Every flip we have recorded, and what the price did next.
A flip is written when its candle closes and is never edited afterwards.
What happened after Zama's 4-hour flips, measured in Bitcoin
After bearish flips the median price in Bitcoin was still higher 90 days later. A bearish flip did not by itself mean the price went down.
| Which flips | Days later | Flips counted | Median change | Range of the median | Ordinary days | Against ordinary days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 7 | 37 of 38 | +1.7% | −2.3% to +6.3% (90%) | −3.1% to +5.4% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 34 of 38 | +11.2% | +8.7% to +28.5% (94%) | +4.6% to +24.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 23 of 38 | +64.2% | +30.7% to +79.1% (91%) | too little history | – | |
| After bearish flips | 7 | 37 of 38 | +1.6% | −1.9% to +6.8% (90%) | −3.1% to +5.4% | within the range of ordinary days |
| 30 | 34 of 38 | +11.4% | +5.9% to +24.0% (94%) | +4.6% to +24.7% | within the range of ordinary days | |
| 90 | 24 of 38 | +59.0% | +41.3% to +68.6% (94%) | too little history | – | |
| Any day since 9 Feb 2026, for comparison | 7 | 230 days | +0.6% | – | – | – |
| 30 | 207 days | +13.3% | – | – | – | |
| 90 | 147 days | too little history | – | – | – |
Flips counted: 4 of 5 means four of the five flips are old enough for that many days to have passed. Each median uses only those; with an even number of flips it is the lower of the two middle results.
Range of the median: worked out from the flips' own results, with no assumptions about them. The share in brackets is how often a range built this way holds the true median; with fewer than 6 flips it runs from the lowest result to the highest.
Ordinary days: the median of the same number of ordinary days from the same period lands in this range 95 times in 100. A median is called within the range of ordinary days unless it falls outside it. About 1 cell in 20 falls outside by chance alone.
The latest 29 flips are too recent for some of the columns: each median uses only the flips whose window has passed.
Prices are the coin's close divided by Bitcoin's on Binance. Returns are measured from the close of the flip candle.
How soon flips were reversed
| Which flips | Flips | Reversed within 3 candles (12 hours) |
|---|---|---|
| After bullish flips | 38 | 2 of 37 |
| After bearish flips | 38 | 2 of 38 |
A flip counts as reversed when the next flip came within 3 candles, 12 hours. A flip is only counted once 3 candles have closed after it.
There is less than a year of flips here, too little to count flips a year.
On 4-hour candles the line flips often, and nearly every flip is reversed within 30 days, so the 7-, 30- and 90-day columns mostly show where the market drifted, not what the flip did.
Zama, 4-hour flips: 76 flips
Each figure is the price change from the flip price: 7, 30 and 90 days later, and at the next flip. Green means the price rose and red that it fell, whatever the flip said.
| Candle closed | Flipped to | Price at the flip | 7 days later | 30 days later | 90 days later | Until the next flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 8 hours so far | Bull | 0.000001013 BTC | not yet | not yet | not yet | +3.2% so far |
| 27 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days | Bear | 0.0000009567 BTC | not yet | not yet | not yet | +5.9% |
| 17 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 10 days 16 hours | Bull | 0.0000006296 BTC | +73.3% | not yet | not yet | +52.0% |
| 14 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000006089 BTC | +69.1% | not yet | not yet | +3.4% |
| 13 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bull | 0.0000006377 BTC | +58.9% | not yet | not yet | −4.5% |
| 7 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 6 days | Bear | 0.0000006450 BTC | −3.0% | not yet | not yet | −1.1% |
| 6 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000006825 BTC | −8.3% | not yet | not yet | −5.5% |
| 4 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bear | 0.0000006476 BTC | −5.6% | not yet | not yet | +5.4% |
| 3 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000006941 BTC | −8.2% | +27.5% | not yet | −6.7% |
| 26 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 8 days | Bear | 0.0000006781 BTC | −5.1% | +54.9% | not yet | +2.4% |
| 24 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000007810 BTC | −16.2% | +51.0% | not yet | −13.2% |
| 22 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.0000006887 BTC | −5.9% | +49.5% | not yet | +13.4% |
