15.6% | −12.2% |
| 8 Jun 2024Lasted 38 days | Bear | 0.00000007699 BTC | −4.2% | −15.2% | −21.6% | −5.6% |
| 28 May 2024Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00000009048 BTC | −6.4% | −23.7% | −29.3% | −14.9% |
| 19 May 2024Lasted 9 days | Bear | 0.00000008308 BTC | −3.0% | −24.9% | −28.5% | +8.9% |
| 9 May 2024Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.00000009563 BTC | −4.8% | −19.5% | −40.8% | −13.1% |
| 4 Apr 2024Lasted 35 days | Bear | 0.0000001278 BTC | −3.4% | −36.3% | −47.8% | −25.2% |
| 1 Apr 2024Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.0000001463 BTC | −12.8% | −43.4% | −53.7% | −12.6% |
| 28 Feb 2024Lasted 33 days | Bear | 0.0000001004 BTC | −12.0% | −3.7% | −9.9% | +45.6% |
| 17 Feb 2024Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.00000007459 BTC | +3.2% | +12.9% | +19.3% | +34.7% |
| 31 Jan 2024Lasted 17 days | Bear | 0.00000007344 BTC | −0.2% | +35.0% | +7.8% | +1.6% |
| 13 Jan 2024Lasted 18 days | Bull | 0.00000008516 BTC | −4.7% | −19.1% | +26.1% | −13.8% |
| 3 Jan 2024Lasted 10 days | Bear | 0.00000008181 BTC | −5.0% | −9.7% | +133.3% | +4.1% |
| 25 Dec 2023Lasted 9 days | Bull | 0.00000008656 BTC | +6.7% | −10.3% | +3.2% | −5.5% |
| 3 Oct 2023Lasted 83 days | Bear | 0.0000001250 BTC | −5.2% | −13.8% | −26.1% | −30.7% |
| 28 Sep 2023Lasted 5 days | Bull | 0.0000001362 BTC | −10.3% | −19.4% | −33.5% | −8.2% |
| 12 Sep 2023Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.0000001287 BTC | −0.1% | −5.7% | −32.1% | +5.8% |
| 9 Sep 2023Lasted 3 days | Bull | 0.0000001499 BTC | −13.4% | −21.4% | −40.0% | −14.1% |
| 24 Jul 2023Lasted 47 days | Bear | 0.0000001693 BTC | +4.9% | −16.6% | −31.7% | −11.5% |
| 2 Jul 2023Lasted 22 days | Bull | 0.0000001246 BTC | +117.0% | +37.0% | +9.4% | +35.8% |
| 1 Jul 2023Lasted 1 day | Bear | 0.00000007788 BTC | +234.2% | +128.1% | +79.1% | +60.0% |
| 27 Jun 2023Lasted 4 days | Bull | 0.00000006432 BTC | +200.5% | +144.4% | +98.1% | +21.1% |
| 22 May 2023Lasted 36 days | Bear | 0.00000007807 BTC | −7.2% | −33.0% | +73.3% | −17.6% |
| 20 May 2023Lasted 2 days | Bull | 0.00000009313 BTC | −19.7% | −38.6% | +42.5% | −16.2% |
| 8 Mar 2023Lasted 73 days | Bear | 0.0000001299 BTC | −11.1% | −31.7% | −47.7% | −28.3% |
| 19 Feb 2023Lasted 17 days | Bull | 0.0000001399 BTC | +2.8% | −24.8% | −33.4% | −7.1% |
| 15 Feb 2023Lasted 4 days | Bear | 0.0000001318 BTC | +7.9% | −16.4% | −46.3% | +6.1% |
| 7 Feb 2023Lasted 8 days | Bull | 0.0000001398 BTC | −1.3% | −8.4% | −51.4% | −5.7% |
| 11 Jan 2023Lasted 27 days | Bear | 0.0000001566 BTC | −15.1% | −11.7% | −45.7% | −10.7% |
| 23 Nov 2022Lasted 49 days | Bull | 0.0000001620 BTC | −9.0% | +1.2% | −9.5% | −3.3% |
| 12 Oct 2022Lasted 42 days | Bear | 0.0000001629 BTC | −0.5% | −14.4% | −2.5% | −0.5% |
| 11 Sep 2022Lasted 31 days | Bull | 0.0000001746 BTC | −5.0% | −2.3% | −16.4% | −6.7% |
| 10 Sep 2022Lasted 1 day | Bear | 0.0000001487 BTC | +12.6% | +14.6% | +0.1% | +17.4% |
| 31 Aug 2022Lasted 10 days | Bull | 0.0000001671 BTC | −5.1% | +1.1% | −8.3% | −11.0% |
| 19 Aug 2022Lasted 12 days | Bear | 0.0000001536 BTC | −2.5% | +8.0% | −14.2% | +8.8% |
| 4 Aug 2022Lasted 15 days | Bull | 0.0000001666 BTC | −1.5% | −5.9% | −8.3% | −7.8% |
| 27 Jul 2022Lasted 8 days | Bear | 0.0000001551 BTC | +5.4% | −3.5% | +1.1% | +7.4% |
| 21 Jun 2022Lasted 36 days | Bull | 0.0000001617 BTC | −7.6% | −0.3% | +3.2% | −4.1% |
| 8 Apr 2022Lasted 74 days | Bear | 0.0000002611 BTC | −0.6% | −16.7% | −41.4% | −38.1% |
| 27 Mar 2022Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.0000002676 BTC | +13.6% | −9.1% | −42.3% | −2.4% |
| 14 Mar 2022Lasted 13 days | Bear | 0.0000002309 BTC | +4.6% | +11.0% | −44.3% | +15.9% |
| 8 Mar 2022Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0000002662 BTC | −16.6% | +0.7% | −42.0% | −13.3% |
| 20 Feb 2022Lasted 16 days | Bear | 0.0000002506 BTC | −2.3% | −5.9% | −30.2% | +6.2% |
| 9 Feb 2022Lasted 11 days | Bull | 0.0000002824 BTC | −5.5% | −14.1% | −28.1% | −11.3% |
| 7 Jan 2022Lasted 33 days | Bear | 0.0000003498 BTC | −7.8% | −22.3% | −23.3% | −19.3% |
| 26 Dec 2021Lasted 12 days | Bull | 0.0000003815 BTC | −2.0% | −31.1% | −34.9% | −8.3% |
| 16 Nov 2021Lasted 40 days | Bear | 0.0000004404 BTC | +0.3% | −16.8% | −39.6% | −13.4% |
| 10 Nov 2021Lasted 6 days | Bull | 0.0000004499 BTC | +9.7% | −16.7% | −40.2% | −2.1% |
| 16 Oct 2021Lasted 25 days | Bear | 0.0000004056 BTC | −2.5% | +12.3% | −20.5% | +10.9% |
| 9 Oct 2021Lasted 7 days | Bull | 0.0000004655 BTC | −12.9% | −21.5% | −24.9% | −12.9% |
| 21 Aug 2021Lasted 49 days | Bear | 0.0000006522 BTC | −13.8% | −23.2% | −30.1% | −28.6% |
| 2 Aug 2021Lasted 19 days | Bull | 0.0000006023 BTC | −3.1% | −1.5% | −34.4% | +8.3% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 2 Aug 2021, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
91 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.