| 22 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 12 hours | Bull | 0.0000006634 BTC | −2.3% | +55.2% | not yet | +3.8% |
| 20 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | 0.0000006207 BTC | +11.3% | +19.5% | not yet | +6.9% |
| 18 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000006595 BTC | +14.9% | −4.5% | not yet | −5.9% |
| 12 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 6 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.0000007138 BTC | −10.4% | −14.3% | not yet | −7.6% |
| 11 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bull | 0.0000007606 BTC | −17.6% | −16.3% | not yet | −6.1% |
| 8 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hours | Bear | 0.0000007607 BTC | −4.9% | −6.0% | not yet | 0.0% |
| 6 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000008449 BTC | −12.5% | −23.4% | not yet | −10.0% |
| 30 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 7 days 20 hours | Bear | 0.0000008647 BTC | −9.4% | −25.0% | not yet | −2.3% |
| 27 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000009905 BTC | −21.6% | −31.5% | not yet | −12.7% |
| 25 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.0000007814 BTC | +6.8% | −5.7% | not yet | +26.8% |
| 19 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 20 hours | Bull | 0.0000005531 BTC | +55.7% | +13.3% | not yet | +41.3% |
| 19 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bear | 0.0000005374 BTC | +60.3% | +16.6% | not yet | +2.9% |
| 15 Jul 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 20 hours | Bull | 0.0000005336 BTC | +12.7% | +42.0% | not yet | +0.7% |
| 13 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bear | 0.0000005281 BTC | +3.9% | +36.7% | not yet | +1.0% |
| 11 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000005374 BTC | +1.6% | +28.5% | not yet | −1.7% |
| 10 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000005221 BTC | +5.4% | +38.8% | not yet | +2.9% |
| 6 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000005259 BTC | +2.9% | +45.9% | not yet | −0.7% |
| 2 Jul 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hours | Bear | 0.0000005437 BTC | −0.9% | +53.5% | +64.8% | −3.3% |
| 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000005339 BTC | +1.7% | +62.0% | +83.4% | +1.9% |
| 28 Jun 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | 0.0000005118 BTC | +0.8% | +85.3% | +109.6% | +4.3% |
| 26 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days 12 hours | Bull | 0.0000005440 BTC | −5.5% | +58.3% | +100.6% | −5.9% |
| 25 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000005080 BTC | +10.4% | +64.2% | +132.2% | +7.1% |
| 23 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 16 hours | Bull | 0.0000005415 BTC | −1.4% | +33.1% | +90.2% | −6.2% |
| 21 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | 0.0000005268 BTC | −1.9% | +16.1% | +40.8% | +2.8% |
| 16 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000004898 BTC | +6.3% | +10.6% | +27.7% | +7.6% |
| 13 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000004902 BTC | +14.1% | +10.4% | +24.8% | −0.1% |
| 10 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000004962 BTC | −1.6% | +5.2% | +30.2% | −1.2% |
| 9 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000004611 BTC | +1.6% | +16.9% | +55.1% | +7.6% |
| 7 Jun 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bull | 0.0000004953 BTC | +0.6% | +9.6% | +30.7% | −6.9% |
| 30 May 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 7 days 20 hours | Bear | 0.0000004853 BTC | −1.4% | +5.9% | +41.3% | +2.1% |
| 26 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hours | Bull | 0.0000004472 BTC | +13.1% | +13.6% | +64.7% | +8.5% |
| 26 May 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 16 hours | Bear | 0.0000004096 BTC | +23.5% | +24.0% | +79.8% | +9.2% |
| 15 May 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 10 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000003406 BTC | +20.3% | +46.3% | +117.0% | +20.2% |
| 11 May 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 4 hours | Bear | 0.0000003582 BTC | −6.1% | +30.9% | +102.4% | −4.9% |
| 9 May 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 2 days 16 hours | Bull | 0.0000003656 BTC | −5.8% | +29.4% | +123.7% | −2.0% |
| 5 May 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000003562 BTC | −0.6% | +43.8% | +118.1% | +2.6% |
| 28 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 7 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000003558 BTC | +2.2% | +31.7% | +151.3% | +0.1% |
| 25 Apr 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000003966 BTC | −12.4% | +3.6% | +105.9% | −10.3% |
| 24 Apr 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bull | 0.0000003773 BTC | −8.7% | +9.8% | +91.0% | +5.1% |
| 15 Apr 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 8 days 20 hours | Bear | 0.0000004081 BTC | −9.2% | −18.7% | +28.8% | −7.6% |
| 14 Apr 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 1 day | Bull | 0.0000004319 BTC | −16.1% | −23.8% | +25.3% | −5.5% |
| 13 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 12 hours | Bear | 0.0000003411 BTC | +8.7% | +3.5% | +56.6% | +26.6% |
| 8 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 5 days 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000003230 BTC | +34.5% | +9.3% | +68.1% | +5.6% |
| 7 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bear | 0.0000003040 BTC | +14.8% | +17.0% | +65.7% | +6.2% |
| 7 Apr 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 12 hours | Bull | 0.0000003273 BTC | +6.6% | +8.7% | +53.9% | −7.1% |
| 5 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | 0.0000003290 BTC | +9.3% | +10.6% | +61.1% | −0.5% |
| 2 Apr 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000003470 BTC | −6.9% | +0.1% | +64.2% | −5.2% |
| 28 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 12 hours | Bear | 0.0000003451 BTC | +1.8% | −0.5% | +50.8% | +0.5% |
| 19 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTCLasted 9 days 16 hours | Bull | 0.0000003168 BTC | +9.6% | +20.0% | +54.2% | +9.0% |
| 18 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000002840 BTC | +17.3% | +48.8% | +64.9% | +11.5% |
| 17 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 20 hours | Bull | 0.0000003093 BTC | +4.6% | +33.0% | +56.5% | −8.2% |
| 16 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000002957 BTC | +9.9% | +46.9% | +68.6% | +4.6% |
| 11 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 20 hours | Bull | 0.0000002901 BTC | +7.5% | +11.2% | +69.3% | +1.9% |
| 9 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 2 days | Bear | 0.0000002775 BTC | +7.3% | +8.8% | +69.6% | +4.5% |
| 6 Mar 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 3 days 8 hours | Bull | 0.0000002860 BTC | +7.0% | +19.5% | +79.1% | −3.0% |
| 1 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 4 days 16 hours | Bear | 0.0000003212 BTC | −8.0% | +5.0% | +59.0% | −11.0% |
| 26 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 2 days 20 hours | Bull | 0.0000003700 BTC | −27.9% | −2.5% | +19.1% | −13.2% |
| 25 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bear | 0.0000003247 BTC | −6.9% | +6.3% | +31.4% | +14.0% |
| 24 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTCLasted 1 day 4 hours | Bull | 0.0000003601 BTC | −21.8% | −3.6% | +14.1% | −9.8% |
| 22 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTCLasted 1 day 20 hours | Bear | 0.0000003209 BTC | +3.5% | +0.8% | +27.8% | +12.2% |
| 19 Feb 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 12 hours | Bull | 0.0000003202 BTC | +3.0% | +1.7% | +10.5% | +0.2% |
| 17 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCLasted 1 day 8 hours | Bear | 0.0000002844 BTC | +16.2% | +11.4% | +18.3% | +12.6% |
| 14 Feb 2026, 04:00 UTCLasted 3 days 16 hours | Bull | 0.0000002978 BTC | +12.9% | 0.0% | +11.5% | −4.5% |
| 9 Feb 2026, 08:00 UTCLasted 4 days 20 hours | Bear | 0.0000003804 BTC | −23.2% | −26.9% | −2.7% | −21.7% |
How to read this
Closed candles only
Flips are computed on closed candles only, so a flip never appears and then vanishes while a candle is still open. The ledger is append-only. When the rules change, the rule set gets a new version number and the old entries stay exactly as they were.
Compare with any day
The comparison rows show what the price did after any day since 9 Feb 2026, from the first flip on these candles on, so they cover the same period as the flips. A row that rests on fewer starting days than four times its number of days says too little history.
A small sample
Only coins in today's list have a record here; coins that left the list before 1 Oct 2026 are missing, which tends to make past results look better than they were for the coins of that time. Each coin's ordinary-day row shares this, so compare the two.
76 flips, but they are not independent: many fall in the same market moves, so there is less evidence here than the count suggests. The numbers describe the past and are not a forecast, and nothing here is advice.